Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 061359
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
859 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

HAVE UPDATED TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA FOR
THIS MORNING. ZONE OF WEAK MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN WI CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN
WI. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS VERY WELL. THE SHOWERS
WERE MOVING SOUTH INTO FAR NW IL BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY PUSH
INTO THE DVN CWA AWAY FROM THE BETTER WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER N ARKANSAS THIS MORNING LEAD TO
WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US. A BAND OF
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SURGED SOUTH OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. ALOFT
A H5 HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WAS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST AS AN
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO BREAKDOWN. THIS OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN AND H5 RIDGE WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND THE LOW END CHANCE FOR POPS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH A DIGGING WAVE AND FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME
TIME MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY IS THAT IT IS GOING TO BE VERY
MUCH LIKE SUMMER TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE VERY COMFORTABLE
RANGE.

OMEGA BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN AS A THE DIGGING WAVE MOVES
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER IN THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL AID IN EJECTING THE CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY WITH THE SFC HIGH
TRANSITIONING TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS. A GANDER AT THE 00Z RAOB SHOWS MIXING TO NEAR H8
TODAY. A QUICK MIX DOWN OF THIS LEVEL FOR HIGHS TODAY SUGGESTS
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AREA WIDE. LOOKING AT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS
THAT SUPERBLEND LOOKS TO BE THE BEST FOR TEMPS OVERALL. LOADED
THE 00Z SUPERBLEND AND THEN TWEAKED UP A DEGREE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TEMPS WERE WARMER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
PRECLUDES HIGHER TEMPS.

KEPT POPS TO SCHC AND A SMALL AREA OF CHC FOR NEAR 12Z SATURDAY AS
SAGGING FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. WHILE THE CAMS PRODUCE QPF...THE
LACK OF CONVERGENCE LEADS TO A SCATTERED NATURE OF THE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND NOON SATURDAY.
MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS IOWA
SATURDAY MORNING.  NAM IS THE DRIEST SOLUTION AND THE GFS IS THE
WETTEST... BUT ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO HAVE THE PRECIP AREA
TOO FAR NORTH INTO THE COLD AIR...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVE.  AT ANY RATE...EXPECT SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR THE FRONT SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AGAIN MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN STALLING THE COLD FRONT OVER MISSOURI AND LIFTING IT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GULF WILL BE OPEN AND
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES INTO
IOWA AND STALLS WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA.  SPC OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING...THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE THE TIME FRAME TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.
WILL KEEP LOW POPS THROUGHOUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARIES TO
BE IN THE REGION.

WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN/STORMS...COULD SEE 2 OR MORE INCHES OF
RAIN IN SOME AREAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANY CIGS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE WELL ABOVE 12000 FEET AND FEW IN NATURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY WITH SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS AND UNDER 15 KTS. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUST TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE HELD OFF
ON THOSE AT THIS TIME.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...GIBBS


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