Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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943
FXUS61 KAKQ 030216
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST OFF THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
THEN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11PM.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COMING INTO THE PIEDMONT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS STILL BACK OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH A GUST FRONT PUSHING OUT IN ADVANCE. RAP
MESOANALYSIS STILL INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO WORK
WITH AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
TREND OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN DOWNWARD WITH THE MAIN THREAT
TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY
POPS THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE FRONT REACHES THE PIEDMONT LATE
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING OVER CENTRAL VA TO THE COAST. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ESE AND JUST OFF THE CST TUE THRU TUE
NGT...WITH CAT OR LIKELY POPS TUE MORNG...GRADUALLY DECREASING FM
NW TO SE. ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ANY SVR TSTMS ON TUE...AND
MAINLY OVR SE VA AND NE NC. OTHERWISE...COULD HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THESE AREAS. HI TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
60S TO THE UPR 70S. LOWS TUE NGT WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S TO NEAR
60.

UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE AREA WED THRU THU...DUE TO
UPR AIR LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE
MID ATLC REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESPLY WED AFTN THRU
THU...ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HI TEMPS ON
WED WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WED NGT MAINLY IN
THE LWR TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
PRECIP WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT MOST OF THE
SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME
TSTMS ARE STILL PSBL. TAF CIGS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO MVFR/IFR
CONDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE MORNING/AFTN IS PSBL BUT THE FRONT
WILL BE STALLED OVER THE AREA AND MORE SHRAS ARE LIKELY. CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL COTNINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK LOCALLY...WITH
GENERALLY S TO SW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL GRADUALLY DROP SSW TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SW FLOW OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. SEAS THIS AFTERNOON ARE 3-4FT AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH ~2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH THE WIND BECOMING NNE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE
FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE FLOW AOB 15KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...AJZ



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