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000
FNUS73 KUNR 241029
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Victoria RX...USFS
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
429 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Dry and warm conditions are expected today with the
afternoon relative humidity dropping to 24-27%. Winds will be
southeasterly today through Thursday afternoon. The southeast winds
will result in slightly higher humidity on Thursday. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will develop around the Black Hills Thursday
afternoon and may impact the burn area after 1500. Wetting rains are
likely Thursday night.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........24-27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts to around 20 mph before 1200.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......7400 to 7900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    southwest overnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......400 to 900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and thunderstorms after 1500.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........32-35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts to 20 mph on the
                    ridgetop. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1500, then 3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......5900 to 6400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers and
                    thunderstorms likely.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    north by 2000. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................65 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2400, then 2.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......400 to 900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South around 15 mph becoming north.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

$$
Forecaster...KC
Requested by...Wayne Yanders
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412120.0/UNR
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL thomas.roerick@usda.gov,brandon.sanchez@usda.gov,wayne.yanders@usda.gov