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000
FXUS64 KLZK 221105 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Cooler than normal temperatures will persist across the area
through tonight as sfc ridging remains in the area and mid-level
flow is still out of the NW.

Sfc ridging will begin to move southeast of the area on Tuesday
with the H500 flow becoming less amplified. Warmer temperatures
can be expected and S-SW winds will be gusty at times.

From late Tue into Wed, a new mid-level trough will progress east
from the Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes. This feature,
along with an associated cold front approaching the state from
the NW, will support limited chances for showers/storms, mainly
across northern parts of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A frontal bndry is fcst to stall out acrs the Natural State on Wed
and bcm quasi-stationary, providing a focus for sctd rain chcs into
Thu. The bndry wl start to lift back to the north later Thu and Thu
night in response to a dvlp storm sys over the central Plains. This
wl allow warmer and more humid airmass to return to the FA.

The remainder of the period is setting up to be an active one. The
upper flow pattern wl transition to the SW later in the week. A
series of SWT`s wl lift to the northeast and bring severe rounds of
showers/storms to much of AR. Latest trends cont to show that the NW
half of the state wl be the focus of the highest QPF thru the
weekend, and cumulative amounts wl be monitored for the potential
of flash flooding concerns.

Timing and extent of coverage are still inconsistent between the GFS
and ECMWF solutions. There rmns a concern for some strong and/or svr
storms as well. However, the primary threats wl come into better
focus in the days ahead as additional model data is analyzed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period, with S-SW winds
increasing to 5-10 kts by 18z. Some gusts approaching 20 kts are
possible across N AR terminals through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  47  76  55 /   0   0  10  20
Camden AR         69  44  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       68  48  76  49 /   0   0  10  20
Hot Springs AR    69  46  76  58 /   0   0   0  20
Little Rock   AR  70  48  77  60 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     69  46  75  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      69  47  76  57 /   0   0   0  20
Mountain Home AR  69  46  77  49 /   0   0  20  20
Newport AR        67  46  75  57 /   0   0  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     68  46  75  58 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   70  46  77  57 /   0   0   0  20
Searcy AR         68  43  75  56 /   0   0   0  20
Stuttgart AR      67  47  75  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-103-112-113-123-203-212-213-223-313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...67