907
FXUS64 KMAF 020522
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1222 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

WV imagery shows the upper trough moving through SoCal/Baja at 14Z,
leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow
aloft.  At the surface, KMAF had a dewpoint of 66F, making it feel
like a dry day in Houston.  KMAF 12Z RAOB came in w/mucapes in
excess of 3500 J/kg, w/a cap that should be eroded completely by
18Z.  Mid-lvl lapse rates are ~ 8 C/km, and judging from activity
yesterday, this would be expected.  The HRRR has been consistent in
developing the Pecos supercell ~ 20Z, which should peel off to the
east as a right-mover, then unzipping a line of splitting/left-
movers northward through the Permian Basin shortly thereafter. While
deep-layer environmental shear remains tepid, plenty of cold pools
are anticipated which will locally enhance/strengthen cells.  KMAF
will be doing an 18Z upper air flight, which should show steeper
lapse rates as the upper trough approaches.  Latest HRRR suggests we
may not get off a 00Z flight anyway.  Convective activity should
continue through late this evening, tapering off to the east by 06Z
or shortly thereafter.  Abundant boundary layer moisture, clouds,
and elevated winds should keep overnight lows 6-8F above normal.

Thursday, a cold front will approach the area, but looks to stall
just north of the CWA due to diurnal heating.  Instead, increased
westerlies will shunt the dryline/boundary-layer moisture east.
Single-digit RH west of the dryline will result in elevated fire wx
conditions.  See fire wx discussion below for more details.
Thicknesses decrease a little, shaving a couple of degrees off
today`s highs, but temperatures should still come in ~ 5-7F above
normal.

Thursday night looks dry and uneventful and the cold front backdoors
into the northeast.  Mostly clear skies and the absence of an
appreciable LLJ will allow overnight mins to cool to only 3-5F above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The end of this week is expected to be the beginning of a return of
more active weather across much of the area. To start the period, a
large upper-low is forecast to be positioned over southern Manitoba
and Ontario with a shortwave rounding its base across the central
Rocky Mountains. Another shortwave trough should be positioned over
southern California with southwesterly flow aloft over the southern
Great Plains. With the trough passing to the north, a cold front may
try to push into northern portions of the region. This front isn`t
expected to bring much in terms of cooler temperatures but may
result in a few thunderstorms across northeastern portions of the
region. Otherwise, temperatures remain warm in the 80s and 90s for
the majority with plentiful sunshine.

This weekend continues the trend into a more active weather pattern.
The southern California trough begins to broaden and lift into the
central Great Plains Saturday. This provides an additional push to
the cold front from Friday over our northern tier resulting in the
front sagging further south until it stalls along the higher
terrain. Along and behind this front should be the focus for more
widespread thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon through the
evening. There may be a threat for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms given some modest shear and instability. The more
significant threat with these thunderstorms will be very heavy
rainfall. PWAT anomalies are expected to range from 0.5"-1" above
normal, meaning that there is going to be ample rainfall potential
with any thunderstorms. A similar threat for thunderstorms is
expected again on Sunday as a stronger shortwave trough digs into
the Great Basin. Once again, heavy rainfall is going to be the main
concern as another round of thunderstorms is expected during the
afternoon and evening for much of the region. Temperatures should be
a bit cooler thanks to the cold front and rainfall potential with
some 70s returning while the remainder remain in the 80s.

The shortwave trough across the Great Basin ejects into the central
Great Plains to start the new week. This ushers in the return of
drier and warmer weather to the forecast as ridging gradually makes
its return to the southern Great Plains. Mostly sunny skies and
temperatures in the 80s and 90s once again on Monday with 90s
becoming even more widespread by Tuesday and Wednesday to close out
the forecast.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Southerly return flow has overtaken all terminals and should
persist through the overnight hours. This flow has brought low
clouds in already to MAF, and guidance suggests MAF will be the
only terminal to see the clouds. For now, they are at low MVFR
CIGs but could dip into IFR levels at times throughout the night.
All other sites remain VFR through the period. West winds take
over shortly after sunrise and persist throughout the day. A cold
front noses into the area by the end of the period which is set to
bring a east- northeast wind shift.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through early this evening for
much of southeast New Mexico and the western higher elevations. This
area is where the best overlap of elevated wind speeds and the very
dry airmass behind the dryline overlap. It is expected to remain
very dry across the western half of the region through the end of
this week and into the weekend as it`ll remain behind the dryline
with only poor to fair overnight recoveries. Fuels remain very dry
across southeast New Mexico and far West Texas due to the lack of
rain over the last month or two. This keeps the threat of elevated
to near critical fire weather across these areas though relatively
weak winds should keep the overall fire weather threat a bit lower.
Further to the east, moisture remains relatively high and recent
rains keep fire weather concerns low. A potential area of concern is
the threat of lightning starts across portions of the higher
elevations and adjacent plains. Dry fuels are still present in many
of these locations and afternoon thunderstorms are possible today
and again Friday and through the weekend. Lightning starts may be
possible as a result though overall spread may be limited by weaker
wind speeds. Fire weather concerns are expected to ramp up again
next week as a strong shortwave trough passes north of the region.
This not only expands the critical relative humidity across most the
area but increases wind speeds. Given very dry fuels with western
extent, the greatest concern is favored across this region with a
gradual decrease in fire weather concerns as you move east where
recent rainfalls have improved fuels.

-Chehak

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               93  59  87  61 /   0   0  20  20
Carlsbad                 89  55  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   96  65  92  67 /   0   0  20  10
Fort Stockton            93  59  92  64 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           80  57  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    88  54  87  56 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    84  48  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     91  59  89  62 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   91  59  89  63 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     93  57  93  62 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...16