825
FXUS64 KMEG 080846
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
346 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A cold front will move into the Mid-South tonight. Ahead of the
cold front, thunderstorms will develop and move across the region.
Some of the thunderstorms are expected to be severe with damaging
winds, large hail and tornadoes possible tonight. The cold front
will move into central Mississippi on Thursday with scattered
thunderstorms confined to portions of north Mississippi. High
pressure will build into the region by Friday with dry weather and
below normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South early this morning
with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. A frontal boundary
currently extends across southeast Missouri through western
Arkansas and into southern Oklahoma. A severe thunderstorm is
moving across central Arkansas at this time and a Tornado Watch
remains in effect for portions of Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel,
west Tennessee and northwest Mississippi until 6 AM CDT this
morning.

The thunderstorms in Arkansas will move into the Mid-South and
eventually weaken later this morning. The frontal boundary will
start moving east this afternoon with more thunderstorms expected
to form ahead of the front and move into the region. Some of the
thunderstorms that form this afternoon could be severe. Temperatures
will be quite warm today with highs in the 80s.

The cold front will move into the Mid-South tonight. Additional
thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front and move through the
region. Some of these thunderstorms are expected to be severe with
damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes possible. In addition,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over the northeast portion of
the Mid-South. A Flood Watch has been issued for this area from 7
AM CDT this morning until 7 AM CDT Thursday morning. Temperatures
will remain warm tonight with lows Thursday morning in the mid to
upper 60s.

The cold front will move into central Mississippi on Thursday with
scattered thunderstorms possible over southern sections of the
Mid-South into Thursday night. Temperatures will be a little
cooler on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 80s. Cooler and
drier air will start to move into northern sections of the Mid-
South Thursday night with rain ending across portions of north
Mississippi.

High pressure will build into the region on Friday bringing a
period of dry weather and below normal temperatures for Friday
through Sunday. An upper level low will move across the southern
Plains on Monday and across the region on Tuesday with scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible both days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions will remain across the airspace through around 10Z
when ceilings begin to lower to MVFR conditions. Catching the
timing of VCTS/VCSH at MEM/MKL was a bit tricky tonight as CAMs
are in decent disagreement and have been over performing over the
past several hours. VCSH/VCTS is possible at JBR over the next
several hours, though confidence was not high enough to include
in TAF. Southwest winds look to begin gusting up to 25 kts across
all terminals, shortly after sunrise tomorrow as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of a cold frontal movement. Another,
stronger line of thunderstorms looks to approach and move across
JBR/MEM/MKL beginning at around 22Z tomorrow evening. A PROB30 was
added at each of these terminals for -TSRA. LLWS also looks to
move across MEM around 03Z tomorrow with the movement of the
aforementioned front.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Thursday morning
     for TNZ003-004-021-022.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...AEH