Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 012131
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
331 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

1002 MB CYCLONE CENTERED IN FAR WESTERN INDIANA WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS IOWA. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT
JET STREAK IN THE GREAT LAKES ENHANCING THE STRONG VERTICAL MOTION.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
OF 50 DEGREES AS FAR NORTH AS PADUCAH KY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS AT
KDVN WAS 175% OF NORMAL AT 12Z WITH 249% OF NORMAL AT KLZK.

THE RESULT IS A MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SO FAR OF 8 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING TO 40 MPH WITH DRIFTS AS HIGH AS 4 FEET. THIS IS EERILY
REMINISCENT TO THE GROUND HOGS DAY OF 2011 ALMOST TO THE DAY!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

HEADLINES...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING.

FORECAST FOCUS ON WINDING DOWN THE STORM TONIGHT THEN MOSTLY SUNNY
BUT VERY COLD ON MONDAY.

TONIGHT...CYCLONE WILL BE TRACKING TO WESTERN PA BY 12Z MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE SNOW TO END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
LINGERING IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. STRONG NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 TO 40 MPH PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING
INTO THE CWA FROM THE PLAINS DIMINISHING THE WINDS. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES. THIS IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE LOOPS
IN THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN. THIS WILL ALLOW A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH DEEP SNOW COVER. I WILL FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NW TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SE.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 TO 15 BELOW TOWARD MORNING.

MONDAY....MOSTLY SUNNY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 ABOVE
NW TO THE TEENS SE. LUCKILY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CWA
PROVIDING RATHER LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOT
SEEING THE FREEZING MARK UNTIL TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL CLIPPERS
LOOK TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
AN INCH. THEN A SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH MORE. BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE ECMWF BRINGS AN EVEN STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS. COLDER AIR INVADES
THE AREA BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MIDWEST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 10 TO 15 RANGE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 30S AS STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN
THE PLAINS...AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. ON SUNDAY...
ECMWF/GFS INDICATE A STRONGLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADING THE MIDWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-30 KTS. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
     MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05








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