244
FXUS64 KMAF 101123
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The first piece of the rain puzzle is getting into place as a cold
front moves through the Permian Basin early this morning. The front
will move west pushing up against the mountains today, then continue
on to far West Texas tonight advecting in plenty of low level
moisture. This moisture and the higher terrain west of the Pecos
River will help widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop in the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos this afternoon with
the help of daytime heating.

Convection increases overnight as an upper low over the western
United States sends an upper level disturbance towards West Texas
and eastern New Mexico. Models are in good agreement that the
disturbance will cause showers and storms to initially develop from
southeastern New Mexico down through the Trans Pecos, then spread
eastward into the Permian Basin during the day and continuing into
the night before moving into the Big Country. Precipitable water
values are very high for this time of year meaning there is enough
moisture to present a flash flooding threat. However the quick
movement of the disturbance and the scattered nature of the
convection is not favorable for a widespread heavy rainfall event
like a slow moving front or MCS might provide. Therefore any
flooding should be localized in nature. Forecast soundings do not
show impressive instability so there does not appear to be a
significant severe weather threat either though this time of year
you can never rule a few storms could drop marginally large hail.

Persistent cloud cover and weak cold air advection will keep temps
unseasonably cool today with highs in the 70s everywhere but the Big
Bend. Throw in increasing rainfall Saturday and temperatures cool
further with highs struggling to get out of the 60s in southeastern
New Mexico and the Permian Basin. Not bad for the middle of May.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The upper low that will have brought some rain to the area will
eject out over the Plains late Saturday and into Sunday morning.
Rain chances gradually diminish over the course of Sunday and sit
near zero by early Monday. Temperatures stay in the 80s for most on
Sunday and Monday with 90s and even low 100s across the Rio Grande
and Big Bend. Upper level ridging takes hold for Tuesday and
Wednesday bringing temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s for
most. The end of the coming week sees rain chances rebound for the
eastern half of the CWA where moisture return looks to be better.
Much of this will be determined by the track of the next low that
looks to move through the area.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

MVFR CIGs remain at most TAF sites this morning. These conditions
will remain for at least the next 6 hours before improving to VFR
after 18Z. Lower CIGs redevelop near 06Z with a chance for SHRA at
CNM. VIS will remain unrestricted through the period with easterly
winds.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               77  60  67  58 /  10  40  90  50
Carlsbad                 74  59  69  58 /  10  60  70  40
Dryden                   79  65  79  66 /  50  40  60  50
Fort Stockton            75  62  77  63 /  50  40  80  50
Guadalupe Pass           67  56  69  56 /  10  50  70  30
Hobbs                    73  56  64  55 /  10  50  80  50
Marfa                    80  55  83  53 /  40  40  70  40
Midland Intl Airport     74  60  66  59 /  20  50  90  50
Odessa                   74  61  67  60 /  20  50  90  50
Wink                     78  61  72  61 /  20  60  80  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10