022
FXUS61 KLWX 010055
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
855 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly push through the region this afternoon and
evening bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few showers
linger Wednesday morning with dry high pressure settling back in for
the afternoon. Warm and dry conditions continue Thursday before
shower and thunderstorm chances return with another front Friday
into the start of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 0830 PM, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms
extends from north-central Maryland southwestward to just west
of Charlottesville. These showers and storms have formed along a
pre-frontal trough, and will slowly progress eastward and
weaken through the remainder of the evening. Dry conditions are
expected during the second half of the night, with temperatures
dropping back into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Some patchy fog may
be possible late tonight in some of the more sheltered valley
locations to the west of the Blue Ridge that received rain this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper troughing will progress off to our south and east
tomorrow. Subsidence in the wake of the departing trough will
lead to dry conditions and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will
reach highs in he upper 70s and lower 80s, and winds will be
out of the northwest at around 10 mph.

Upper level ridging firmly builds over the area Thursday leading to
a continuation of warm and dry conditions. 850 mb temperatures will
be back up around +13 to +17 degrees C with PWAT values around 1".
Meanwhile, a moisture starved cold front will sit across western
portions of the forecast area acting as a catalyst for perhaps an
isolated mountain shower or thunderstorm. Elsewhere across the
region expect dry conditions with passing fairly weather strato-
cumulus during the peak heating of the day. High temperatures will
remain above average in the low to mid 80s with 70s over the
mountains. Metro areas will be a tad warmer with highs closer to 90
degrees. Lows Thursday night will fall back into the mid to upper
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mostly dry period on Friday will soon be met with increasing
moisture ahead of the next front system early Saturday and through
much of the weekend. The front will slowly move through the Mid-
Atlantic region during the weekend, with QPF totals reaching nearly
an inch in localized areas. Some isolated instances of flooding will
be possible with increase precipitation and the drier antecedent
conditions across the area. Convection should be fairly weak if it
were to occur this weekend given the lack of instability parameters.
More afternoon, summertime precipitation will likely spawn Monday
and Tuesday with a lingering boundary nearby off to the south of the
area.

Temperatures will fluctuate late this week into early next weekend
with the cold front passage. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on
Friday will be followed by low to mid 60s by Saturday. A progressive
warmup will follow Sunday into early next week with highs in the low
to mid 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 0830 PM a broken line of showers and a few thunderstorms
extends from east of HGR to just west of CHO. This line of
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to press
slowly eastward and gradually weaken through the first half of
the night. Some brief MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible
with the any showers or storms, but prevailing VFR conditions
are expected. Some fog also can`t be ruled out at MRB or CHO
closer to daybreak.

VFR conditions are expected to continue Wednesday despite a few
lingering morning showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
for terminals south and east of KDCA and KCHO. 12z model
guidance has trended drier as strong upper level ridging/high
pressure build back into the region. Southwesterly winds today
will shift to northwesterly winds on Wednesday. Winds gust
between 10-15 knots this afternoon with winds gusting up to 20
knots at DCA. Winds diminish overnight before remaining light on
Wednesday, blowing between 5-10 knots.

VFR conditions are expected through Friday, with sub-VFR ceilings
possible Saturday as increasing showers approach the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs continue through midnight for southwest winds 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to 20 kts at times. A line of showers and a few
storms is approaching from the west this evening. This activity
is expected to slowly weaken as it moves toward the waters, but
gusts to around 30 knots along with lightning may be possible in
any storm that moves over the waters this evening.

A few showers will linger near the waters Wednesday morning as
an additional piece of upper level energy swings through. Winds
will shift to the northwest in the wake of the front and will
likely stay below SCA criteria.

Marginal SCA conditions could occur in channeling on the bay
Thursday and Friday afternoon/evening. Otherwise no marine hazards
are expected with south winds Thursday switching to the southeast
Friday.

Marginal SCA winds will be possible through the weekend. SCAs may be
needed during this period as another front passes through.

&&


.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP/EST
LONG TERM...ADM
AVIATION...KJP/ADM/EST
MARINE...KJP/ADM/EST