Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 231112
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
712 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Post-Tropical Storm Jose will continue lingers off the New England
coast before dissipating later this weekend. Meanwhile, high
pressure will continue to influence the weather pattern through
early next week. Hurricane Maria is forecast to move northward
between the offshore Atlantic waters and Bermuda through the early
part of next week. A cold front is expected to cross the area by mid-
week pushing Maria east of the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose continues to linger just of the coast of
southeast New England. High pressure has centered over the
Northeast. Patchy fog, some areas locally dense, has once again
developed this morning over portions of the Piedmont and interior
northeast North Carolina. Any remaining fog will quickly dissipate
after sunrise. High pressure will allow for continued dry weather
and above normal temperatures today. Highs will range from the lower
80s near the coast to the mid/upper 80s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will be in control of our
weather pattern over the weekend, as PTC Jose weakens and shifts a
bit further offshore. High pressure in combination with NNE flow
will allow for continued dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Will have to keep and eye on Hurricane Maria which will be moving
north off the SE coast by Sunday and Monday. Right now Maria is
expected to take a course similar to Jose, keeping it well offshore.
Highs Sun-Mon will generally be in the mid 80s, except upper 70s at
the beaches. Lows will range from the lower 60s inland to upper 60s
near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A broad upper ridge is expected to prevail Monday night
through Wednesday from the Great Lakes across the Northeast Conus co-
located with surface high pressure. Meanwhile, a cut-off upper low
(400-200mb) is progged to drop SE from the nrn Gulf Coast to the FL
peninsula. The strength of the ridge and the presence of the upper
low is potentially complicating the situation with Hurricane Maria.
This is resulting in a westward shift in the track with the 23/00z
global models, with the tropical cyclone taking a turn toward the NW
and heading toward and approaching the Outer Banks during the
Wednesday/Wednesday night time-frame per 23/00z ECMWF/GFS. Note the
23/00z CMC appears too fast. Monitor the latest official forecast
tracks from the National Hurricane Center. This more westward track
would bring an increasing threat of more wind/higher PoPs along the
coast by midweek. For now, PoPs and sky cover have been nudged up. A
vigorous trough eventually pushes through the Great Lakes
Thursday/Thursday night, breaking down the ridge and pushing Maria
well offshore. The associated cold front crosses the area late
Thursday/Thursday night, resulting in cooler conditions late in the
forecast period.

Highs Tuesday range from the upper 70s to low 80s, Wednesday in the
upper 70s to mid 80s, low/mid 80s Thursday, and the 70s Friday. Lows
Monday night through Wednesday night range from the mid 60s to
around 70F, then mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Any patchy fog (mainly ECG) is expected to quickly dissipate
early this morning. Outside of any fog, VFR conditions and light
winds are anticipated through the forecast period due to the
influence of high pressure over the region.

Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions, with the exception of
patchy morning fog, are anticipated through the weekend due to
the influence of high pressure over the region. Sub-VFR
conditions will be possible early to mid next week, primarily at
eastern TAF sites, as moist northerly flow from Tropical Cyclone
Maria overspreads the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Early this morning, Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose remains centered
SE of Cape Cod, and is forecast to gradually pushing ewd thru
Sun while weakening. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria was located
about 350 miles east of Nassau, and is forecast to track to the
NNW thru today, then track nwrd thru Wed to well off the outer
banks of NC.

Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas
generally 3-6 ft. Some portions of the area will have seas fall
at times below 5 ft over the next few days. However, the SCA
for hazardous seas will continue, and will be extended thru Sun
night, as energetic ESE swell will continue. Swell arrives from
Maria most likely beginning Sun night, and continuing into next
week. The bulk of the forecast guidance still keeps Maria just
offshore Tue into Thu, before it gets kicked quickly ENE out to
sea Thu night into Fri night. Based on the latest guidance, have
increased winds and seas fcst for Mon thru Wed. Monitor the NHC
forecast for the official forecast track of Maria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels expected to remain elevated at all sites through
the weekend, but given that the swell is not as large as what
it has been, they should stay just below flood. Will need to
watch for additional flooding next week, especially in the
bay as the swell from Maria moves into the area.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues thru today, as swell/nearshore waves will be
slow to subside.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT
     this afternoon for VAZ078-084>086-523.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ095>097-524-525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ099-100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT
     this evening for VAZ075-077.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Monday
     for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ/ALB
AVIATION...AJB/AJZ
MARINE...TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ


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