238
FXUS64 KOUN 111331
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
831 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Most models are underestimating impacts of subtle shortwave
trough moving slowly from southwest Texas this morning. As a
result, we have increased the chances for rain across western
Oklahoma and western north Texas. While the current showers and
scattered (very high based) storms will weaken the farther east
the progress, scattered areas of rain are likely between now and
noon. Should be a lull this afternoon and then another round
expected tonight through Sunday.

With the scattered and highly elevated nature of the incoming
clouds/rain activity, there may not be a significant impact on
temperatures, especially if we get peaks of sun this afternoon.
For now, we will keep most highs in the 70s, with low 80s central
and eastern Oklahoma counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Increasing clouds should spread northeastward across the FA today
as the closed upper low pressure system approaches from the west.
Arrival of precipitation has trended a bit later with the slow
forward progression of the upper trough. Mostly rain showers
should begin to overspread western north Texas by late afternoon
as the upper low reaches the four corners region. Instability
should be very low, but cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm
this afternoon.

High temperatures should rise into the upper 70`s and low 80`s
today and winds shift to the south as surface high pressure exits
our area. Moisture return then begins tonight with dewpoint
temperatures beginning to rise. This will keep overnight low
temperatures in the mid to upper 50`s. While there is a chance of
rain tonight, high POPs don`t move into our area until Sunday
morning.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

As the closed upper low exits the Rockies and approaches western
Kansas on Sunday, showers become more numerous and continue
throughout the day as WAA strengthens and isentropic lift deepens.
This will lead to cooler temperatures, with highs in the 60`s and
70`s. The severe thunderstorm potential across our western
counties appears to be diminishing on Sunday as latest model runs
shift the instability axis more into the Texas panhandle.

The closed upper low then slowly tracks across the Kansas and
rain chances linger over much of Oklahoma on Monday with a
marginal risk of severe storms over southeastern Oklahoma as a
warm front approaches this area. A short respite is expected on
Tuesday as the upper trough departs. Then, shower and
thunderstorms appear likely on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
night as a southern stream trough approaches. Due to timing
differences among models, rain chances (though lower) continue
into Thursday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Cloud cover will steadily advance eastward throughout the day
today, with sky cover progressing from clear to scattered to
broken at most sites. Ceilings should remain VFR throughout the
day and much of the night, but western Oklahoma and western north
Texas might make a foray into MVFR conditions late in the night.
Rain chances will also exist for western Oklahoma and western
north Texas, especially after 0Z. Winds will remain on the whole
light and not particularly impactful.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80  59  71  60 /  10  30  70  90
Hobart OK         80  56  69  58 /  20  50  80  80
Wichita Falls TX  78  59  70  61 /  30  40  80  60
Gage OK           80  54  68  53 /  30  70  90  80
Ponca City OK     82  59  73  59 /   0  20  60  90
Durant OK         81  61  71  63 /  10  20  60  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...04