186
FXUS63 KPAH 200449
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1149 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and very warm conditions are expected through Tuesday.

- Chances of thunderstorms return to the forecast Tuesday night
  and continue through next Sunday. Wednesday afternoon through
  Wednesday night will have the best chances of thunderstorms
  and some potential for severe weather. A heavy rainfall and
  flooding threat could eventually develop.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The Key Messages have not changed, and neither has the forecast.

A ridge of high pressure aloft will remain in place across the
region through at least Tuesday. The ECENS and GEFS are still
indicating 700mb temperatures at a 5-10 year return interval
Tuesday, so that should keep a lid on any attempted convection
reaching the area. Temperatures overachieved yesterday and now
we have dewpoints mixing down into the upper 50s this afternoon.
Actually had to mix in some of the ARW to get dewpoints that
low. The mixing depth should decrease just a bit each day
through Tuesday, which will lead to slightly higher temperatures
and dewpoints each day. KPAH may hit 90 today, and most of the
region will likely reach the lower 90s by Tuesday. At least the
humidity, although increasing, will not be that much of a factor.

The forecast is dry through Tuesday, but some convection may
approach our far northwest counties late Monday afternoon into
the evening. Currently, the NSSL WRF is the only CAM that
really brings something into the Quad State. It definitely
bears watching, as there is a chance of either an MCV or outflow
boundary, leftover from a strong MCS that is expected to rip
through Kansas this evening, sustaining convection or helping to
regenerate convection across Missouri Monday afternoon. This
certainly seems plausible, so don`t be surprised if some PoPs
show back up in the forecast for late Monday and Monday evening.
If storms ultimately do reach the area, they will encounter
poor instability and shear and should dissipate quickly.

South winds will pick up and become gusty Tuesday through
Wednesday. A Lake Wind Advisory may be needed both days. The
increased southerly flow will lead to increasing dewpoints and a
very mild Tuesday night. Lows will likely remain at or above 70
degrees.

The 12Z guidance continues to trend weaker and later with the
initial attempt to bring convection into the area mid-week.
There is a chance that we will see little or no convection
before Wednesday afternoon. The best chances of convection will
be ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and night. The front
will not be that strong, so it may not have enough of a push to
make it south of the area.

The flow aloft will be stronger Wednesday and the resultant
shear may be sufficient to support a few severe storms.
Dewpoints holding in the middle and upper 60s will definitely
lead to better instability, especially if we do not have much
convective debris over the region to hamper heating. The bottom
line is that some severe storms will be possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Given the many uncertainties in this
forecast, it is too early to speculate on the storm mode and
specific severe threats.

With the front tending to lay down across the Quad State or
just to the south, training storms are becoming more likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night. This would lead to a heavy
rainfall and flooding threat. The latest guidance continues to
bring disturbances eastward over the region Thursday through
next weekend. The associated convection will keep the heavy
rainfall and flooding threat in play through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for all sites. Light winds tonight
will increase to between 5-10 knots on Monday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...AD