Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Miami, FL
000
FXUS62 KMFL 240607
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
207 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Much quieter weather is expected to close out the weekend and
start the new work-week. Deep upper level troughing dominates
across the northeastern states as an additional weak frontal
boundary pushes through the area today. This could bring a few
showers for portions of the area, although rain chances remain
quite low overall. Drier air filters in as surface flow is
expected to be northerly for a good chunk of Sunday.
Surface flow will veer more northeasterly by the evening hours
as high pressure begins to build back across the area. High
temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows
in the mid 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Mid-level ridging over the northern Caribbean Sea will continue
to build into the region for the early portion of next week. High
pressure will continue to push eastward towards the middle of the
week leading to mainly dry conditions across South Florida for the
first half of the week. While a breezy easterly wind flow will
start off the week, these winds will veer and become southeasterly
towards the middle of the week as high pressure shifts into the
western Atlantic. This will create a moderating trend in
temperatures through the middle of the week. High temperatures on
Monday will generally range from the upper 70s across the east
coast metro area to the lower 80s across Southwest Florida. By
Wednesday, high temperatures will range from the lower 80s along
the east coast to the upper 80s across interior portions of
Southwest Florida.
The next notable chance for rain comes during the Thursday-Friday
timeframe as a deepening mid-level trough gradually pushes across
the eastern half of the country. A frontal boundary will push
across the Florida peninsula through the day on Thursday. Guidance
continues to hint at broad cyclogenesis attempting to occur along
the front in the eastern Gulf of Mexico before crossing over the
Florida peninsula and into the western Atlantic on Thursday.
Uncertainty remains high for this part of the forecast as guidance
remains in disagreement with where cyclogenesis takes place and
how intense the developing area of low pressure is as it moves
through the region. At the very least, there should be enough
moisture and lift just ahead of the front to support a few
isolated to scattered showers/storms during the afternoon and
evening hours on Thursday. This setup will be monitored through
the week.
Behind the front, high pressure builds back into the region and
it should bring a return to dry conditions along with cooler
temperatures to South Florida for the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Some SCT MVFR ceilings through the period. NW winds around 10 kts
gusting 15-20 kts, gradually veering to NE by this afternoon. A
few isolated showers are possible along the east coast metro, but
chances remain too low for mention at any specific terminal.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Hazardous marine conditions remain across local waters with a
moderate to fresh northerly breeze expected today. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic waters until Monday
evening, and the Gulf Waters/Biscayne Bay until later this
morning. Dangerous seas up to around 6 to 9 feet will be possible
across the Atlantic waters through Monday evening with north to
northeasterly flow expected to end the weekend.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024
A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for all Atlantic
beaches through Monday, with an elevated risk expected for the
Gulf beaches today. While conditions will improve for the Gulf
beaches early next week, the elevated risk will likely remain for
all Atlantic beaches through at least mid-week due to lingering
swell and increasingly easterly flow. Dangerous surf conditions
are likely along the Palm beaches beginning Monday and lasting
through at least mid week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 79 68 78 69 / 10 10 0 0
West Kendall 81 65 80 65 / 10 10 0 0
Opa-Locka 80 68 80 67 / 10 10 0 0
Homestead 80 68 79 67 / 10 10 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 78 68 77 69 / 10 10 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 78 68 77 69 / 10 10 0 0
Pembroke Pines 80 67 79 66 / 10 10 0 0
West Palm Beach 77 66 77 66 / 10 10 0 0
Boca Raton 79 68 78 68 / 10 10 0 0
Naples 80 65 83 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GMZ656-657-
676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...CMF