301
FXUS62 KMHX 031422
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1022 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend.
A slow moving cold front will dip south into North Carolina
this afternoon and linger over the area Saturday before
retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across
the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to
unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions
are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and
humidity as ridging builds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1000 AM Friday...Fog has lifted this morning, with 10SM
visibilities through the CWA. Models seem to be
underforecasting the wind gusts behind the back door cold front
currently over the delmarva peninsula, with observations of
20-25kts observed in NJ and delmarva. Strengthening of the
pressure gradient behind the front as it moves south into NC
will likely bring wind gusts higher than what models are
suggesting. Bumped winds up behind the back door cold front
moving through NE portions of the CWA this evening as a result.
Also bumped high temps for OBX to the mid to upper 70s (near 80
for NOBX) with light winds allowing minimal marine influence.

Previous Discussion...As of 0400 Friday...Fog that developed
overnight lingers into mid morning, but the densest fog will
begin eroding with sunrise prompting mixing of the nocturnal
inversion. SPS has been issued for the fog. Ridging aloft
remains in place over ECONUS and a mostly dry backdoor cold
front sags S through the Nern half of the FA this afternoon. The
front in conjunction with the sea/sound/river breezes will
shift winds Eerly 10-15kt behind it which will bring a
noticeable T drop. Afternoon seabreeze developing over Crystal
Coast, unimpeded by large scale flow, will penetrate well inland
through the afternoon, reaching the I95 corridor by this
evening. Previous runs of the typical pessimistic guidance
showed scattered showers popping up this afternoon along the
boundaries pushing through the FA, but have slightly backed off.
Further, forecast soundings from the same models show quite a
bit of dry air through the column. There may be enough
convergence and moisture pooling just ahead of where the front
and seabreeze meet late this afternoon to spark some showers,
but the ridging aloft should act to suppress them. Have
increased PoPs in this "convergence zone" but have kept below
mentionable in forecast text products. Highs approaching 90
inland with highs along the coast limited to mid to upper 70s by
cool air behind the backdoor front and/or seabreeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 0400 Friday...The backdoor front stalls out over the FA
tonight where it will linger through the first half of the
weekend. Another round of fog and/or stratus possible overnight
with winds expected to become light and var and ample moisture
in the low levels. Muggy lows in the mid 60s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the
Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the
first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East
Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week
drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an
increase in heat and humidity.

Saturday and Sunday...A weak front will remain over ENC Saturday
with easterly flow expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow
will limit instability development, and with drier air holding
on across the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a
mostly dry day with the exception of the coastal plain where
some isolated shower/thunderstorm development may occur.
Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than
Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler
along the coast with the onshore flow).

Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front retreats to the
north. However this will bring better moisture/instability to
the area and allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop Sunday afternoon with the most widespread rain across
the coastal plain. Similar temps expected with highs in the 70s
to low 80s.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore
early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern
Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally
enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best
chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper
70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level
thicknesses boosting Tuesday`s highs into the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week
as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However,
increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow
will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs
reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s
closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and
thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday Night/...
As of 0700 Friday...Mix of VFR and sub VFR flight cats early
this morning due to fog. VFR returns after fog dissipates in an
hr or so. VFR through the day Friday with light and variable
winds which will become predominantly onshore this afternoon
behind the seabreeze in the S and Eerly for Nern zones behind a
dry backdoor cold front sinking S from VA. Might see FEW-SCT
diurnal CU field around FL050 this afternoon ahead of the
seabreeze and front. Another round of subVFR flight cats is
expected tonight with potential for a fog/stratus event due to
moist low levels, light and variable to calm winds, and the
front which will stall over the area tonight.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected
through early next week, however increasingly unsettled
conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each
afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 1000 AM Friday...Models seem to be underforecasting the
wind gusts behind the back door cold front currently over the
delmarva peninsula, with observations of 20-25kts observed in
NJ and delmarva. Strengthening of the pressure gradient behind
the front as it moves south into NC will likely bring wind gusts
higher than what models are suggesting. Bumped winds up behind
the back door cold front moving through NE portions of the CWA
this evening as a result. MWS is likely to be issued for
Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds and the Alligator River, along
with coastal waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet this evening for a
quick wind shift from westerly to easterly and gusty conditions
behind the front. Potential exists for infrequent gusts of
30kts between 5-8pm today for the Albemarle sound, as easterly
flow results in funneling. As we get into tonight winds will
diminish due to a loss of heating.


Previous Discussion...As of 0400 Friday...Sub- SCA conditions
through the period. Light and variable winds early become Swerly
late morning 5-10kt. Mostly dry backdoor cold front sags S
through the Nern waters this afternoon, shifting winds Eerly
10-15G20kt behind it. Some gusts may approach 25kt over
Albemarle Sound, but not expecting SCA criteria gusts to
persist. Winds become more Serly 10-15kt over Sern waters where
the seabreeze circulation can be felt. Seas only 1-2 ft
throughout.

Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds,
and rivers once again.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this
weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next
week.

Winds will be easterly Saturday at 5-10 kts and then come around
to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW winds then develop Monday
through most of next week with winds increasing to 10-20 kts.
Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase
to 3-5 ft Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/RJ
SHORT TERM...CEB/RJ
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/CEB/RJ