953
FXUS64 KSJT 061749 AAB
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1249 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Low clouds will continue to stream north across West Central Texas
this morning, and persist through late morning or early
afternoon. After that, a dryline develop and push into the area.
Ahead of the dryline, an unstable air mass will prevail with CAPE
values well above 3000 J/KG. However, mid level temperatures have
warmed and are acting as a cap, and most if not all CAMs are
indicating that this cap will prevent convection across most of
the area. A little hesitant about this with many of the CAMs also
hinting at a mid level CU field developing across the eastern big
Country south into the Heartland, an indication the models are at
least trying to break through the cap. Will include some small
POPs a little farther west than the CAMs indicate just to be
safe, especially given the instability in place.

Otherwise, warm this afternoon with hottest temperatures across
the Concho Valley on the back side of the dryline. Highs in the
90s in those locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast across West Central
Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonal normals. Highs across the Big Country will be in the mid
80s to near 90, with highs elsewhere in the low to mid 90s. Expect
generally dry conditions to prevail.

On Thursday, an upper level trough will track across the Northern
Plains, sending a cold front south through West Central Texas
Thursday morning. Expect gusty north winds along with cooler
temperatures behind the front. Highs in the Big Country will be in
the mid 70s to near 80, with highs elsewhere in the mid 80s to near
90. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front,
mainly across our southeast counties. Overnight lows will be in the
50s to near 60. The cooler temperatures will continue into Friday,
with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

This weekend, the GFS and ECMWF both show an upper level trough/low
developing across the Desert Southwest Saturday. This feature will
then track across the Southern Plains Sunday. The ECMWF is a bit
slower and deeper with this feature than the GFS, which results in a
wetter solution. Given the uncertainty, PoPs this weekend were kept
in the slight chance to low end chance category. Highs this weekend
will generally be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Skies were clearing over western parts of the area, but all of our
TAF sites remain enveloped in low cloud cover with MVFR ceilings
at midday. Expect low cloud cover to break up 19Z-20Z at
KSOA/KSJT/KABI, and by 21Z at KBBD and KJCT. While some of our
eastern counties have a low possibility for a few isolated
thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening, the chance
looks too remote at this time to include at any of our terminals.
Breezy south-southwest winds this afternoon will decrease by
evening, and winds will become light west to northwest late
tonight into the morning hours Tuesday. Redevelopment of low
clouds is anticipated late tonight and early Tuesday morning at
our southern terminals. These low clouds should break up by mid-
morning as drier low-level air filters into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     88  57  88  67 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  91  60  94  68 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    88  68  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood   84  63  88  68 /  20   0   0   0
Sweetwater  90  58  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       90  63  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       83  66  89  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...19