Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND DRIFT EAST ALONG FOR A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSSES THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING OFF THE COAST REMAINS IN CONTROL AND
LOOKS TO HOLD PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS A LOT OF CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS CLOUD
COVER WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A STRONG SPEED MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OFF THE SE COAST.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER SW FLOW.
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECT MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOW-
MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THE TIMING OF THE
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW BUT THE HANDING OF THE BEST UPPER
DIVERGENCE DIFFERS JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE EXACT TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION TRICKY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA SUN AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NE ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER THE REGION. A SERIES OF UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
PROVIDE LIFT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SWLY
FLOW THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SPREADING SW TO NE
ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL VA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
FORECAST, BUT POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL ONCE
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE BEST PRECIP IS KNOWN. HIGHS SUN IN THE MID-
UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S SE WHERE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
LOWER. THIS INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP LIFTS THRU THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.

THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST...EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SE COASTAL PLAINS AS SWLY FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUES. THE LULL IN PRECIP SUN EVENING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS INTO THE REGION
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SFC LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT...LIFTING INTO NC EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VA AS WELL AS NE NC.
MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT NOW LINGERING SOME
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA INTO MON EVENING. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
THRU MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS MON RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
IN THE N TO NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH.

UPPER JET AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE REGION
MON NIGHT INTO TUES...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL UVM. REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MON NIGHT INTO
TUES MORNING. TEMP PROFILES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THRU
TUES MORNING...AS THE BEST CAA ARRIVES AS PRECIP PUSHES OFFSHORE
LATE MON NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU TUES
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGH TUESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH REGARD TO OVERALL PATTERN. A COLD ZONAL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER. LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
24 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE /A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST/. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO THE LOWER/MID 30S SE...WITH MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE 06Z...AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE 40S...AND IN THE 40S ALL
AREAS FRIDAY... EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WHERE 50S LOOK LIKELY.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FROM NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM. GFS REMAINS 12-18 HOURS FASTER THAN
ECMWF...WHICH DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT...DELAYING FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED...WITH
CLOUDS AND SHWERS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY...WITH MANY AREAS POTENTIALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS PREVAILED OVER THE AREA
STATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED DRIER THROUGH 18Z
AND HELD OFF ON PUTTING PCPN THROUGH THEN.

NO FOG ISSUES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER AND WAA.

OUTLOOK...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE N/W SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING WITH
PERIODS OF IFR INDICATED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A
TEMPORARY DRYING SHOULD OCCUR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN AND PSBL IFR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ALONG/JUST OFF THE VA/NC COAST.
SOME INCREASE IN WINDS LIKELY TONIGHT/EARLY SUN...WITH SPEEDS IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY...AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE N/NE ON MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO LINE
WITH EARLIER FORECAST REASONING...AND ARE NOW INDICATING A STRONGER
SURGE...WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT THAT SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD TO 5 FT OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE MON-TUE IN N/NE FLOW OF
15-20 KT. MAY NEED SOME SCA HEADLINES DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...WITH
WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX 88D RADAR IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST
WED 12/31. SEE FTMDOX (FREE TEXT MESSAGE) FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...WRS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/WRS
EQUIPMENT...






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