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000
FNUS73 KMKX 221003
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Jersey Flats N Rx...WDNR
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
503 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 22.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Light southwest 20 foot winds around ignition time should become
10 to 15 MPH by middle morning, with gusts to 20 MPH. Poor smoke
dispersal conditions at ignition should quickly improve to good by
middle morning.

Gusty southwest 20 foot winds of 15 to 20 MPH, with gusts to 30
MPH, are expected this afternoon. Deep mixing heights of 4000 to
6000 feet AGL should occur as well, which will result in relative
humidity values dropping into the 20 to 25 percent range over most
of the area this afternoon. Excellent smoke dispersal values are
forecast this afternoon.

The gusty winds and very low relative humidity values will result
in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. The relative
humidity values could drop a little lower, if deeper mixing
occurs. The middle to high clouds moving in this afternoon may
limit this potential.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy frost early in
                    the morning.
Temperature.........44 at ignition...Max 64.
RH..................55 percent at ignition...Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming
                    southwest 15 to 16 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 17 mph increasing to 22 to 31
                    mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /11500 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /67500 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (109200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   4   4   4   4   9   14  19  31  43  56  67
Weather cov.....PTY PTY
Weather type....FST FST
Tstm cov........
Temp............35  37  44  50  55  59  61  62  63  64  63  63
RH..............75  70  55  46  38  33  29  27  26  25  26  27
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..4   5   6   8   10  12  14  15  16  17  17  17
20 FT wind gust.6   6   10  12  16  18  20  21  23  24  25  24
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.6 4.7 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 4.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.12  13  13  14  17  22  26  29  30  30  31  31
Haines index....5   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10004   4   12  20  35  68  109 149 153 150 154 114

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening, then chance
                    of rain showers in the evening. Slight chance
                    of rain showers overnight.
Temperature.........Min 47.
RH..................Max 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 28 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 28 mph shifting to the west
                    around 17 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (66600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (9100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........78  89  90  91  92  87  82  78  60  42  24  22
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  61  59  56  53  54  54  54  53  52  51  50
RH..............30  32  36  42  50  48  50  52  57  61  66  71
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..16  16  16  16  17  17  16  16  15  14  13  12
20 FT wind gust.23  22  23  25  26  28  28  28  26  23  20  18
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.28  24  25  23  25  25  26  26  25  21  20  17
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100067  28  29  25  28  25  25  23  19  13  12  9

$$
Forecaster...Wood
Requested by...Aaron Wright
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411491.0/MKX
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Aaron.Wright@Wisconsin.gov