241
FXUS63 KMPX 271950
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
250 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cool & rainy day is on tap for Sunday.

- Another round of showers & thunderstorms likely on Tuesday, with a
  few stronger storms possible across S MN.

- Rest of next week looks dry with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Satellite imagery highlights a potent mid-level trough over the
western CONUS with a more vigorous shortwave evident over the Four
Corners region. Our sfc low is moving over Lake Superior leaving the
Upper Mississippi valley in the wake with northwest or westerly
winds and seasonable temperatures. Speaking of temperatures, Looking
back toward the southern Plains, another developing sfc low is
ejecting out of the Four Corners and will trek into the Plains later
today. Current obs reveal temperatures in the mid to upper 50s with
10-15mph W/NW winds. Dry conditions last into the overnight period
ahead of the next system that`ll bring another round of rain & wind
on Sunday.

For Sunday, We`ve seen things continue to slow down vs previous
guidance runs. PoPs really ramp up after 12z Sunday morning so
tonight should remain dry for most of us. Our sfc low looks to
remain to our south on Sunday and this will keep us on the cooler
side. High temperatures will be rather brisk, struggling to hit 50
outside of the I-90 corridor, with a steady rain expected as well.
As for the severe risk, SPC day 2 places I-90 and S MN into the
Marginal risk category but guidance doesn`t seem all to excited with
storms in S MN. The better environment stays off to our south and
east in Iowa & Wisconsin as the warm front really doesn`t clear our
counties. An isolated storm or two will be possible in S MN,
particularly late afternoon into Sunday evening, with a non-zero
chance of becoming strong or severe.

Looking at the week ahead, we`ll dry out and remain cooler to start
the week with high temps in the low to mid 50s on Monday. The
cooldown doesn`t last long as a warm front moves through Monday
night into Tuesday, with temperatures forecast into the low to mid
70s Tuesday afternoon. Along with the warmer temperatures comes
another, arguably better set up for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.
Guidance tracks a healthy shortwave through the Dakotas on Tuesday.
NBM ramps up the PoPs Tuesday afternoon. This system tracks the cold
front through southern & central MN Tuesday afternoon & evening.
This lines up nicely with diurnal heating maxima and should mean
we`re dealing with convection vs stratiform rain. There will be a
severe risk with a low CAPE/higher shear set up looking to play out.
Forecast soundings highlight a few 100 J/Kg of sb instability and
35+ kts of effective shear & curved hodographs. Our limiting factor
will be the lack of sufficient lapse rates and that should keep the
severe threat to an isolated strong storm or two vs many. Still,
this looks to be an environment that could support a few marginally
severe storms.

Afterward Tuesday, we`ll return to cooler seasonable temperatures
(50s/60s) and a break from precipitation until next weekend. So why
does the forecast have a slight chance for showers Thursday and
Friday if guidance is mostly dry? The NBM`s make up contains a lot
of ensemble members that likely feature timing differences or
features that likely won`t impact us. This time of year going
forward 30 to 40 PoPs are pretty standard despite no driving system
in the deterministic models. So, the NBM is actually favoring
drier conditions which DOES line up with the bulk of the
ensemble guidance. In reality, seasonable temperatures and a
stretch of dry weather will wrap up the week before next
weekend. Guidance is beginning to hint at another low pressure
tracking into the Upper Midwest that would give us yet another
damp/cool weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MVFR cigs likely to continue through much of the period. West
winds will become north later today/this evening, then east
northeast Sunday. Rain will return from south to north Sunday
morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind WSW 15-20G30 kts.
TUE...VFR in the morning, MVFR/-TSRA likely in the
afternoon/evening. Wind SW bcmg NW 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind light/variable.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...Borghoff