391
FXUS01 KWBC 081950
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Wed May 08 2024

Valid 00Z Thu May 09 2024 - 00Z Sat May 11 2024

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are likely from parts
of the Ozarks to the Tennessee Valley tonight before the severe
weather threat shifts south on Thursday toward the Southern Plains
and Southeast...

...Heavy mountain snow and and moderate lower elevation rain
gradually wanes across the Northern Rockies on Thursday...

...Above average temperatures remain across southern Texas and the
Southeast, while warmth also begins to build into the Northwest
late-week...

Active weather is ongoing and expected to continue through tonight
across parts of the middle/lower Mississippi valleys, Tennessee
Valley, and into the southern Appalachians. The atmospheric setup
includes an upper low over the Northern Plains with associated
troughing extending into the Southwest, allowing for moist
southerly flow into the Mid-South. A quasi-stationary boundary
extending into the Ohio Valley and detached outflow boundary in
the Tennessee Valley will provide a focus for storms to develop
and track along. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to become
severe and possibly contain very large to giant hail, damaging
wind gusts, and some strong tornadoes possible. The Storm
Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe
weather between south-central Missouri to Middle Tennessee and
south-central Kentucky. Additionally, as storms overlap with
saturated soil from earlier rainfall and train behind one another,
numerous instances of flash flooding are possible. The greatest
risk for flash flooding is across southwestern Kentucky and Middle
Tennessee, where a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall
is in effect. By Thursday, the overnight thunderstorm activity is
anticipated to sink southward and impact areas from the Southern
Plains to the Southeast. Very large hail appears probable across
parts of central Texas and into the ArkLaTex region, with a
broader region of severe hail and damaging wind potential
extending through the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast.
Areas of flash flooding are also possible along this corridor
stretching between eastern Texas and central Georgia. As the
associated cold front continues to push south and east on Friday,
the scattered thunderstorms threat is expected to linger, but
remain confined to the Southeast.

A long duration heavy precipitation event is also ongoing
throughout the Northern Rockies and parts of the northern High
Plains through at least Thursday. The upper low over the Northern
Plains continues to funnel moisture into favorable upslope regions
of Montana and Wyoming. Heavy snow remains probable into tonight
across the higher elevated ranges, with moderate rainfall in the
lower elevations. As the upper low weakens and becomes more
elongated, precipitation is also expected to weaken while also
sliding southward into the central/southern Rockies. Additionally,
the well below average temperatures are forecast to remain
throughout the Rockies with a warmer trend beginning by the end of
the week.

Warm weather for the final few days of the workweek can be
expected across the Northwest, Southeast, Gulf Coast, and southern
Texas. Locations in these regions can anticipate highs around 10
to 15 degrees above average, with a few daily record highs
potentially being tied/broken. As far as actual high temperatures
go, southern Texas will be by far the hottest with highs into the
triple digits and upper 90s. Low-to-mid 90s are forecast across
Florida on Thursday, with 80s and 90s throughout the rest of the
Gulf Coast and Southeast. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest will
also need to break out the summer clothing and stay hydrated as
highs soar into the 80s by Friday, with low 90s possible in
localized interior valley locations from central California to
Oregon.


Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$