Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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685 FXUS64 KLZK 010817 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 317 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Recent IR sat imgry depicted a broad cirrus shield moving acrs N/Wrn AR fm ongoing decaying convection in N/Ern OK and N/Wrn AR. Some precip activity wl lkly linger acrs N/Wrn AR thru the remaining overnight hours, w/ a downward trend in convective intensity and coverage expected towards 12Z this mrng. Thru the day today, developing sfc cyclonic flow acrs the OK/TX panhandle and CO frnt range wl yield broad Srly flow over the Srn Cntrl US. An asctd stationary frnt, extending E-N/Ewrd over Ern OK and the Ozark Plateau initially, wl begin to advance Nwrd as a wrmfrnt this aftn. Strong WAA wl lkly yield some of the warmest temps yet this Spring, w/ fcst readings in the mid to upper 80s acrs much of the state. PoPs today wl lkly remain confined to far Wrn and N/Wrn AR, w/ covg and magnitude dcrsg by the later mrng to early aftn hrs. Thurs, higher Chc PoPs are set to resume acrs the FA as a shortwave perturbation maneuvers thru broader longwave troughing H500 flow acrs the Cont Divide. Scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms wl be lkly acrs the Wrn half of the state Thurs mrng to aftn, w/ precip covg moving Ewrd by the later evng to overnight hours. Some areas of locally heavy rainfall may be seen, particularly fm S/Wrn to Srn Cntrl AR, and some local flooding issues may arise. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 With an active subtropical jet, southerly flow and a warm/moist airmass will have a hold of the area at the end of the week with continued off and on rain chances. A cold front will attempt to drop into the state by the weekend and provide an axis for additional shower and thunderstorm development. Rain will not be continuous with heaviest amounts looking to remain north of the forecast area. Any severe weather chances will depend on the recovery period of instability in between rounds. Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the 80s and lows generally in the 60s through the weekend increasing to the lower 90s by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Broad cirrus shield was beginning to move into the Wrn portions of the FA from ongoing precip in N/Ern OK. Expect VFR condns to prevail thru the night w/ incrsg high cloud cover at most areas. Some patchy fog and reduced VISBY`s may be seen at select Cntrl terminals, but confidence remains low. Winds should settle out overnight, w/ Srly flow resuming on Wed and VFR condns prevailing thru the end of the PD. /72/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 86 64 82 65 / 0 0 50 80 Camden AR 88 64 77 65 / 0 10 80 70 Harrison AR 82 62 78 60 / 20 0 60 70 Hot Springs AR 87 64 77 64 / 10 10 80 80 Little Rock AR 88 65 81 67 / 0 0 70 80 Monticello AR 88 67 81 67 / 0 0 60 70 Mount Ida AR 86 64 76 63 / 10 10 90 80 Mountain Home AR 83 62 81 61 / 10 0 50 70 Newport AR 86 64 84 66 / 0 0 40 70 Pine Bluff AR 87 64 81 66 / 0 0 60 80 Russellville AR 87 64 78 64 / 10 10 70 70 Searcy AR 86 62 81 64 / 0 0 50 70 Stuttgart AR 86 66 82 67 / 0 0 60 80 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...72 LONG TERM....61 AVIATION...72