Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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531 FXUS64 KOHX 020729 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 229 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 It`s a quiet night across Middle Tennessee with a few high clouds passing through. It will be a warm day across the area as southerly low level flow continues. Clouds will begin to thicken this evening ahead of a dampening shortwave ejecting out of the Arklatex region. A few showers will be possible prior to midnight west of I-65 but the better rain chances will be closer to dawn and into Friday morning. There may be a brief reprieve late Friday morning but another wave will be riding the heels of the first. More showers and storms will be around Friday afternoon and persist into Saturday. MUCAPE values Friday afternoon will be around 1500 J/kg but effective bulk shear will be low at 10-15 kts so no organized severe threat is anticipated. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Showers and storms will continue Friday night and even into Saturday morning. Behind the shortwave the upper flow continues to be quasi-zonal with more weak disturbances. More scattered showers and storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Sunday morning may be dry but yet another wave will approach the area Sunday afternoon/evening with more scattered showers and storms. The quasi-zonal flow will continue next week with more waves of showers and storms. MUCAPE values each afternoon will be in the 1000-1500 J/kg range but effective bulk shear will stay on the low side generally between 10-20 kts so no organized severe threats are anticipated. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 CKV/BNA/MQY will be VFR for the taf period. Fog cannot be ruled out at SRB/CSV through dawn but confidence is not high. Showers could impact CKV after 03/00z so VCSH was included in the taf. Southerly winds will increase to around 10 kts by late morning and decrease below 5 kts after 03/00z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 66 79 65 / 0 60 80 70 Clarksville 87 65 76 63 / 0 60 80 50 Crossville 83 62 76 61 / 0 30 70 70 Columbia 87 65 79 63 / 0 70 80 70 Cookeville 84 64 76 62 / 0 40 70 80 Jamestown 85 62 77 61 / 0 20 70 80 Lawrenceburg 85 65 78 63 / 0 60 80 70 Murfreesboro 88 65 79 63 / 0 60 70 70 Waverly 88 64 76 62 / 0 70 80 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Reagan