Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 130206
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Mar 13 0205 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 13-Mar 15 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 13-Mar 15 2024

             Mar 13       Mar 14       Mar 15
00-03UT       1.67         2.33         3.00
03-06UT       1.33         1.33         2.00
06-09UT       1.33         2.00         2.00
09-12UT       1.33         2.00         2.67
12-15UT       1.33         2.00         2.67
15-18UT       1.33         2.67         2.67
18-21UT       1.67         2.67         2.67
21-00UT       1.67         2.00         3.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 13-Mar 15 2024

              Mar 13  Mar 14  Mar 15
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 13-Mar 15 2024

              Mar 13        Mar 14        Mar 15
R1-R2           15%           15%           20%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due
to isolated M-class flare activity will persist throughout the forecast
period primarily due to the potential exhibited by AR 3599.


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