554
FXUS62 KMFL 020607
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
207 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

We will continue to see a teaser of the upcoming wet season in the
short term period, with showers and a few afternoon thunderstorms
possible each day. Thursday will generally be less active, as
drier air starts to filter in with a mid-level ridge building over
the area in the wake of a trough passing through today. Convective
activity will generally initiate along East Coast sea breeze
boundaries before moving inland and over the Gulf Coast areas
later in the day. The primary hazards with any thunderstorm would
be heavy downpours and gusty winds. Other than the convective
activity, conditions will be pleasant with an easterly breeze and
mostly clear skies.

Temperatures will range from the low to mid 80s over the East
Coast metro areas to the upper 80s and near 90 over the interior
sections today and tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

As we wrap up the week, the trough will make it`s exit eastward into
the Atlantic as a mid-level ridge gradually moves into the
Southeast. With easterly flow and remnant moisture, there is a
chance for isolated light showers late Thursday before a dry day on
Friday. Through the majority of the long term, a weak body of
surface high pressure will have an influence on the conditions over
the Peninsula, thus keeping it drier and warm. The high will be
situated over the western Atlantic which will lead to consistent
easterly flow near the surface. With the E/SE flow and a quick
moving shortwave trough, there will be a chance (15-30%) for
isolated to scattered showers over the weekend, due to modest
moisture advection and pooling. By late Monday, strong, mid-level
ridging builds back in over the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. There
is potential for daily isolated showers and storms enhanced by
gulf and sea breezes as we move into the new week. At this point,
however, ensembles indicate that next week will begin mostly dry
as we quickly move towards the wet season which begins mid-month.

Temperatures will be near to just above normal through the extended
period. The highs will rise into the upper 80s across SW FL and
interior, while remaining in the low to mid 80s along the Atlantic
Coast. The overnight lows will be in the 60s, except for low to
mid 70s across the east coast metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 204 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR prevail through 13-14Z, then another round of showers is
possible, especially early in the afternoon with sea breeze
development. Most of the thunderstorm activity during the late
afternoon hours should remain further inland and away form the
terminals. Winds will ESE around 6kt through 14Z, then in the
10-12kt range for the rest of the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Mostly benign conditions will continue through the end of the
week. There will be chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
each day, which could create locally hazardous conditions. Other
than the convective threat, there is not expected to be concerns
for marine conditions. Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet
in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters.
Winds will be around 10-15 kts out of the east.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

A high risk of rip currents will be present for the Palm beaches
today with a lingering swell and onshore flow. The rest of the
coast will see a moderate risk and it is likely that at least an
elevated risk continues for all beaches along the Atlantic coast
through the end of the week as breezy onshore flow continues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            84  73  84  73 /  20  10  10   0
West Kendall     86  70  85  70 /  20  10  10   0
Opa-Locka        86  72  86  72 /  20  10  10   0
Homestead        85  72  84  72 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  83  73  83  73 /  20  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  84  73  83  73 /  20  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   87  72  87  73 /  20  10  10   0
West Palm Beach  84  71  83  71 /  20  10   0   0
Boca Raton       85  72  85  73 /  20  10  10  10
Naples           89  70  88  70 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...17