453
FXUS64 KTSA 050521
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 805 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The earlier thunderstorms that produced a few reports of hail up
to dime size in northwest AR this evening have moved out of the
forecast area, leaving us with a temporary lull. Regional radar
trends show showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop
across southwest and south central OK, and with the approach of
an upper level system later tonight this will expand further into
parts of eastern OK, primarily after Midnight, and become rather
widespread by morning. Sent an update earlier to remove POPs
through 03z, with the rest of the forecast unchanged.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across the
area Sunday morning, shifting to the north and east with time
along with the movement of the upper level support. Some
redevelopment potential may exist during the late afternoon hours,
depending on how much instability can develop behind the earlier
batch of storms. Flash flooding will be the main concern, however,
given the widespread rains that could be locally heavy and the
antecedent conditions.

Attention then turns to the potential for significant severe
weather late Monday and into Monday night. Some data are
indicating potential for showers and thunderstorms across
southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas early in the day in
response to increasing mid level moisture. However, do not think
it will be substantial enough to warrant the high POPs offered by
the NBM during the day and as a result, have cut back on those.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop as early as late afternoon
but more likely early to mid evening along and ahead of an
approaching cold front/dryline. Areas north of I-40 continue to
look most likely to see thunderstorms given the main upper system
is located well north of the area. Even in areas further south,
however, the environment supports a high end severe threat with
any storm that develops. This threat looks to continue into the
overnight, waning toward Tuesday morning.

Additional mainly afternoon and evening storms remain expected
through mid week until the main upper level system finally shifts
east. These storms will also pose a severe weather threat,
although specifics may depend on how things evolve earlier in the
week. Expect cool and dry weather to move in late in the week and
into the weekend, likely a very welcome break for all.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Widespread showers and storms will spread across eastern OK /
northwest AR tonight through mid afternoon Sunday. The combination
of periodic thunderstorms and MVFR to IFR ceilings will impact
flight conditions area wide. Expecting low ceilings to persist in
wake of departing precip with continued flight level impacts
through Sunday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  82  68  87 /  20  30  70  10
FSM   63  83  70  87 /  30  30  50  20
MLC   64  82  70  86 /  20  30  40  10
BVO   58  81  62  85 /  20  30  70  10
FYV   62  82  66  84 /  40  30  60  30
BYV   60  80  66  83 /  50  30  60  30
MKO   61  80  68  85 /  20  30  60  20
MIO   60  80  64  83 /  30  30  80  30
F10   61  80  68  85 /  20  30  50  10
HHW   64  79  69  85 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...07