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000
FXUS63 KMPX 162346
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
646 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing rain with a chance for a few strong thunderstorms
  along I-90 later this afternoon and evening. Rain continues
  through tomorrow evening.

- A few small chances for showers beyond the short term, with
  southern MN on Thursday and along and east of I-94 on Monday
  into Tuesday next week.

- Temperatures remain in the 50s and 60s for highs, with lows in
  the 30s and 40s with frost/freeze probable on Saturday &
  Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Regional radar imagery shows a broad swath of precipitation ranging
from Nebraska up through Minnesota and down through portions of Iowa
and Missouri. There is a break within the cloud cover and
precipitation over western Iowa, and this area of clearing is the
location to watch for development which could scrape southern
Minnesota later this afternoon and evening. RAP soundings and
analysis shows the potential for a bit of instability to build
within this area of clearing, resulting in little CIN and MUCAPE of
500-1000 J/KG. This couples with a broad area of wind shear
associated with a pair of frontal boundaries stretching across the
area, with a warm front draped over central to north-central Iowa
and a cold front southwest through eastern Nebraska. The warm front
will be the key feature to watch as it would provide the wind shear
needed for a few storms to maintain strength, should they form
within the area of clearing in western Iowa. Right now, the
expectation is for a couple storms to move through the periphery of
the MPX CWA, with most of the stronger storms remaining southeast of
the area along the area more favorable within the warm region south
of the warm front and east of the cold front, giving us a marginal
severe weather threat for the I-90 corridor which includes a small
hail, wind, and tornado chance. Rain showers will continue to churn
across the area north of the warm front which is where most of the
CWA ends up, with a healthy amount of rain already having fallen and
another half to full inch expected before it exits later on
Wednesday. Rumbles of thunder are likely to continue through the
duration of the system even after the severe weather threat ends
later this evening. Aside from the rain, the strong surface pressure
gradient resulting in strong sustained winds will continue through
this evening with winds at 20-30mph primarily out of the east, with
gusts from 40-50mph remaining possible. A few stronger gusts up to
55mph could mix down from any of the stronger showers which develop
due to the momentum enhancement from precipitation, however this
will be on an isolated basis. Winds will begin to shift
northwesterly by tomorrow morning as the surface low slides
eastwards, with speeds briefly weakening overnight before increasing
to 15-20mph gusting to 30-35mph tomorrow.

As the upper level system occludes and begins to weaken as it heads
towards the Great Lakes, the surface low will follow with weakened
frontal boundaries, resulting in a downwards trend in rainfall
intensity with little in the way of storms overnight and through
much of tomorrow, with dry conditions by tomorrow evening. This
system will quickly push eastwards, followed by another shot of
light rain moving northeast across the plains which could give
southern Minnesota and perhaps portions of western Wisconsin another
shot of light rain on Thursday. This second, weaker system will be
followed by synoptic scale ridging aloft which should keep
conditions fairly mild but also a little cooler for the upcoming
weekend, with clear skies allowing temperatures to drop and a chance
for a hard frost/freeze both Saturday and Sunday mornings. This
ridging moves eastwards by Monday, with a hint of another system by
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A large band of showers over WI will continue lifting north
this evening. Other scattered showers and thunderstorms across
southern MN will continue lifting north this evening and will
increase in coverage with time. Gusty winds will ease as the
surface low tracks across the area overnight, then increase from
the northwest behind it Wednesday. Conditions should
deteriorate behind the low with slow improvement as it pulls
away Wednesday.

KMSP...A line of weak thunderstorms oriented with I-35 continues
to approach from the south. These may come close to MSP, but
expecting them to remain mostly to the west as they begin to
curve westward around the low. Will closely monitor. Showers
will increase in coverage again later this evening as the low
tracks overhead. Conditions should deteriorate following the low
to MVFR and possibly IFR, although models have been too
pessimistic with cigs.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind W 15-20G30 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 20G30 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Blue Earth-
     Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-
     McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-
     Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-
     Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-Dunn-
     Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Borghoff