Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 220307
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
807 PM PDT Thu Mar 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty southwest winds are expected across much of the
area on Friday with even stronger winds possible on Saturday
thanks to a storm system that will drop in over the area this
weekend. Expect an increasing chance for light showers which could
bring light snowfall to the mountains. Cooler temperatures will
settle in over the area this weekend then warm back to seasonal
averages by the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Considerable high clouds will spread across our region
late tonight through Friday along with increasing southwest winds
ahead of an approaching broad Pacific System. Sunshine will be more
filtered Friday, but temperatures will remain several degrees above
normal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the Mojave
Desert zones. Significant winds develop by Saturday with the
potential for widespread gusts over 40 mph across southeast
California and southern Nevada. The latest ensemble-based model
guidance supports the forecast trends detailed in the previous
discussion and no immediate changes are needed.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
130 PM PDT Thu Mar 21 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Friday through Sunday.

A quiet weather pattern will generally hold through Friday before
becoming more active. Over the next 10 days, 3 storm systems are
lined up to bring potential impacts to the area with 2 of those
systems expected to bring unsettled weather conditions to the area
within the next 7 days.

Although Friday`s weather will continue to be mild, we will begin
to feel the effects of a closed low off the Pacific Northwest
coast. Shortwave energy at the base of the low approaches the
southwest California coast bringing gusty southwest winds and
abundant mid and high clouds to the area. Fairly widespread gusts
of 20-30 mph are expected with possible gusts of 30-40 mph in
parts of the Owens Valley, southern Inyo County and northwest San
Bernardino County. The winds are mostly below advisory levels so
we should not need any wind products for Friday. Similar to today,
high temperature should top out around 5 degrees above normal this
afternoon with an outside chance of 80 degrees at the airport.
Provided we don`t officially reach 80 degrees in Las Vegas today,
tomorrow will be the last opportunity over the next 7 days to
reach that threshold for the first time this year.

Saturday looks like a wind advisory type of day across a good
chunk of the area. In collaboration with neighboring offices, have
decided to pass any product issuance to the next shift, allowing
them an additional look at the next hires model cycle to better
tie down timing and affected locations. Winds generally decrease
Saturday evening everywhere but the Western Mojave Desert and
parts of the Morongo Basin where gusts, potentially advisory level
gusts, linger through Sunday. Less wind on Monday although breezes
continue across the western Mojave Desert region.

For precipitation, both rain and snow amounts are not significant
enough to warrant any headlines. This is basically unchanged or
less concerning than what we have been looking at for the past
few days. Elevations below 9000 feet in the Sierra are forecast to
get roughly 3-6 inches of snow with 1-3 inches elsewhere
including the Spring Mountains. We should see a good 6-8 degree
drop in high temperatures on Saturday followed by a similar drop
on Sunday, ending up roughly 10 degrees below normal on Sunday.

Monday through Thursday.

Ridging builds over the area late Monday through early Wednesday
before the next system of interest begins stirring up winds on
Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures rebound through the middle of
next week before cooler temperatures return.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds this morning,
with southwest breezes pushing in this afternoon. Confidence is high
(75%) in southwest winds exceeding 10 knots during this time, with a
40% chance of peak gusts exceeding 20 knots. Speeds expected to fall
below 10 knots after sunset (~03z) as winds remain southwesterly
through the night. Slightly stronger winds forecast tomorrow. VFR
conditions through the TAF period with FEW-SCT clouds aoa 15kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy south-southwest winds at most sites today, with
gusts generally in the 15-20 knot range. Strongest winds likely at
KDAG, where peak gusts up to 30 knots are possible. Speeds expected
to wane after sunset, but remain breezy at KDAG and KHND through the
night. At KBIH, light northerly or variable winds for most of the
TAF period, with a period of breezy west-northwest winds expected
between 23z and 03z. VFR conditions around the region with periods
of SCT-BKN clouds aoa 15kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adair
DISCUSSION...Salmen
AVIATION...Woods

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