Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 221759
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1259 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence is increasing quickly for a significant winter storm
  late Saturday night into Monday night or Tuesday.

- Snowfall totals over a foot appear likely across a large
  portion of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. East winds of 30
  to 35 mph will lead to blowing snow.

- The snow will be wet and heavy near the rain/snow line, making
  it difficult to move.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Lingering light snow this morning has moved fully east of the
area into southern Wisconsin, with clearing skies expected this
afternoon. Quiet weather conditions are expected through at
least late Saturday night, when an impactful winter storm will
begin to impact the region. Widespread heavy snow, gusty winds,
and major impacts to travel are still anticipated Sunday into
Monday morning. Heavy snow will likely continue across western &
north-central Minnesota through Monday, while much of the area
could see a changeover to rain and/or a dry slot leading to a
break in the winter storm Monday afternoon and evening. Light
snow will likely linger over the region Tuesday with the system
exiting the region by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Snow continuous to fall early this
morning across portions of Central and southeastern MN and
western WI. So far snow observations coming in through our
social media outlets have ranged anywhere between a couple of
inches to around six inches with potentially some localized
higher amounts. SPC Mesoanalysis currently depicting the h850
frontogenesis eroding over Southern MN while the forcing at h700
levels shoves off, thus allowing for snowfall to decrease from
west to east this morning. Although the snowfall rates are
slowing down, this morning`s commute could be potentially
slippery as indicated on MnDOT 511 current road conditions.
Sunshine will break its way through the clouds later on this
afternoon as this our current system departs allowing for highs
to reach the low to mid 30s. For the daylight hours on Saturday,
the weather will remain quiet as our next and more potent
system encroaches from the west. Skies will start out mostly
sunny but transition to mostly cloudy by sunset. Forecasted high
temperatures will range in the upper 20s to low 30s.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Saturday night through
Tuesday is where the forecast becomes tricky. A Colorado Low
develops on the lee side of the Rockies and gets carried NE`ward
by a shortwave over the southern CONUS. Forecast guidance
showing confidence that a large region of h850 warm air over IA
will advect northward given southerly flow. Forcing for this
system will cover a much broader scale as compared to our now
previous snow banding system. As the core of this Colorado Low
makes its way across IA, initial forcing will take shape as
isentropic ascent at but then will transition to deformation
banding by Tuesday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, any
shift in this low`s track will greatly change p-type
distribution. As of now, much of southern MN could see a
rain/snow mix for a few hours on Sunday before changing back to
all snow Sunday night. Blowing snow is also possible especially
on Sunday into Monday where wind gusts could exceed 30 mph.
Temperatures will warm across eastern MN and western WI with
highs in the mid 30s on Sunday then upper 30s to mid 40s by
Monday. With all of this in play and through collaboration with
the WPC, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for much of
central and southern MN as well as western WI from Sunday
morning to Tuesday morning. Snow totals once this event is all
said and done are likely to exceed 12 inches, especially across
western MN. Given the aforementioned mixed p-types which are
expected, snow compaction could lead to slightly lesser amounts
than anticipated.

The rest of the forecast period features another short lull prior to
our next system to watch arrives just in time for next weekend.
Temperatures will continue to gradually rise with highs in the 40s
and lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Scattered clouds around 2-3k ft will stick around for a few
hours across portions of south-central Minnesota and western
Wisconsin. Scattered cumulus will continue to build in from the
north around 4-5k ft that will clear out this evening, leading
to relatively clear skies through tomorrow afternoon. Winds will
be out of the N/NW around 5-10 mph, shifting more easterly and
becoming light tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Chances for snow start to increase tomorrow night, so we
have kept mention out of the TAF for now. No additional
concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...IFR/LIFR +SN likely. Wind E 25G30-40kts
MON...IFR Likely. Chance LIFR/+SN early. RA/SN mix likely
afternoon-evening. Wind ENE 15G25-30kts.
TUE...IFR/MVFR likely. Chance RA/SN mix thru afternoon. Wind NW
15G25-30kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning
     for Benton-Chippewa-Douglas-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui
     Parle-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Redwood-Renville-
     Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning
     for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Hennepin-
     Isanti-Le Sueur-McLeod-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-
     Sherburne-Sibley-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright.
WI...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning
     for Barron-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ETA
DISCUSSION...Borghoff/Dunleavy
AVIATION...BED


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