Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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112 FXUS62 KMFL 061936 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 336 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 Surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will continue to be the main synoptic feature in the weather pattern across South Florida through the rest of this afternoon and into Tuesday. The position of the surface high will allow for the southeasterly wind flow to continue during this time frame. With just enough lower level moisture in place, sea breeze development this afternoon and then again on Tuesday afternoon will provide enough lift and support for isolated shower and thunderstorm development. The highest chances will remain over interior portions of Southwest Florida where the Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze boundaries interact with each other. With plenty of mid to upper level dry air in place, this will help to inhibit strong thunderstorm development, however, locally heavy downpours cannot be ruled out with any storm. Shower and thunderstorm activity will diminsh over the interior with the loss of diurnal heating during the evening hours. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the upper 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the mid 70s across the east coast metro areas. High temperatures on Tuesday will rise into the mid 80s across the east coast metro areas, and into the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 With the Atlantic ridge of high pressure shifting south as a frontal boundary associated with a low in northeastern Canada moves into the Atlantic from the Carolinas northward, the surface ridge axis will sit over southern Florida from mid to late week. This will enable a warming trend over several days with widespread 90 degree temperatures save for sea breeze cooled areas closer to the coast. Some inland portions of South Florida could see temperatures reach into the upper 90s, particularly on Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will remain minimal, though some convection cannot be ruled out inland. The risk of heat illness will require monitoring as early as Wednesday as heat index values start entering the triple digits. Late in the week, the next frontal boundary will move across the southeastern United States but it will lack the support to clear South Florida. Increasing moisture will lead to more shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend as the front settles over south central to southern Florida. Temperatures will cool slightly with the additional cloud cover and rainfall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Southeasterly winds will continue this afternoon across the east coast terminals and they will be gusty at times. Isolated shower and storms will be possible mainly over interior portions of Southwest Florida and they should stay away from most of the terminals. The exception to this will be at KAPF, where some shower activity could pass nearby late this afternoon into the early evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 A moderate to fresh southeasterly wind flow will remain in place through the middle of the week across the Atlantic waters while gentle to moderate southeasterly winds continue across the rest of the local waters. Winds may become southwesterly each afternoon across the Gulf waters as a Gulf breeze develops. Towards the end of the week, winds across all local waters will gradually become more southerly as a frontal boundary approaches from the north. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less through the middle of the week while they remain at 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic Coast beaches through the middle of the week as moderate onshore winds continue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 75 86 75 87 / 10 20 0 10 West Kendall 72 88 72 89 / 20 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 74 88 74 90 / 10 20 0 10 Homestead 75 86 75 88 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 75 85 75 86 / 10 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 75 86 75 87 / 10 20 0 10 Pembroke Pines 75 89 75 90 / 10 20 0 10 West Palm Beach 72 86 72 88 / 10 20 0 10 Boca Raton 74 87 74 88 / 10 20 10 10 Naples 72 88 74 90 / 20 20 0 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....RAG AVIATION...CWC