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000
FXUS63 KMPX 220805
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
305 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of showers across eastern/southern MN and western WI
  Monday afternoon/evening and again Tuesday.

- Widespread frost/freeze Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

- The pattern becomes very active with two systems passing
  through at the end of this week and beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

It`s Earth Day! To celebrate, we`ll be discussing the upcoming
weather for parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Current satellite
shows the tendrils of mid/upper level cloudiness associated with the
approaching front, spreading east across Minnesota. Southerly winds
will strengthen out ahead of the fropa, especially over southern
Minnesota where there is 20-35% chance of exceeding gusts greater
than 45 MPH. A Wind Advisory has been issued for this region,
primarily with the concern for strong crosswinds along the I-90
corridor.

The front will pass through dry across western Minnesota, but
building moisture over eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin could
be enough to foster scattered showers in the afternoon. Clouds will
then clear from west to east this evening, allowing for what could
be a pretty sunset!

Another round of showers and some thunderstorms is likely as the
occluded front wraps back around tomorrow. Sounding profiles
highlight mid-level cooling, which will allow lapse rates to become
steeper and saturation easier to achieve. Areas further east will
again be favored for seeing precipitation, with showers
occurring in the morning and some weak thunderstorms forming in
areas that have heated enough at the surface. On the high end,
expect a few reports of pea-sized hail and some thunder for some
parts of Wisconsin.

High pressure moves in Tuesday night, resulting in light winds and
clear skies. Subfreezing temps become likely again into Wednesday
morning, resulting in what would be a fourth night of freeze/frost
headlines.

The long term will continue to be a big talking point this week, as
a pair of upper-level disturbances will look to develop over the
western CONUS and track northeastward into the Upper Midwest within
the late Thursday to Sunday/Monday timeframe. In terms of our
confidence right now: 1) Medium-high that the Thu/Fri system will
have widespread QPF of around an inch, with locally higher amounts
possible. The bulk of precipitation will fall throughout the
day on Friday. 2) Low-medium that the Thu/Fri system will create
an environment favorable for severe thunderstorms. This will be
dependent on the track of the low, with current trends favoring
areas to our south. 3) Low that conditions will become more
suitable for severe weather for the Sun/Mon system as deeper
moisture is pulled from the Gulf. 4) High that the
excitement/awareness is palpable here at the office, with our
severe weather season starting to ramp up this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions continue with light, southwesterly winds through
the AM. Cloud cover will increase from west to east in
association with the approaching cold front. Winds will also
strengthen out ahead of the front, with gusts up to 30kts at
times. Light showers could form for locations further east,
especially over western Wisconsin. These will be fast-moving
rain showers that are primarily MVFR/VFR. Clouds will clear out
from west to east in the late afternoon, providing a break from
the rain until wrap around showers move through on Tuesday.

KMSP...Most likely timing of rain shower development would be
around 20-21z, with showers only lasting a few hours at most.
Wind gusts will increase through the afternoon, before tapering
off again this evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...Chance MVFR/-SHRA, then VFR late. Wind NW 15-20G30-35kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Chance MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for Blue Earth-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Steele-Waseca-
     Watonwan.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BED