683
FXUS64 KMAF 021549
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1049 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Once again, efficient moisture return and convective outflow from
yesterday`s storms has shoved the dryline back up against the western
high terrain. However, the dryline will mix all the way into the
western Low Rolling Plains and San Angelo`s area this afternoon
thanks to an upper trough ejecting from the Rockies into the north-
central Plains. This keeps our weather significantly quieter than
yesterday with most of the area just seeing a typical sunny, hot,
and dry day. On the heels of this trough, it will help to push a
cold front into the area today, and could start to nose into the
northern Permian Basin in the late afternoon/early evening time
frame. How this front evolves Thursday evening/night will play a
large role in how Friday shakes out. That being said, the front and
dryline interactions this evening will likely fire off a few storms,
with a storm or two possible for Scurry/Mitchell counties. More
importantly, the convective outflow from these storms would help
push the front into our area and many of the high resolution models
take the front all the way to the Pecos Valley.

With uncertainty in how far the front makes it and how much it
retreats/mixes north/east Friday, there is also a fair amount of
uncertainty in both high temperatures (in the Permian Basin) and
where any storms set up. For now, the thinking is a few more storms
could fire off along the dryline or front, primarily across the far
eastern Permian Basin. More details will likely come once it`s
determined what tonight`s front will do.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A potentially active weekend is ahead of us with the threat of more
severe weather and flooding for portions of the area. Deep low level
moisture will have returned to the area by Saturday morning with
dewpoints >60F east of the higher terrain. At the same time, a cold
front will be making its way south across the TX PH reaching our CWA
boundary with LUB around mid morning. The front will slow its
forward progress with daytime heating and height falls ahead of an
approaching shortwave. As we reach peak heating by mid afternoon
Saturday thunderstorms will develop along and behind the cold front.
It`s still a little far out in time to know where the front will be,
but models are suggesting convective initiation somewhere across the
Permian Basin. There will be plenty of instability and shear for
storms to become severe with large hail and damaging winds the main
threats. PWATs will be abnormally high for early May suggesting a
threat for heavy rain and flooding, especially if storms train along
the front.

We could see some lingering clouds and showers Sunday keep
tempertures down to around normal. Zonal flow aloft along with
several storm systems passing to our north next week will mean a
return to very dry and hot conditions. It`s looking more likely we
could see temperatures in the 100s across the Trans Pecos and Big
Bend by mid week. Break out the sunscreen and swimsuits, summer is
about here!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours.  Latest sfc analysis
puts the dryline just west of KMAF, mixing east. We may pop a few
cu at KMAF before the dryline passes, but otherwise few clouds
expected. Cold front progression overnight is still up in the air,
but latest NAM suggests it`ll make it through KMAF/KHOB/KINK at
least. NAM tries to bring in low clouds, but the NBM holds off,
and so will we.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               93  61  87  62 /   0  10  20  20
Carlsbad                 90  55  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   96  65  92  67 /   0   0  20  10
Fort Stockton            93  59  92  65 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           80  57  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    88  55  89  57 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    84  49  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     92  60  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   92  60  90  65 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     93  57  94  65 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...44