395
FXUS62 KTAE 021726
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
126 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 434 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Dense fog will likely overspread the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend
early this morning and may extend into portions of SE Alabama and SW
Georgia before dissipating around mid/late morning. Very warm
conditions are expected to continue today with deep layer ridging
overhead. A few showers and storms may be able to develop,
particularly along the east coast sea breeze as it eventually pushes
into our area. Forecast soundings with an inverted V and DCAPE over
1000 J/kg indicate any storms that do develop today could become
strong to severe with gusty winds and hail the primary threats.
Given the ridging, though, coverage is expected to be pretty sparse.
Highs are forecast to soar into the upper 80s to low 90s areawide,
with lows overnight in the low to mid 60s. Fog will be possible
again overnight tonight into early Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 434 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

A pair of shortwaves look to move across the southeast this weekend.
The first one on Saturday looks to move directly overhead, allowing
for some decent forcing for ascent. Our best rain chances look to be
across our SW Georgia counties, with lower probabilities as one
moves southwest towards the FL Panhandle. Sunday into Monday a
shortwave further to our north moves northeast. Forcing for ascent
will be weaker with this shortwave, leading to lower precip chances
than the Saturday shortwave. Regardless of the day, scattered
showers and a few strong storms could be possible. Severe weather is
not expected. The synoptic pattern looks to change for most of CONUS
by mid-week with a trough deepening across central CONUS. However,
across the southeast the ridge doesn`t budge and actually builds
back. This will lead to persistent above average temps as surface
high pressure dominates.

Expect daytime highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s with
overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at KABY and KVLD through the
period. KTLH and KDHN may see MVFR visibilities tomorrow morning,
though there is some uncertainty. The site with the highest
confidence is KECP where IFR visibilities will occur beginning as
early as 04z. Reduced visibilities will occur at the aforementioned
sites through 13-14z before clearing up.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 434 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

High pressure off the Atlantic will lead to tranquil boating
conditions through the period. Light winds, generally out of the
south-southeast, are expected with seas around 1 to 2 feet into the
weekend. There may be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 434 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Warm and moist conditions are expected to continue through the next
several days with southeast to south flow across the area.
Expect the seabreeze to move inland each afternoon across the FL
zones. A few showers and storms will be possible this afternoon and
Friday, with rain chances increasing a bit dramatically on Saturday.
Very high mixing heights could lead to high dispersions across
portions of the FL Panhandle and SE Alabama during the afternoons.
Dense fog will be possible in the mornings, particularly across the
Florida zones.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 434 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Minor flooding continues along the Lower Suwannee River for about
another 24 hours. Additional riverine flooding is not expected,
generally less than half an inch of rain is forecast through the
next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   65  89  67  87 /   0  20  10  50
Panama City   66  84  68  85 /   0  10   0  20
Dothan        64  89  67  87 /   0  10  10  50
Albany        66  88  67  86 /  20  20  20  70
Valdosta      67  89  67  84 /  20  20  10  60
Cross City    65  89  66  86 /  20  10   0  40
Apalachicola  68  80  69  80 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Oliver