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000
FNUS71 KRNK 151743
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Brush Mountain Unit 3...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
143 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 EDT on April 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

...Severe thunderstorm watch until 10PM...
Please use caution and be alert for approaching storms.

Deep mixing is expected today with winds gusting from the
west-southwest up to 20 mph. Min RH around 35 percent.

As a front slowly approaches, expecting scattered
strong thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening,
mainly from 5-10PM. Storms will be capable of strong winds and hail.
Locations that get rain this afternoon and evening will have
a few hours of patchy fog overnight.

The front will stall across the area through Tuesday and RH will
continue to increase with another chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Winds turn to the northeast. Winds will turn the southeast then east
Tuesday morning.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......20 percent increasing to 30 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......6400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West around 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (86200 knot-ft).
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................112 to 123.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........29  28  35
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC
CWR.............20  20  30
Temp............79  79  79
RH..............42  41  42
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.13  13  12
Mix hgt (kft)...5.9 6.3 6.4
Mixng wind dir..W   W   W
Mixng wind spd..17  17  17
LVORI...........1   1   1
ADI.............112 123 122
Haines index....4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1K.100 112 111

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........becoming mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then patchy fog overnight.
CWR (0.01 in).......30 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 6 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest 1 to
                    5 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (60000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................80 early in the evening decreasing to 1 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........30     30     54     61     34     58
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............30     20     20     20     10     10
Temp............76     70     66     62     59     58
RH..............46     58     65     75     82     85
20 ft wind......W 7    W 6    W 5    NW 6   W 4    NW 3
20 ft wind gust.11     10     7      8      6      5
Mix hgt (ft)....4700   600    500    700    500    400
Mixing wind.....W 15   W 8    W 7    W 7    W 6    NW 2
LVORI...........1      3      3      4      5      5
ADI.............80     4      5      5      3      1
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate mph-ft/1K.69     5      4      5      3      1

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph
                    late in the morning, then shifting to the south
                    5 to 6 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northeast 1 to 2 mph shifting to the south 6 to
                    9 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (20300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................1 to 30.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........70     65     57     57     70     72
Weather cov.....                     S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  CHANCE
CWR.............10     10     10     20     20     40
Temp............57     59     65     69     73     75
RH..............87     84     77     68     62     59
20 ft wind......NW 2   E 3    SE 3   SE 5   S 5    SE 6
20 ft wind gust.       5      5      7      8      10
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    1500   2800   4000   2500
Mixing wind.....N 1    E 3    E 7    SE 7   S 6    S 9
LVORI...........6      5      4      3      2      2
ADI.............1      4      14     23     30     27
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate mph-ft/1K.1      2      10     21     23     22

$$
Forecaster...Silverman
Requested by...William Brimm
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410648.4/RNK
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL william.brimm@usda.gov