Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT. WIND GUSTS TO 20KT HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT AND ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 20KT IN SRN CHES BAY. WILL
HOLD ONTO SCA HEADLINES THROUGH 1000 AM BUT MAY NEED TO DROP
EARLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING. THE NLY SURGE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700
AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR
SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1- 2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO
2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



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