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000
FXUS62 KMFL 120525
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
125 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

The cold front itself is just beginning to work its way into far
northwestern portions of the area, with a line of generally weak
showers being observed along the prefrontal trough, which is
currently bisecting central Lake O from SW-NE. This line has (not
surprisingly) weakened noticeably since its passage through
north-central Florida earlier in the day and this general
weakening trend will continue as it reaches SEFL in the
evening/overnight hours. Given decreasing synoptic lift combined
with some modest diurnal stabilization think lightning will be
hard to come by going forward, but will leave a slight mention of
it in the forecast as sfc-based instability remains in place
ahead of the line. Whatever is left of the frontal precipitation
field should clear the coast late tonight, with the front itself
clearing the coast in the pre-dawn hours Friday morning.

Wind gusts should be on the downward trend after sunset (and
given the current sad state of the line not expecting much
convective enhancement) so will allow the wind advisory to expire
at 8PM as scheduled.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A cold front is currently making its way down along the Florida
peninsula, with a robust line of convection currently impacting
north/central FL. Models bring this line over our area late this
evening, with scattered showers and a few strong thunderstorms
possible across northern parts of the CWA. With most of the best
dynamics and upper level support staying well north of our area,
the front will start fizzling out as it crosses South FL, with
chances for showers and storms gradually decreasing through the
night as the front moves southward. Conditions should begin to
improve early Friday morning once the front moves out over the FL
straits and surface high begins to build over the area, with a
drier, more seasonably temperate air mass filtering in.

Ahead of the front, winds remain reasonably gusty across much of
South FL, with a Wind Advisory in place for Glades, Hendry and
Palm Beach counties through 8PM tonight. Conditions improve
overnight into tomorrow once the front pushes through.

With breezy southerly to southwesterly winds prevailing today,
expect high temperatures to reach the lower 90s across much of
South FL. Conditions will be more seasonable tomorrow, with highs
in the low-mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Long range models show broad high pressure over the GOMEX to start
the period and expanding into the Florida peninsula and the western
Atlantic. This will shift winds to the northeast, with subsidence
and dry conditions resulting in a warming trend, starting this weekend.
Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 80s to around 90 for
the east coast and immediate interior areas, and low 90s over
the Gulf coast and northern interior.

The drier conditions, with little to no significant rain expected through
the forecast period, will also bring decreasing RH values. Thus, the
potential for increased fire weather risk is likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

SHRA departing away from the region as light to moderate westerly
flow continues shifting to a northwesterly direction by daybreak.
An Atlantic sea-breeze will develop by 16-18z slowly moving
inland switching winds at east coast terminals to an northeasterly
direction before winds become light and variable once again
overnight. VFR cigs wilprevail throughout the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Hazardous marine conditions continue across the local waters through
the evening as fresh to strong southerly-southeasterly breeze
continues ahead of a cold front. Conditions will improve on Friday
behind the front as high pressure builds towards the area.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Breezy southeasterly to southerly flow will maintain an elevated
risk for the Atlantic beaches today. An elevated risk may also
prevail along the Palm Beach county coast on Friday due to lingering
swell. An elevated risk may also briefly materialize on Friday for
the Gulf coast beaches as the low-lvl flow shifts northerly and
increases after the cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            84  63  80  66 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     86  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        85  62  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        85  62  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  81  63  79  66 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  82  62  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   86  62  83  65 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  81  59  78  62 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       82  61  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           81  61  83  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ069-168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ650-651-671.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ670.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...Hadi