465
FXUS64 KOHX 300028
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
728 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Showers with isolated thunderstorms had spread into our far
western counties this evening. These showers and a few embedded
rumbles of thunder will spread across the entire Mid State through
the night with soaking rainfall, mostly light to moderate
intensity, but a few brief heavy downpours possible. Total rainfall
amounts near 1 inch will be common, but some areas could have more
than 1.5". Amounts will trend downward for the Plateau with
mostly less than 1 inch. No severe wx is expected overnight. Most
of Tuesday`s rainfall will occur east of I-65 and mainly in the
morning.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Pretty nice day out there. Plenty of sun, temps in the 70s, creeping
towards 80 for many. However, it will all go downhill from here.
Clouds will be on the increase this afternoon ahead of next weather
maker due into Middle TN this evening. Models have been very
consistent regarding this system. As storms move into the area,
we`ll be losing the heating of the day (sub-1000 J/Kg CAPE), lapse
rates get worse and shear drops off. This continues to spell general
thunderstorms with this system. Is there the potential for a gust to
40 mph with any storm? Sure, but no severe weather is expected.
Rainfall still looks healthy between tonight and tomorrow. I think 1
to 2 inches is still possible with a few pockets getting a touch
more with the heavier convection. Some localized flooding issues
will be possible, but nothing to write home about. Rain chances fall
off pretty dramatically by noon tomorrow, with everybody becoming
rain-free before sunset tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

High pressure builds into the region pretty quickly on Wednesday and
this will set the stage for some of our warmest temperatures of the
year so far. Thursday still looks like the warmest and latest NBM
probs show the chance of getting to 90 degrees at about 70% for BNA.
With dew points in the upper 50s, it won`t quite feel like summer,
but close. Remember, if we get to 90 at BNA on Thursday, it`ll be
the first time since 1901.

It still looks like Thursday night for the arrival of our next
weather system. Models have been fairly consistent with this, as
well. This should lead to periods of showers and storms throughout
the day Friday and Friday night with activity getting out of here
Saturday morning. Forecast soundings still look pretty benign, so no
severe weather is expected at this time. Even if we do see a break
Saturday afternoon and Sunday, there looks like a good chance of
more rain moving in Sunday night or Monday. With this many chances
for rain, it matches up well the above-normal precip forecast
from CPC through the next 10 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SHRA/VCTS will move across airports this TAF period with MVFR/IFR
cigs/vis anticipated. Rain will move away from airports Tuesday
morning with a return to VFR conditions by late morning/afternoon.
Light south to southwest winds tonight will veer to west/northwest
on Tuesday with a weak fropa.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  79  57  85 / 100  50   0   0
Clarksville    61  79  55  85 / 100  30   0   0
Crossville     59  69  53  78 / 100  90  20   0
Columbia       62  79  55  84 / 100  40   0   0
Cookeville     61  70  55  79 / 100  80  10   0
Jamestown      59  69  53  79 / 100  90  20   0
Lawrenceburg   62  76  55  83 / 100  50   0   0
Murfreesboro   62  77  53  83 / 100  60   0   0
Waverly        61  79  55  85 / 100  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Shamburger