Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 041407
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1007 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC. THIS TROUGH IS NOW NEAR ROGERS CITY
AND EXTENDING TO LEELANAU PENINSULA...GENERATING PERIODIC SHOWERS
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN HAS SINCE DIMINISHED. TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF WATERSPOUTS
FROM ANY PRODUCTS DUE TO OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY DECREASING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SO
FAR THIS MORNING HAVE TEMPERATURES ALMOST NEAR 70 ALREADY...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH AND ADJUST TEMPERATURES AS NEEDED.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...LARGE SWIRLING LOW PRESSURE IS DRIFTING
INTO QUEBEC WITH SEVERAL WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA CONTINUING TO ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THESE WAVES AS
ENHANCED AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUD...SOME OF WHICH ARE DRIFTING
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MORE LIGHT RAIN WAS SEEN ACROSS THE
WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE/BATCH OF
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SW ONTARIO. WINDS WERE LIGHT...BUT SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

GONNA BE ANOTHER SHOWERY DAY TODAY. EACH OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA
WILL SWEEP INTO NRN MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH A COUPLE MORE TONIGHT.
THIS IS GOING TO KEEP US IN A PERIODICALLY SHOWERY SCENARIO. THESE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED TO AT LEAST SOME DEGREE BY H8
TEMPS OF +8C THIS MORNING...AND +7C LATER TONIGHT...OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE WEST/NW FLOW WILL FOCUS THE
SHOWERS MORE CONFIDENTLY ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN. MANY AREAS OF NRN
MICHIGAN HOWEVER WILL SEE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY
AND/OR TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...IN THE 60S...WITH
LOW 70S IN DOWNSLOPING FLOW REGIMES OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING OF NOTE.

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES HEADING
INTO MIDWEEK...AS WE SEE THE GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE MID LEVEL
FLOW UP THIS WAY WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A RATHER ROBUST
CLOSED LOW SPINNING INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. THAT SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
DOMINANT UPPER TROUGHING TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA WITH
TIME...WITH A RETURN TOWARD A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER INTO LATE WEEK...THOUGH AMPLIFIED A BIT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WEAKER SHORTWAVES TO
ESSENTIALLY MEANDER THROUGH THE FLOW IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
FROM A POSITION BASICALLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES LATER THURSDAY...OPENING THE DOOR TO A SLOW
NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE LATER ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT (AND ESPECIALLY THEREAFTER)...AHEAD OF AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH INTO THE WESTERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY IS RATHER
STRAIGHTFORWARD...AS DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN STUCK IN A RELATIVE THETA-E MINIMUM. WE SHOULD STILL MUSTER
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN. THE TRICKIER PART OF THE FORECAST COMES LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING HINTS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MAY WELL RAMP UP...AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT (ALBEIT STILL RATHER WEAK) DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT. TO BE
PERFECTLY HONEST...CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN STELLAR REGARDING THE
OUTCOME OF THIS SETUP...WITH PLENTY OF GUIDANCE SPREAD WITH REGARD
TO A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT TIED TO SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LEE
CYCLONE OVER THE MID OR UPPER MISS VALLEY. GUT FEELING IS THE NAM IS
A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS HINTS OF RAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE OUT LATER DAY AND NIGHTTIME SHOWERS IN THE
EXPECTED RATHER NEBULOUS REGIME. THUNDER THREAT LOOKS BASICALLY NIL
WITH ALL AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TUCKED SAFELY WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING MUCH. PERHAPS A VERY SMALL
THREAT FOR THUNDER TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER RISK FORESEEN.

THE LOW CONFIDENCE FORECASTING CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT
REALLY GET THE FEELING OUR CURRENT MAINLY DRY FORECAST MIGHT JUST BE
IN TROUBLE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON A
SOLUTION SUGGESTING THE SLOW APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TOWARD FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...ULTIMATELY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THAT SAME PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE REMAINS THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF BY FAR MORE ROBUST AND FASTER WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE LAGGING GFS...THOUGH THAT MODEL HAS BEEN ALL OVER
THE BOARD AS OF LATE. A CONSENSUS APPROACH IS STILL PROBABLY
BEST...BUT EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE STRUGGLED WITH SUCH A
NEBULOUS REGIME THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SIMPLY PUT...FEEL COMPELLED
TO CARRY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES BY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE
WAVE/WARM FRONT. COULD WELL BE LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINS
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT...BUT THE REMAINS PLENTY OF
SPREAD TO MAINTAIN JUST SOME CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. THOSE PRECIP
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER ISSUES COULD ALSO WREAK
HAVOC ON TEMPS...BUT THE OVERALL FLAVOR IS FOR READINGS TO CONTINUE
HOLDING A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS SET TO RETURN
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST MONDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER
STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER AND TEMPS...THOUGH A CONSENSUS BLEND WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS BASED ON PREVIOUS GUIDANCE
TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...VFR...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL PERIODICALLY DRIFT THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN...WITH A SFC TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED SOUTH OF
PLN...AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT TVC/MBL/APN. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY
AND NO EXPECTED MVFR. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE WNW WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS 15-20KTS. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT TONIGHT WITH MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AN OVERALL WESTERLY WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NEARSHORES AGAIN
TODAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...LOW END ADVISORY GUSTS AT
WHITEFISH BAY AND AROUND PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT. CURRENT ADVISORY IN
THESE AREAS LOOKS FINE...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE
EVENING. MORE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS WELL...ENHANCED BY OVERLAKE INSTABILITY
THIS MORNING. CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS INCREASE AS WELL OVER THIS
TIME...AS A SFC TROUGH SWINGS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXACTLY PRIME. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AND DESPITE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES...AIR MASS TOO
DRY FOR RAIN. WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD


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