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000
FXUS64 KMAF 141753
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1253 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 14/18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED TO IMPACT KCNM, KFST, AND KPEQ THROUGH AT
LEAST 15/23Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND RADAR DATA ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
TEMPO GROUPS AT KCNM AND KPEQ. MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA AND BLDU
ARE EXPECTED, WITH ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS.
SHORT TERM DATA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS MORE THAN 35 KNOTS...WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. AT KHOB, KMAF, AND KINK,
THERE`S ABOUT A 1 IN 4 CHANCE OF GETTING SOME TSRA BETWEEN 19Z
AND 00Z. NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH
NEVERTHELESS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT KHOB
AND KMAF AROUND 15Z OR SO WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING LOW LEVEL JET MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS, AND
HERE WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...

SEE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE PECOS
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO VERY
SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CUT OFF LOW OVER MEXICO WILL WOBBLE EAST TODAY BRINGING
WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE AREA WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY FRIDAY PASSING OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION SATURDAY.  THIS WILL DISPLACE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECOVER FROM THE LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT LAST WEEK.  WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BEFORE
90S RETURN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.  GUIDANCE TRYING TO GO 100 ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN... HAVE
KEPT IT BELOW BUT IT MAY TRY TO PRESS THE CENTURY MARK.  WILL SEE
100+ TEMPS ALONG THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS MID WEEK.

CURRENTLY HAVE A FEW STORMS MOVING NORTH ACROSS RIO GRANDE INTO THE
AREA... WILL LEAVE POPS IN FOR THIS MORNING.  THE AIRMASS REMAINS
DRY SO EXPECT MUCH OF WHAT FALLS EVAPORATES BEFORE IT REACHES THE
GROUND.  HAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  DID HAVE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE DAVIS MTNS MONDAY... BUT EXPECT MORE
COVERAGE TODAY BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF 1-20.  MODEL QPF DEVELOPS STORMS
OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TRANS PECOS AND TRACKS IT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN... LOOKS REASONABLE SO  HAVE RAISED POPS
TODAY ACROSS THE DAVIS MTNS... MARFA PLATEAU... BIG BEND... AND
PECOS COUNTY.  SWODY2 INDICATES COULD SEE SOME STORMS EAST WEDNESDAY
AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED LOW POPS OVER EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES BUT
MOST WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION.  THE NEXT SHOT AT RAIN WILL BE WITH
NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.  LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
INCREASING POPS AND DECENT QPF... WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT EAST.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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