Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1010 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM


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