698
FXUS64 KLZK 291125
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
625 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

CURRENTLY:

As of 3AM CDT, a large complex of rain continues to move across
southern and eastern Arkansas while another corridor of rain with
a few isolated thunderstorms continues to move northeastward
across west-central Arkansas into northern Arkansas.

TODAY (MONDAY):

An upper lvl trof axis will sweep over the state helping to assist
the remnant rain and isolated storm activity to push eastward out of
the state by Monday late afternoon into Monday evening, a few model
solutions do show the redevelopment of showers and a few
thunderstorms across the eastern flank of the state, especially
northeastern Arkansas so holding on to POP chances across much of
eastern Arkansas through Monday evening before the activity will
move into Tennessee and Mississippi. At the sfc, a cold front will
move into the northwestern portion of Arkansas before stalling out
and becoming a stationary front.

Expect rain and isolated thunderstorm activity to continue tracking
eastward overall across the state as the remaining leftovers of
activity will be mostly scattered across central and mostly eastern
Arkansas. As mentioned above, a possibility of the redevelopment of
rain and a few isolated thunderstorms across eastern Arkansas,
especially across northeastern Arkansas

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT:

An upper lvl ridge begins to build back over the Natural State in
tandem with a sfc stationary boundary from Monday night across
northwestern Arkansas that will lift northward as a warm front into
the Mid-Western region of the CONUS away from the region.

Expect dry conditions statewide on Tuesday with cloud cover
decreasing throughout the day becoming mostly sunny across the
entire state by Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures in respect to both low and high temperatures on Monday
will be near normal for this time of the year while becoming
slightly above average moving into Tuesday given dry conditions,
upper lvl ridging, and abundant warming.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Broad H500 troughing wl be in place acrs the Wrn half of the CONUS
by mid-week, w/ mean S/Wrly upper flow overspreading the Srn Cntrl
US. A broad region of lee cyclonic sfc flow remains progged to
develop under the approaching trof acrs High Cntrl Plains over Wrn
KS/Ern CO. Stronger low-lvl ascent via WAA/isentropic left invof the
developing sfc low should drive more widespread PoPs during the
day Wed and Thurs, including scattered thunderstorms.

By Fri, the aforementioned sfc low wl be quickly advancing Nwrd
under an upper level perturbation, pivoting thru the mean troughing
flow. The asctd trailing cdfrnt wl lkly extend S/Wwrd fm the Upper
Midwest thru the Ozark Plateau and acrs the Srn Plains into OK. The
00Z suite of GFS/ECMWF has reduced the intensity of this cdfrnt, w/
the bndry approaching N/Wrn AR early Fri mrng, and eventually
stalling near the Cntrl third of the state later Fri aftn. Another
round of scattered to widespread thunderstorms along and ahead of
the frnt wl be possible Fri thru Sat, however the severe threat
remains low given a lack of more prominent wind shear.

Sfc high pressure wl accompany the frnt, settling over the mid-MS
River Valley/lower OH River Valley thru the first of the weekend.
Locally drier condns should prevail thru the day Sat, w/ isolated
precip possible by the aftn.

Near the end of PD, Sun, incrsg rain chances wl be noted once again,
as sfc high pressure to the north begins to shift Ewrd, and low-lvl
Srly flow drives WAA acrs the FA.

Expect warm and muggy condns thru most of the long term PD, w/ a
reprieve from higher humidity values acrs at least the Nrn half of
the state on Fri aftn thru Sat. Daily high and low temps wl trend
above normal values initially, w/ cooler readings late in the week
under rain/cloudier condns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

All terminals will begin with CIGS in MVFR flight category. Rain
will be present at times across all terminals with this complex of
rainfall that continues to move from west to east across the state
with general dry conditions beginning to take hold across western
Arkansas. The central and southeastern terminals of KLIT, KPBF, and
KLLQ will see possible thunderstorm development this afternoon into
evening as storms would develop and push east toward Tennessee and
Mississippi. The sites of KPBF and KLLQ will experience wind shear
from Monday morning until Monday midday. Surface winds across all
terminals will become variable later into the day on Monday. CIGS
will back into VFR flight category by early Monday afternoon across
the western, northern, and central terminals. The southeastern sites
of KPBF and KLLQ are expected to have CIGS drop back down to MVFR
flight category early Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  58  82  61 /  70  20   0   0
Camden AR         78  59  85  61 /  60  10   0   0
Harrison AR       77  54  81  59 /  10   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    78  59  84  61 /  50   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  78  61  84  64 /  70  10   0   0
Monticello AR     75  62  84  64 /  80  20   0   0
Mount Ida AR      80  58  85  61 /  30  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  77  54  82  60 /  30  10   0   0
Newport AR        73  59  81  61 /  90  30   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     75  60  82  62 /  80  20   0   0
Russellville AR   79  57  84  61 /  40  10   0   0
Searcy AR         75  58  82  60 /  70  20   0   0
Stuttgart AR      74  61  81  63 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...74