029
ACUS11 KWNS 061647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061647
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-061845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0649
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Areas affected...southern KS...western/central OK...and eastern TX
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 061647Z - 061845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...PDS Tornado Watch issuance will be needed ahead of this
portion of the dryline during the early afternoon. At least a few
long-track, discrete supercells are expected, becoming capable of
producing intense (EF3+) tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...16Z surface analysis placed the dryline from near
Garden City, KS to Lubbock, TX, with the Pacific cold front lagging
westward with southern extent in the southern High Plains. Airmass
continues to destabilize ahead of the dryline, with MLCIN becoming
weak into at least western OK and the TX Panhandle where
boundary-layer warming has been more prominent in cloud breaks.

The expectation is for initial dryline/Pacific front development to
occur in southwest KS and build south into the eastern TX
Panhandle/western OK vicinity by late afternoon. Ample low to
deep-layer shear will support several supercells with very large
hail, tornadoes, and severe gusts probable. The impinging of an
intense upper jet from NM into western OK over the next several
hours, along with strengthening of low-level flow this evening, will
yield an increasingly favorable kinematic environment for long-track
and intense supercells capable of significant tornadoes, especially
with southern extent in western/central OK.

..Grams/Smith.. 05/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   38020038 38419902 38439838 38209755 37769729 37349720
            35949717 34649722 34029793 34069974 34280034 35140050
            36740063 38020038