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000
FXUS62 KMLB 201355
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
955 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

GOES-16 satellite imagery shows the low stratus that developed
this morning continuing to dissipate with few to scattered low
stratus clouds now across Lake and Volusia counties.
Additionally, the low visibilities due to patchy fog that were
observed this morning in some spots across Lake and Volusia
counties have improved. High pressure over the western Atlantic
continues to influence east central Florida with a mid/upper level
ridge extending across the Gulf of Mexico and the state of
Florida. Offshore west to northwest winds will become east-
southeast into the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze
pushing inland at 5-15mph with gusts up to 20-25mph (mainly along
the coast south of Volusia county). Skies are expected to become
mostly sunny to partly cloudy into the afternoon with afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and the low to
mid 90s to the west of I-95. Some of the guidance suggests that a
few isolated showers are possible this afternoon inland where the
sea breeze collision is expected, however chances remain non-
mentionable with a dry airmass in place (RH values in the low to
mid 30s inland this afternoon).

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 955 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Primarily VFR conditions are forecast. Patchy fog/low stratus
over Lake and Volusia counties this morning will dissipate into
the mid-morning. The chance for IFR CIGs and VIS return Sunday
morning at KLEE and KDAB. W/NW winds are expected to become E/SE
with the east coast sea breeze pushing inland at around 8-12kts
with gusts to 20kts along the coast south of Volusia county.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...Remaining Warm and Dry Through The Weekend...
...Rain Chances Increase Monday with a Few Stronger Storms
Possible...

Today-Tonight...High pressure over the eastern Gulf and western
Atlantic will persist today, continuing a weaker wind flow across
the area. A weak mid level ridge nudges its way into Florida, with
much warmer than normal high temperatures continuing. The
combination of higher temps and initially lighter winds will allow
the sea breeze boundaries along both coasts to form and move inland
this afternoon, with E/SE winds increasing to 10-15+ mph along the
east central Florida coast. This will keep highs in the mid to upper
80s along the coast, with max temps in the low 90s over much of the
interior, near to west of I-95. However, a few inland spots may be
able to make it to the mid 90s this afternoon. While forecast highs
will be near records today, they still remain just below these
values by about 2-6 degrees for most sites (see climate section
below). Greatest potential for a tied/broken max temp record will be
at Vero Beach, where forecast high of 89 degrees is one degree from
their record of 90 degrees for today.

There will be a slight increase in moisture across southern portions
of the area through late afternoon, with PW values increasing to 1.5-
1.6 inches south of Orlando. Some of the hi-res guidance indicates
the potential for a few showers developing, mainly from the sea
breeze collision in this slightly more moist environment near to just
north of Lake Okeechobee. However, MOS PoPs continue a dry forecast,
and will therefore continue to keep any mentionable rain chances out
of the forecast. Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy across
the area. Dry airmass and decreasing winds tonight, will again allow
temps to fall into the mid to upper 60s overnight. Some patchy
ground fog will again be possible late tonight into early Sunday
morning, but confidence not high enough to add to the forecast at
this time.

Sunday...High pressure located across the western Atlantic will
continue to extend towards the peninsula on Sunday, keeping
conditions mostly dry. Another warm day across the area is forecast,
with highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s. This temperature
gradient with the local Atlantic waters will cause the east coast
sea breeze to develop. However, flow aloft will strengthen out of
the west-southwest across the peninsula, which will limit
progression inland of the east coast sea breeze. The sea breeze will
likely stay pinned at the coast, with winds at the surface remaining
out of the west-southwest at 10 to 15 mph. By Sunday night, rain
chances will begin to increase across the far northern portions of
the forecast area as a frontal boundary begins to approach the area.
Isolated to scattered showers will develop out ahead of the
boundary, with development Sunday night remaining north of the
Orlando metro. An isolated storm cannot be ruled out. Overnight lows
across east central Florida will remain in the mid to upper 60s.

Monday...Progression southward of the weak cold front will lead to
increasing rain chances across east central Florida on Monday.
Isolated storms also cannot be ruled out, and the Storm Prediction
Center has now highlighted a majority of the area in a Marginal Risk
(1/5) for severe weather on Monday. The overall environment looks as
though it could support some strong to marginally severe storms.
Increasing moisture ahead of the front will support dewpoints in the
low to mid 60s, and current modeled SBCAPE values hold around 1000
to 1500 J/kg, especially across southern portions of the forecast
area that have the best chances of receiving decent daytime heating.
Increasing cloud coverage across the Orlando metro and areas
northward will keep afternoon temperatures in the mid 70s to low
80s, while areas southward will still climb into the mid to upper
80s. 500 mb temperatures in the -12 to -10C range will support the
potential for hail, and moderate deep layer shear combined with
DCAPE values in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range will support the
potential for gusty winds. Overall, any storms that develop will be
capable of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and small to
coin-sized hail. Modest PWATs (1.4-1.6") could support some brief
heavy downpours.

Showers and storms will gradually diminish as the cold front moves
southward across the area during the overnight hours. Winds will
shift from the west to out of the north-northwest behind the front,
and cloud coverage will diminish. Overnight lows will fall into the
mid to upper 50s north and west of the I-4 corridor, with some rural
areas also falling into the upper 50s. Elsewhere, lows in the low
60s.

Tuesday-Friday...Behind the weak frontal boundary, a dry air mass is
forecast to settle across the southeastern US in association with a
weak area of high pressure. This will keep conditions mostly dry
through the remainder of next week across east central Florida. The
global models have fallen into slightly better agreement with the
latest model run, with both the Euro and the GFS keeping conditions
mostly dry. The GFS continues to try to indicate some sort of
moisture present, but it has decreased since yesterday. As a result,
the NBM has decreased rain chances, with PoPs forecast to remain
below 10 percent through the long term forecast period. The dry air
mass will keep skies mostly clear across east central Florida. Winds
will veer from the north-northeast, becoming onshore through the
remainder of the period. This onshore flow will help keep
temperatures along the coast in the upper 70s to mid 80s through the
period, with areas across the interior west of I-95 gradually
warming through the week. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid
80s on Tuesday, slightly cooler thanks to the passage of the front.
Through the remainder of the week, highs will return to the mid to
upper 80s across the interior. Overnight lows generally in the upper
50s to mid 60s, gradually increasing through the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic
will remain just south of the waters today, with a second area of
weak high pressure over the eastern Gulf. W/SW winds 5-10 knots
this morning, will become E/SE this afternoon as east coast sea
breeze forms and moves inland. Brief period of poor boating
conditions will then be possible, mainly offshore of Brevard
County and the Treasure Coast this evening, as winds veer to the
south and increase to around 15 knots over this portion of the
coastal waters. Otherwise, winds continue to veer to the W/SW
overnight and decrease further overnight. Seas will range from 2-4
feet.

Sunday-Wednesday...High pressure located across the western Atlantic
will keep conditions dry on Sunday, with winds remaining around 10
knots and seas generally 2 to 4 feet. However, the high will get
pushed eastward as an approaching weak cold front moves across the
local waters on Monday, bringing increasing rain and storm chances.
Offshore winds on Sunday will veer to out of the north on Monday
behind the front, increasing to 10 to 20 knots Monday night into
early Tuesday. As a result, boating conditions are forecast to
deteriorate, with seas increasing to 4 to 8 feet Monday night into
Tuesday. Drier air will filter in from the north across the local
waters Tuesday, with dry conditions forecast to persist through
Wednesday. Winds will gradually veer from the north to out of the
east-northeast Tuesday and Wednesday, with wind speeds remaining
between 10 to 15 knots. Seas will subside Tuesday night into
Wednesday, generally falling between 3 to 5 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Today...Dry airmass and warmer than normal temperatures today will
lead to critically low RH values as low as the low to mid 30s over
the interior, west of I-95 this afternoon. However, winds will be
relatively light around 5 to 10 mph across inland areas. Winds may
become breezy along the coast to around 15 mph, as they pick up out
of the E/SE behind the inland moving east coast sea breeze, but this
onshore flow will also keep min RH values in the 40s to low 50s
along coastal areas.

Sunday...Warm and dry conditions will persist across east central
Florida through the remainder of the weekend as an area of high
pressure remains in place across the peninsula. Minimum RH values
will remain in the 30 to 45 percent range across a majority of
east central Florida, with areas along the coast remaining in the
45 to 55 percent range. West-southwest winds will dominate
through the day, increasing to 10 to 15 mph across the area out
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.

Next Week...By Monday, rain and storm chances will increase as the
aforementioned weak cold front moves southward across the area. Any
storms that develop may be capable of producing lightning strikes,
gusty winds, and brief downpours. The increased moisture across the
area will cause minimum RH values to recover into the 45 to 65
percent range. Winds will veer to out of the north on Monday at 10
to 15 mph behind the front. A dry airmass is forecast to settle
across east central Florida through the remainder of next week
behind the weak front, with minimum RH values remaining in the 30 to
45 percent range across the interior west of I-95. Winds will also
become onshore after Tuesday, increasing to 10 to 15 mph each
afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Highs will be above to well above normal this weekend, reaching the
upper 80s to low 90s over much of the area. These values will be
near daily record highs over the next couple days.

Record Highs for April 20-21 and Last Year Set:

            APR 20th  APR 21st
Daytona     95 1968   89 2002
Leesburg    93 2006   93 1968
Sanford     94 2006   93 2006
Orlando     96 1908   96 1935
Melbourne   91 1944   92 1944
Vero Beach  90 1968   91 1970
Ft. Pierce  92 1968   90 2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  64  88  65 /   0   0  10  30
MCO  92  67  91  68 /  10   0  10  20
MLB  88  67  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  89  65  90  65 /  10   0  10  10
LEE  90  66  87  67 /   0   0  10  30
SFB  92  67  90  67 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  92  68  90  68 /  10   0  10  20
FPR  89  65  90  64 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
LONG TERM...Haley
AVIATION...Fehling