Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 212333
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
633 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Overall not a lot of appreciable changes were made to the
forecast/grids this afternoon as high resolution models are in
reasonable agreement.

A frontal boundary remains located over the northeast part of the
state this afternoon with plenty of cloud cover in place. Widely
scattered showers have been noticed across the forecast area as the
air mass slowly moistens up in advance of upper low currently over
the southern plains.

Guidance continues to bring this wave eastward tonight with the main
trough axis passing over the state during the day Friday with a
closed off low straddling the Arkansas/Louisiana border. Models
remain consistent and keep the deepest moisture across the southern
half of the state with a fairly sharp QPF gradient to the north.

QPF could approach a half inch across the southern most counties
with areas along the Missouri border likely remaining dry during the
duration of the event. System pulls out Friday night taking any
precipitation with it and followed by brief upper ridging for
Saturday. Temperatures will continue to run a little below seasonal
averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

After a fair and seasonably mild Sun, the pattern will shift early
week as a large upper trough digs into the Four Corners region and
supports the rapid deepening of a lee cyclone centered over Wrn KS.
Locally, Srly flow will strengthen as a result with modest low-level
moisture advection expected, yielding dewpoint temps in the 50s for
most with values around 60 F over Srn sections.

Rain and thunder will increase W-to-E late Sun evening as large
scale forcing for ascent associated with an ejecting lead shortwave
begins to overspread the area, although the heaviest rainfall will
hold off until Mon when a cold front moves thru the state. PWAT
values will max out between 1 and 1.5 inches ahead of this front,
which is slightly above climatological norms, with 1 to 2 inches of
QPF expected (locally higher amounts possible, especially over the
SErn half of AR). Flooding will be possible, especially if the
system slows from what current guidance suggests and QPF ends up
being higher as some solutions suggest.

Regarding severe storm potential: guidance maintains impressive
dynamics with fast tropospheric flow aloft and strong deep-layer
shear, but as with previous cycles, limitations in more substantial
moisture return will largely suppress instability unless the system
slows and allows for a greater influx of warm/moist air in the pre-
frontal warm sector. The GFS/GEFS hint at this with a slower
progression depicted in the last few runs, but even these slower
solutions hold MUCAPE values at or below 500 J/kg for the area with
higher values noted farther S across portions of LA/MS.

Steepening mid-level lapse rates could offset what would otherwise
be unfavorable thermodynamic profiles, but to what degree that
happens remains unclear. A high-shear-low-CAPE scenario may support
some low-end severe threat, so for the sake of continuity, will
continue offering a mention of this for Ern/SErn AR on Mon. Damaging
winds appear to be the most likely hazard with some marginally
severe hail possible depending on storm morphology.

Most rain/thunder will exit to the E Mon night into Tues morning,
although lingering showers will be possible across Ern sections thru
the remainder of Tues. Sfc ridging will build in late in the period
with temps remaining near to slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Light showers are across portions of north and central Arkansas. A
stationary front is across north Arkansas and will move north
late tonight as a warm front. An upper level system will approach
from the west and bring an increase in chances for showers,
especially across the south. Rain chances will increase in central
sections during the day Friday. VFR and MVFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     48  69  43  62 /  20  30   0   0
Camden AR         52  61  47  66 /  80  80   0   0
Harrison AR       45  69  37  61 /  10  30   0   0
Hot Springs AR    52  65  46  66 /  60  60   0   0
Little Rock   AR  54  68  47  66 /  50  60   0   0
Monticello AR     54  61  49  65 /  70  80  10   0
Mount Ida AR      52  67  45  67 /  70  40   0   0
Mountain Home AR  45  70  39  62 /  10  30   0   0
Newport AR        50  66  43  60 /  10  30   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     53  62  47  63 /  60  80   0   0
Russellville AR   52  70  44  67 /  30  30   0   0
Searcy AR         50  67  43  62 /  30  40   0   0
Stuttgart AR      54  62  47  61 /  40  70   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...51


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