National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KTSA 150917
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
417 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Low cloudiness is expected to overspread the area early this
morning and persist for much of the day, especially with high
level cloudiness also streaming across the area. A few high based
showers may develop this afternoon across parts of southeast
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, but any rainfall amounts will
remain light.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A capping inversion is likely to greatly limit thunderstorm
development along the dry line to our west, and even if a few
storms develop, they will likely weaken before making it into our
area late this evening. The more likely scenario is for a
scattered to broken line of showers and thunderstorms to develop
late tonight near or just ahead of a Pacific cold front that will
be approaching the area. This activity will sweep quickly east
across our area late tonight and Tuesday morning, with at least a
limited severe weather potential.

Redevelopment Tuesday afternoon is most likely to be just east of
our area, but this will need to be closely monitored. Fire weather
concerns will ramp up Tuesday afternoon, especially to the north
and west of Tulsa where green-up has not been as significant. If
rainfall late tonight is heavier than expected, this may mitigate
the fire weather concerns to some degree. Lighter winds by
Wednesday will lessen fire weather concerns that day.

A strong cold front will move across the area Thursday afternoon
and evening bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms,
some possibly severe. This front will stall just south of our area
Friday and Saturday, with shower and storm chances increasing to
its north, especially from late Friday through Saturday. The
greatest rain chances will likely remain across the southern half
of our forecast area during this time frame.

Dry weather will return by late this weekend into early next
week, with temperatures remaining below the seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions prevail across the area early this morning,
However, MVFR ceilings become more likely at area sites
after sunrise with conditions improving in the afternoon
once again. Used a "prob30" at area sites toward the end
of the period to convey the potential for scattered showers
and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  66  83  56 /  10  60  20   0
FSM   80  65  81  61 /  20  40  50  10
MLC   77  66  83  58 /  20  60  20   0
BVO   82  64  83  52 /  10  70  20   0
FYV   80  64  78  57 /  10  40  60  10
BYV   81  65  78  59 /  10  30  60  10
MKO   79  65  82  58 /  20  50  30   0
MIO   81  65  80  56 /  10  50  50   0
F10   79  65  82  57 /  20  60  20   0
HHW   76  64  80  63 /  20  40  30   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...10