Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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312 FXUS64 KTSA 061756 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1256 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1015 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Only a few adjustments to the short-term forecast were made, specifically increasing PoPs (up to 20-30%) across the entire forecast area late this morning into early this afternoon. Latest hi-res convective allowing models have been consistent in producing warm-sector isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms between 18-20z (1-3 PM CDT), with main focus area across southeast OK into northwest AR. There is still some uncertainty on the convective evolution and how organized these storms could potentially get. But given today`s setup and environment, there is potential for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms (main concerns: large hail and strong wind gusts) early-mid afternoon with this activity. Will continue to monitor conditions closely. Overall, the previous short-term forecast remains valid and on track. Please see the short-term discussion below. Mejia && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY.... Latest data continue to support the likelihood for significant severe weather across portions of eastern OK today. It is a day to remain weather aware and have trusted weather sources for your information. Amplified trough is currently aligned through the Intermountain West while rapid moisture return is underway downstream across the southern Plains. 00z upper air data sampled extremes within both the wind field associated with the trough and the source region of moisture return. Additionally, low level vapor imagery reveal the EML spreading east across the west TX and quickly replacing the more lackluster lapse rates downstream. The combination will yield a rapid expansion of instability across the warm sector by early afternoon while wind fields aloft steadily strengthen through the day. A complicating and more uncertain feature is the weak warm front aligned along the Red River valley its evolution through the day. A typical model bias across the local region is to suggest early day convection within these recovering airmass patterns, however today may be a more valid scenario. Any early afternoon storms will pose a severe risk and, should the coverage exceed forecasts, then a longer lived severe weather window will be realized. A much more certain storm evolution will be severe storms quickly developing across western OK by mid afternoon and spreading eastward through the evening and overnight hours. Deep layer shear orientation will favor cellular storms with the initial development and this more favorable orientation holds true through the overnight hours with southward extent. Further north a trend toward broken line segments appears probable by mid to late evening. This transition and varying storm mode appears likely to felt largely across the local forecast area impacting predominant hazards and warning configurations. Short term CAM ensemble guidance have good agreement on a notable strengthening of the low to mid level wind fields between 00z-06z firmly across the forecast area and, while the exact impacts are unknown, the likelihood for significant severe weather is expected to accompany this evolution. The southern extent of the severe storm coverage will be limited by the residual capping inversion in wake of the lifting upper wave. However, several CAM members show long track UH swaths on the southern periphery of the convection. Any established strong supercell will continue well into an otherwise strongly capped airmass and this scenario appears valid today given shear vector orientation. The risk of severe weather will continue through northwest Arkansas late tonight and significant severe potential may expand that far east though uncertainty is higher at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 A brief lull in severe weather will occur Tuesday, however airmass recovery will be well underway ahead of the next upper wave and associated cold front. Intense low level jet develops Tuesday night with associated warm moist advection potentially igniting storms by early Wed morning across NE OK / NW AR. Should morning storms develop then a quick transition toward severe weather is likely given forecast soundings. Otherwise, the focus will be along the advancing cold front and early day convection appears likely as minimal capping is expected ahead of the front. While low level flow is more veered than the Monday event, the presence of strong instability and ample shear suggest higher end severe weather is likely. The focus for storms will steadily spread east of the forecast area by mid to late afternoon. And then a more prolonged break in the active pattern arrives. Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected for late week into the weekend with the next chance of precip early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Low-level stratus (MVFR/IFR cigs) continues to plague portions of the region early this afternoon. Still anticipating widespread VFR over the next couple of hours. Added SHRA/-TSRA at MLC, FSM, FYV, XNA, and ROG for mid-late afternoon. If any shower/storm moves over these terminals, a brief period of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys may occur. A better chance of thunderstorms will occur mid-late evening and into the overnight hours as a squall line is forecast to develop and move through the region. The squall line will bring in very heavy rainfall, very gusty winds, and potentially large hail. Exact timing and duration is still somewhat uncertain, but the convective line of storms should push through and clear the area northwest-to-southeast by 12z Tuesday. After the storms push through, MVFR cigs may linger through the mid-morning hours before clouds clear and VFR prevails. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 81 59 83 61 / 20 80 10 10 FSM 82 69 86 65 / 20 80 10 0 MLC 81 67 85 66 / 20 70 10 0 BVO 79 55 81 56 / 20 80 10 10 FYV 80 64 83 61 / 20 80 10 10 BYV 80 64 82 59 / 20 80 10 0 MKO 80 64 81 61 / 20 90 10 10 MIO 80 61 80 58 / 20 90 10 10 F10 80 63 82 62 / 20 80 10 10 HHW 81 69 84 66 / 30 40 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning for OKZ054>067. AR...None. && $$ UPDATE...67 SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...67