Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 221623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221623
FLZ000-221800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Areas affected...Far southeast FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221623Z - 221800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginally severe storm with hail up to around 1.25
inches in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph will be possible over
the greater Miami metro area during the next 2-3 hours. A watch is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...A southward-sagging cold front extends from Palm Beach
to mainland Monroe counties as of 16Z. Surface temperatures ahead of
it across the remaining portion of the peninsula have warmed into
the mid 80s F while dew points have mixed into the upper 60s. This
is supporting moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg. A
recent increase in agitated CU and small CBs along it suggest that a
storm or two may develop despite the prevailing westerly low-level
wind profile. 25-30 kt effective bulk shear, primarily driven by an
increase in speed with height, should be sufficient for a marginal
severe threat. With 500-mb temperatures near -11 C, hail magnitudes
from 0.75-1.25 inches, along with locally strong wind gusts of 45-60
mph should be the expected hazards.

..Grams/Smith.. 04/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

LAT...LON   26028042 26258018 26217997 25608005 25428019 25448042
            25758049 26028042
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