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000
FXUS63 KMQT 112311
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
711 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WITH A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER HAD DROPPED TO NEAR CYQT AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SUPPORTED THE MORNING PCPN BAND SHIFTED INTO ERN UPPER
MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. RADARS INDICATED THAT SCT -SHSN SUPPORTED BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
WERE SPREADING FROM NE MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPPER MI.
UPSTREAM...THE 12Z CYPL SOUNDING INDICATED PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TO
INVERSION AROUND 12K FT(650)MB.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE WEST. HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST SHSN WILL
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE WEST FROM 00Z-03Z AND
INTO THE ERN CWA MAINLY AFT 03Z. WITH VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW DEVELOPING...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

WITH CAA INCREASING AND WINDS VEERING AS A SECONDARY SHRTWV MOVES
THROUGH...TEMPS AT 850 MB FALL TO AROUND -8C  WITH INVERSION TOP
TEMPS TO NEAR -18C...PER NAM. ALTHOUGH LAKE INDUCED CAPES ARE
RELATIVELY MODEST...MOISTURE THROUGH 650 MB AND SHARP CYCLONIC
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BOOST CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW FOR AT A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW DOWNWIND OF LONGER FETCH OVER CNTRL AND
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE
HURON MOUNTAINS TO NEGAUNEE AND FROM ALGER COUNTY THROUGH NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT AND NRN LUCE COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFT 03Z AS
A PRES RISE MOVES THROUGH AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE SFC LOW
DEEPENING E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MIXED LAYER WINDS TO 40-45 KNOTS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE FROM MARQUETTE EASTWARD. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SNOW.

SUN...WITH LINGERING DEEP CYCLONIC NNW FLOW AND AROUND -10C 8H
TEMPS MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THERMAL TROUGH...EXPECT SOME
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE EAST WHERE
LONGER FETCH WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT EFFECT PCPN.
OTHERWISE...SHARP SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE NEUTRAL
OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING AND END
TO ANY LINGERING BY MID AFTERNOON. FAIRLY TIGHT NW PRES GRAD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 35 MPH OVER
THE ERN HALF COUNTIES ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH AND EAST TO MID 40S SOUTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

RELATIVELY COLD HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUN...SO GOING INTO SUN
NIGHT WITH SFC RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED CLEARING BUILDING IN FROM THE
W...SHOULD SEE SFC TEMPS FALL SHARPLY /ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
CWA/...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS ALOFT WARM SUN NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS SUN NIGHT
AROUND 20F /EVEN IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS IN COLDER SPOTS/ OVER
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR W UPPER MI...WITH LOWS AROUND OF BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN COLDER SPOTS GIVEN
GUIDANCE COMING IN WITH COLDER TEMPS...BUT DID NOT GO AS LOW AS
COLDEST GUIDANCE.

SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND 00Z TUE INCREASE BY 5C
OVER THE ERN CWA AND 12C OVER THE WRN CWA. THEREFORE...WILL SEE
WARMER TEMPS FOR MON THAN SUN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN CWA. HIGH
TEMPS FOR MON ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 60 OVER THE INTERIOR WRN CWA
AND AROUND 50 OVER THE FAR ERN CWA. COULD SEE SOME WAA PRECIP MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE AND FORCING DO
NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END MON INTO
MON NIGHT.

MODELS HINT AT PRECIP FOR TUE ALONG A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW THAT MOVE INTO SRN MANITOBA BY 00Z WED.
AGAIN...MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LIMITED SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRECIP GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND DECENT LAPSE RATES. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 13C
OVER THE WRN CWA TO 16C BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND 00Z WED...AND INCREASE
ANOTHER 10C TO 9C OVER THE FAR ERN CWA. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGHS
AROUND 70 OVER THE INTERIOR WRN CWA AND AROUND 60 OVER THE ERN CWA.

THE SFC LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVE N OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. THIS BRINGS
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY AT LEAST 18Z WED /SLOWER GFS
TIMING/...WHICH WILL TURN WINDS OUT OF THE WNW AND COOL TEMPS A BIT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE LIMITED ALONG THE SRN CWA...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER
THERE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN/ERN CWA WHERE MOISTURE
AND FORCING WILL BE BETTER. EVEN WITH COOLER OVERHEAD
AIRMASS...AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WED MORNING...SKIES WILL CLEAR
OUT...ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO WARM UP HIGHER THAN THE CLOUDIER TUE
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 70S OVER THE
SCENTRAL CWA WED...AND AROUND 70S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR CWA.

THU THROUGH NEXT SAT...CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED BY LACK OF MODEL
AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY. WILL JUST RUN WITH WHATEVER
CONSENSUS OF MODELS COMES UP WITH FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

VFR CIGS AT IWD AND SAW WILL COME DOWN TO MVFR TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL
COOLING. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT CMX AND
WILL MOVE INTO SAW TONIGHT WITH IFR VISIBILITY IN THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. DRY AIR COMES IN LATE SUN MORNING AND IWD AND CMX WILL GO
BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS. IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO GET THE DRY AIR
INTO SAW AND THE MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY SUN AFTERNOON. WILL
BE GUSTY THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

EXPECT A STRONG GALE TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE LAKE BY LATE THIS
EVENING AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST SUN MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR FOR WINDS
40-45 KTS. RIDGING MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SUN NIGHT AND
MON...LEADING TO RELATIVELY CALM WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE S MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED...BRINGING A SOUTHWEST SHIFT
TO THE WINDS WED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ251-
     267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ243>245-264-265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ248.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB