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000
FXUS63 KMQT 190943
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
543 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

THE SFC HIGH THAT WAS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...WILL PUSH FROM
THE EASTERN CWA AND N LOWER MI THIS MORNING TO CENTRAL LAKE HURON
AND FAR S ONTARIO BY 00Z. EXPECT GOOD MIXING TODAY...TO AROUND 800MB
WILL HELP DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE EASTERN
FIRE ZONES. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...WINDS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG
AS WAS EXPECTED JUST 24 HRS AGO...WITH GUSTS STAYING AROUND 18KTS OR
LESS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EAST /WITH A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT/ AND OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
AREAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY. WITH
THE LACK OF A LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE TODAY...MID AND EVEN UPPER
70S LOOK REASONABLE NEAR MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ISQ WILL BE THE COOL
SPOT...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S /AFTER THE COOL MORNING IN THE 30S
UNDER A CLEAR SKY WITH LIGHT WINDS/.

LOOK FOR INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE FAR W...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEATING
AND A NEARING SFC TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NE ONTARIO SHOULD HELP POP
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS N MN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ASSISTED BY A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
STORM MOTION TO PUSH THEM ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND TO WESTERN UPPER
MI MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS ARE ANTICIPATED. FOG SHOULD
QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH THE WARM HUMID AIR MOVING IN...LOWS IN THE 50S SHOULD BE
COMMON...WITH A FEW MID TO UPPER 40S FAR E.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD AS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
BE SLIDING JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HELPING TO FORCE A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY AND WILL COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES
TO INITIATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRENGTH OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND
THETA-E ADVECTION IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ML CAPE VALUES OF 700-1200 J/KG OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS LATE
IN THE DAY WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME TILTING OF THE
UPDRAFTS. HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AS
NCAPE VALUES AROUND .1 SHOULD KEEP ANY HAIL FROM GROWING TOO LARGE
AND DCAPE VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST/CENTRAL...CLOSEST TO LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE.

MODELS ADVERTISE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
FROM THIS LOW...A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME DRAPED OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY IDEAL
SETUP FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA...BUT TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE STORMS WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PULLS PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOW ML CAPE VALUES RISING TO
500-1200 J/KG RANGE OVER THE WEST ON FRI AND THEN GROW TO 1000-2500
J/KG FOR SAT/SUN DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. THE GFS STILL
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH FARTHEST NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT ON
FRI BRINGING IT NORTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF AND
EVEN THE NAM TRY TO KEEP THE FRONT A TOUCH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WHERE
THIS FRONT SETS UP WILL BE CRITICAL FOR DETERMINING TRACK OF STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND THE MID-LVL RDG/VIA FORWARD PROP CORFIDI VECTORS AND ALONG
850-300 MB THICKNESS LINES/ TO BE MAIN STORM THREAT...BUT WITH THE
INSTABILITY PRESENT AND LIMITED INHIBITION...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY FCST CONCERNS WOULD BE IF THE RIDGE
AND WARM FRONT BUILD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO PUSH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN...OR THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF STORMS
HANGING UP JUST TO THE SOUTH IF WARM FRONT STAYS TO SOUTH PER
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET AND NAM SOLNS. STILL CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT
PERIODIC STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND TO
INCLUDE IN BOTH THE HWO AND EHWO. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...AS PWAT VALUES RISE
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 140-150 PCT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

EXPECT INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FCST
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE
WARMEST VALUES NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...WOULD HAVE TO BUMP TEMPS UP WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.

MODELS STILL SHOW SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FOR
MON INTO TUE TIME FRAME AS MID-LVL RDG SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN. WILL
CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA DURING THIS PD.

WITH RISING DEW POINTS ON THE WAY WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FOG ON GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXPANDED TO AREAS OR EVEN DENSE FOG AS MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN NEARS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY
LOW WAVES. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS/HAIL/LIGHTNING WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG THAT
DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD...AS A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO SWINGS INTO QUEBEC. A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH SHOULD STRENGTHEN
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS
ONTARIO...AND AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL FURTHER DEEPEN OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF