Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FNUS73 KOAX 130925
FWSOAX

Spot Forecast for Mills Rx...Northern Praries Land Trust
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
425 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Expect occasional south wind gusts of up to 22 mph between 9 and
11 AM, but for the most part winds will be lighter with gusts in
the 10-15 mph range, turning out of the southwest by afternoon.
Mixing depth may become very deep after 4 PM, possibly greater
than 10,000 feet, and if this occurs, could see a few more hours
of wind gusts up to 22 mph, mainly after 4 PM. This scenario
would also lead to lower RH, perhaps as low as 17 percent. Expect
a wind shift out of the northwest between 10 PM and 1 AM, turning
out of the northeast on Sunday morning.

Strongest Possible Wind Speeds on Day of Burn: 23 mph

Lowest Possible Relative Humidity on Day of Burn: 17 percent

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph late
                    in the morning.
Surface winds (mph).South winds 10 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph
                    late in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph
                    late in the morning.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (64600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................7.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........13  17  7   12  7   10  30  35  46  52
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............50  55  61  67  73  78  82  85  86  86
RH..............56  53  49  45  40  35  29  26  23  21
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   10  10  9   8   8   8   9   10  9
20 FT wind gust.14  17  18  16  13  13  13  14  14  13
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.6   8   8   7   6   6   6   7   8   7
Eye lvl wnd gst.11  13  13  12  10  10  10  10  10  10
Surface wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Surface wnd spd.10  13  13  11  10  10  10  11  13  11
Surface wnd gst.18  21  22  20  16  16  16  17  17  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.0 3.0 3.8 4.6 4.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.16  16  18  16  16  15  16  17  17  17
GFDI............3   4   6   5   5   6   7   9   10  10
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
SDspl kt-ft/100012  16  20  21  22  26  42  58  65  49

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........69 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds up to 6 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 4 mph late in the evening,
                    then shifting to the north early in the
                    morning.
Surface winds (mph).Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 6 mph late in the evening,
                    then shifting to the north early in the
                    morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 5 mph late in the evening,
                    then shifting to the north early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 10 to 12 mph late in the evening,
                    then becoming 10 to 13 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (25300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
GFDI................5.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........46     47     28     12     3      3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............85     76     68     64     59     56
RH..............21     30     36     41     49     53
20 ft wind......S 8    S 5    SW 5   NW 5   NW 5   NW 5
20 ft wind gust.12     8      7      10     8      8
Eye level wind..S 6    S 4    SW 4   NW 4   NW 4   NW 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.9      6      5      7      6      6
Surface wind....S 10   S 6    SW 6   NW 6   NW 6   NW 6
Surface wnd gst.15     10     9      12     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....3900   500    400    400    400    400
Transport wind..S 15   S 10   SW 12  NW 12  NW 12  N 12
GFDI............8      3      2      2      2      2
Haines index....6      6      6      6      6      6
SDspl kt-ft/100025     0      4      4      4      4

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds around 4 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming east around 4 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Surface winds (mph).North winds around 6 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming east 6 to 8 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon shifting to
                    the around 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming northeast 5 to 7
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon shifting
                    to the east around 7 mph.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 15 mph decreasing to around 6
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (38200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................3.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........3      3      2      3      3      2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............53     54     64     73     78     81
RH..............59     69     54     38     30     26
20 ft wind......N 5    N 4    NE 5   NE 6   E 6    E 6
20 ft wind gust.7      8      10     10     10     10
Eye level wind..N 4    N 3    NE 4   NE 4   E 4    E 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.5      6      7      8      8      8
Surface wind....N 6    N 5    NE 6   NE 8   E 8    E 8
Surface wnd gst.9      10     12     13     13     13
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    1200   3000   4200   4800
Transport wind..N 13   N 13   NE 15  NE 13  N 10   NE 7
GFDI............1      1      2      3      5      5
Haines index....6      5      5      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/10003      6      15     32     38     29

$$
Forecaster...Barjenbruch
Requested by...Leslie Brownrigg
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410433.1/OAX
.DELDT 04/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL leslie.brownrigg@nebraska.gov
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