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000
FXUS63 KSGF 190648
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
148 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures Friday through Sunday. Patchy frost
  potential Sunday morning and especially Monday morning.

- A return to near normal temperatures next week.

- 30-50% rain chances Monday Night into Tuesday and again
  Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continued to show a large upper low across southern
Canada. This was contributing to zonal flow across the central
US. A cold front has pushed through the area and has dropped
into central Arkansas. The 850mb front has also passed the
area, ending any precip chances. Low level cold air advection
continues with temps around 50 and dewpoints in the 40s.
Satellite shows the back edge of the low level stratus across
southeast Kansas and western Missouri however additional high
clouds were begnning to move in from the west.

Today: The low level stratus will continue to move southeast
this morning, with mostly clear skies expected at times. HREF
guidance shows high clouds continuing at times. Much cooler
850mb temps are advecting into the area (3-6C) therefore even
with sunshine temps will likely remain below normal today with
highs in the lower to middle 60s. Winds will gradually decrease
out of the north through the day.

Tonight: A surface high pressure axis will begin sliding into
the area with mostly clear skies expected. Given the dry air in
place, low temps will likely drop into the lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Saturday and Sunday: Shortwave energy looks to slide through
Arizona and New Mexico on Saturday. The low level airmass looks
to remain dry with northerly surface winds, therefore as this
system slides further east into Texas, clouds will spread into
the area through the day. These clouds look to remain mid/high
level in nature however they could be thick enough to keep high
temps in the upper 50s to around 60 in most places. Rain
chances continue to look very low (less than 20%) and confined
to areas along the Missouri/Arkansas border Saturday
afternoon/evening. Ensembles are keeping most of the rain south
of the area therefore confidence is increasing that most places
will remain dry.

There is a signal that clouds may begin to clear from north to
south late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Highest
chances for clearing are across central Missouri and this is
where there is currently a 30-50% chance that low temps drop
below 36 degrees. This could lead to patchy frost if skies do
clear. Most other locations look to remain around 40. A weak
upper level disturbance and surface high pressure both look to
slide near/over the area on Sunday. Given the dry air in place,
no precip is expected however another below average temp day is
expected with highs in the lower 60s. (Average highs are
68-70).

Clear skies, light winds and a dry airmass may lead to a
higher potential for frost Sunday night into Monday morning.
Latest NBM guidance shows a 50-70% chance that temps drop below
36 degrees across portions of the Ozark Plateau into the colder
valleys of the eastern ozarks. Will need to monitor this frost
potential given how warm it has been recently and the
susceptibility of growing season vegetation.

Monday through Thursday: Northwest flow on Monday will bring
another system into the area for Monday night into Tuesday.
There appears to be very little moisture recovery ahead of this
system with northerly winds in the Gulf of Mexico even into
Monday evening. A majority of the ensemble members are showing
at least light precip with this system with rain chances
currently 30-50%. The pattern looks to shift by mid week with a
mid level ridge building into the area. This should lead to a
warming trend with temps closer to average. Ensembles then bring
a stronger system into the central plains by Thursday which may
have higher moisture to work with. The Climate Prediction Center
6-10 day forecast which encompasses late next week does favor a
pattern for above average temps and higher precip chances across
the central US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Confidence is high that MVFR ceilings will persist for the first
few hours of the TAF period, lasting the longest at BBG.
Ceilings will then lift to VFR for the rest of Friday with
passing high clouds at times. Gusty north winds will decrease
through the morning and afternoon, turning northeasterly with
time. Low level wind shear is also possible for the first few
hours of the TAF period however its currently too marginal to
include at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield