Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311426
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THRU NE NC WITH SCTD
SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT OVR SE VA INTO
NE NC. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND OFF THE CST DURING TODAY...WITH
HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FM THE WNW. THE HUMIDITY WILL BE
LWR (MORE COMFORTABLE) ACRS JUST ABT THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT
FAR SE VA AND NE NC...WHERE THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP
OVR THESE COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENG. HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID 80S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR DRY WX AND A MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE A LITTLE
ON SAT. LOWS TNGT IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE CST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW SHOWN TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA SAT AFTN INTO
SUN MORNG. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS WHETHER OR NOT IT CAN
MUSTER UP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES.
FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY...AS MODELS NOT ALL THAT
CONVINCED THAT IT WILL. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
SAT NGT IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S. REMAINING DRY MOST PLACES ON
SUN...AS HI PRES REBOUNDS. THERE`S A MAINLY SLGT (20%) CHC OF
ISLTD SHOWERS ACRS THE FAR SE WITH A WEAK CSTL BOUNDARY STILL IN
PLACE. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...EXCEPT MID 80S
AT THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP INTO TUE...BUT THEN
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT WED/THU...THE OPERATIONAL GFS BEING MUCH
STRONGER/PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE
ECMWF (OR THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS). TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID
80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. GENLY
LOOKS DRY ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A 20-30% POP IN NE NC DUE TO
POTENTIAL SEABREEZE. FOR TUE-WED...FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN HOT WX FOR
TUE...AS BOTH MODELS HAVE RISING H8 TEMPS AND A W/SW FLOW IN LOW
LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP DUE MAINLY TO A WEAK CAP WITH H5
HEIGHTS ONLY 585-588 DM. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 90S INLAND AND
90-95 F AT THE COAST. LESS CONFIDENCE FOR WED/THU...GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MUCH COOLER CONDS...WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO PERHAPS 100 F. WHILE THE ECMWF/WPC PATTERN WILL
GENLY BE FAVORED (COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH UNTIL THU AFTN)...THINK
THE DRIER/HOTTER WX WILL ULTIMATELY NOT BE AS HOT AS PREDICTED DUE
TO ANTECEDENT WET/HUMID CONDITIONS OF THE PAST MONTH. FOR NOW WILL
SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING WITH HIGHS WED 90-95 F AND THU UPPER 80S TO
LWR 90S. DEW PTS ARE FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOW
60S WEST OF I-95 THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THIS...MID 60S WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT
INDICES STAYING BELOW 105 F NEXT WEEK. AS FOR POPS...WILL ONLY
HAVE ~20% POPS WED...RISING TO 30% MOST AREAS THU W/ THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE N.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...BULK OF SHRA ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE, BUT WE
ARE STILL NOTING SOME LINGERING SHRAS AT ECG. FRONT NOW ORIENTED
ACROSS FAR SE COASTAL AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST...THROUGH ECG BY ~12Z. VFR CONDITIONS ON NLY WINDS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY W/ A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY. A
SLGT CHC OF TSTMS IS IN THE FCST BY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES CONFINED TO SERN PORTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE ALL AREAS WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
10-15 KT. FRONT WEAKENS ACRS ERN NC/SSE OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WILL CARRY PREDOMINATE
10-15 KT (15 KT FAR NRN CHES BAY) IN THE BAY THIS MORNING. WAVES
IN THE BAY AVG 2-3 FT BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
SEAS AVG 2-4 FT...ARE STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING NORTH...BUT RISING
ACRS THE SOUTH.

WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSE AND VEER TO THE SSW
FOR LATER TNGT AND SAT...AND REMAIN LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS JUST TO OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS BRIEFLY
VEER OFFSHORE (W-NW) EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BACK TO THE E-SE SUN
AFTN/EVE...AND SSW MON/TUE, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WAVES SAT INTO NEXT WEEK AVG 1-2 FT IN
THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE RAISED MODERATE RISK FOR RIPS VA BEACH AND NC OUTER BANKS AS
~15 KT NNE/ONSHORE WIND IS BRINGING 3 FT NEARSHORE SEAS TO THE
SURF ZONE. THIS...COMBINED WITH A FALLING TIDE PREVAILING THROUGH
MID AFTN SHOULD YIELD STRENGTHENING RIPS. (LOW TIDE DOES NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND 2 PM).

WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD TODAY AS FLOW HAS
TURNED NNE. ANOMALIES MAY RISE AGAIN WITH EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE
SATURDAY NIGHT ON SLY (CHANNELING) FLOW UP THE BAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT. AS WITH YESTERDAY, TIDAL ANOMALIES
LOOKING TO BE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF
A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT BISHOPS HEAD/CAMBRIDGE COULD YIELD SOME
SPOTTY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO FALL SHY OF MINOR
FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ


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