Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
146 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA.
BREEZY AND A BIT MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROF FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE
REGION THIS EVENING/OVRNGT AND WILL BRING SCTD CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT
TO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 25/2100Z NW THRU 26/0600Z SE. SW OR W
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND BECOME BREEZY FOR SUN MORNG INTO SUN
AFTN. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT INLAND WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARND
25 KT POSSIBLE ALNG THE IMMEDIATE CST. HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE
MID ATLC REGION SUN NGT AND MON...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR MON
NGT INTO WED MORNG. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH
WINDS BECOMING SSW AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT MON AFTN. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED INTO WED EVENG.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...






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