Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 260812
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
412 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building across the Southeast states today will
promote dry and pleasant conditions. Warmer temperatures and a
chance for showers and thunderstorms will return over the
weekend. A cold front will approach from the west on Memorial
Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low pressure continues to lift NE over southern New England this
morning. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure is building over the
Southeast states. With the low continuing to head NE today,
expect deep layered WNW flow to promote dry, breezy and
comfortable conditions under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs
in the upr 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the WSW tonight
into Sat. Models in decent consensus w/ the arrival of weak S/W
tracking into the FA by Sat afternoon/evening. Combination of
daytime heating and that S/W in WNW flow aloft will likely
result in at least SCT convective development. Will have PoPs
increasing to 30-50% over most of the FA. SPC has outlooked
wrn/central areas of FA in a slight risk...w/ remaining areas in
a marginal risk. Forecast soundings do show ML cape values of
1000-1500 J/KG, with 30-40 kt of effective shear and steep low-
level lapse rates. Main threats will be large hail and localized
damaging winds. Otherwise...mainly clear to partly cloudy
tonight-Sat morning...then becoming mostly cloudy Sat
afternoon. Lows from the upr 50s NW to the low/mid 60s SE.
Highs Sat from the mid/upr 70s-around 80F on the eastern shore
to the mid/upr 80s inland.

Nearly zonal flow aloft remains Sat night into Sun. Another S/W
aloft expected to arrive late Sun...which again combined w/
daytime heating likely results in SCT convective development.
Lows Sat night ranging through the 60s. Partly to mostly cloudy
Sun w/ highs mainly in the low/mid 80s, except 70s Eastern
Shore and at the beaches.

Will highlight possible strong to severe tstms in HWO for the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The somewhat unsettled weather will continue into Monday with the
baroclinic zone nearby and a strong upper jet just north of the
area. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms once again on
Monday in the cyclonic flow. It will be a warm day with highs in the
mid-upper 80s.  The front will stall out over North Carolina on
Tuesday and may allow for additional showers and storms Tuesday
across NE NC and south VA. High pressure builds across the
region for Tue Night-Thursday with dry and seasonable conditions
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will take hold today as drier weather moves into
the region. West winds will gust up to 25 mph.

Sct showers and storms return for Saturday afternoon into early
next week as the pattern remains somewhat unsettled.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure off the NJ coast will continue to move NE and away from
the area today. Meanwhile, another trof will rotate around this low.
Models continue to show a decent pressure gradient behind the
departing low through mid afternoon with diminishing winds by
evening. Thus, SCA headlines remain in place today for WSW winds
15-25 kts and 4-5 ft seas.

High pressure to the south builds into the region tonight and Sat
resulting in winds aob 15 kts, seas 2-3 ft. Flow becomes onshore
once again Sat night and Sun as a frontal system stalls across the
region. Expect winds aob 15 kts, seas 3-4 ft. Sct aftrn / evening
tstrms will pose a threat to mariners this weekend as weak low
pressure tracks along the frontal boundary.

The start of the 2017 rip current season features a moderate threat
of rips along the lower Delmarva beaches with a low risk over VA
Beach and the northern Outer Banks.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Previous onshore flow combined with high astro tides will continue
the elevated water levels through the weekend. Coastal flood warning
remains in place through 10Z across the Ches side of the lower
MD eastern shore. Otw, all statements / advisories have been
allowed to expire. This afternoons high tide cycle is forecasted
to be low enough for most if not all sites to remain below action
stage. However, tonights high tide cycle may required another
round of statements / advisories as levels will likely exceed
action stage and approach minor flooding thresholds once again.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR



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