Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
000
FXUS66 KSTO 102058
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
158 PM PDT Wed Apr 10 2024
.Synopsis...
Dry and warm weather continues through Thursday. A weak weather
system will bring cooler temperatures and unsettled weather Friday
and into the weekend.
&&
.Discussion...
Current GOES-West visible satellite imagery shows mostly sunny
skies with just a few wispy high level clouds passing over
interior northern California on this Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures are currently trending approximately 2 to 7 degrees
warmer than this time yesterday afternoon, valid at 145 PM PDT.
High pressure continues to build over the region today and shifts
eastward Thursday, bringing continued warm and dry weather to the
region. For today and Thursday, daytime high temperatures will be
trending approximately 10 to 15 degrees above normal compared to
mid April climatology.
A weak weather system will approach the area later this week,
bringing cooler temperatures and unsettled weather to interior
NorCal on Friday and Saturday. Models are also suggesting a few
showers and isolated thunderstorms (15-25% probability) mainly in
Shasta County late in the day on Thursday. The potential for
isolated thunderstorms becomes more widespread on Friday and
Saturday, with a 15-30% probability for thunderstorm development.
Best chances are in the northern Sacramento Valley, foothills, and
mountains, and in the afternoon and evening hours. Potential
impacts include gusty winds, small hail, lightning, and brief
heavy rain with any thunderstorms that develop.
The main precipitation will be moving in Friday and continue into
Saturday, in the form of showers and mountain snow showers. Only
minor impacts are expected from precipitation with this system. Snow
levels will initially be high, around 7000 to 8000 feet Friday
night, lowering to around 5500 to 6500 feet Saturday, then down to
around 4500 to 5000 feet Saturday night. Heaviest snowfall is
currently expected to be Saturday. Showers and snow showers will
continue into early Sunday and then taper off.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)...
By Sunday, ensemble guidance and cluster analysis depict the
eastward departure of the low toward SoCal and the Great Basin. A
few lingering showers are to be expected over the
foothills/mountains early Sunday morning before clearing out by
midday with little to no impact.
As this system fully exits the region by Monday, upper-level
ridging moves onshore, bringing NorCal into a dry weather pattern
with warmer temperatures and breezy winds through mid-week. Winds
in the Valley will take on a more northerly component Tuesday and
Wednesday with gusts 15 to 25 mph. The strongest winds are
expected along the I-5 corridor in the Sacramento Valley with the
National Blend of Models (NBM) indicating a 40 to 60% chance of
gusts greater than 30 mph on Wednesday. Temperatures will begin to
gradually increase through early week as daytime highs climb back
up into the 70s in the Valley and 50s & 60s in the
foothills/mountains Tuesday and Wednesday. The NBM shows a 15 to
25% chance of high temperatures greater than 80 in the Northern
Sac Valley on Monday. The general area expands to encompass the
entire Valley on Tuesday/Wednesday with probabilities ranging from 10
to 25%.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hours with surface
winds generally below 12 kts. Brief MVFR conditions in isolated
showers or thunderstorms across portions of Shasta County 00z-06z
Friday.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$