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FXUS64 KEPZ 232155
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
255 PM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Today`s brief warmup to mild conditions will end abruptly overnight
into Tuesday as yet another Pacific low pressure storm system
drops in from the west. This system arrives tonight bringing
scattered mountain snow and isolated lowland rain. Areas north and
west of Las Cruces have the better precipitation chances with
areas to the south and east staying mostly dry. Wind will be a
factor as winds increase overnight. East slope areas will see
strong winds with a wind advisory in effect tonight. Cooler and
breezy conditions follow for Tuesday as the storm exits to bring
back drier air. The rest of the week looks cool and dry before
warming returns to end the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broad upper-level Pacific storm system is slowly dropping south
across the western U.S. towards the SW U.S. This system will
arrive late tonight and begin to affect the western mountain zones
with increasing precipitation chances after midnight tonight. As
the system approaches pressure gradients aloft will tighten as a
surface low develops to our NE. This will increase wind speeds off
the surface. Prog sounding show a good inversion with a stable
layer around 8500 ft MSL. The NAM shows 45kts in the mixing depth
and the GFS shows 55kts. There is good chance of mountain wave
deflection with strong winds surfacing over east slope areas
overnight. Thus we have posted a wind advisory for the two zones
east of the Franklin, organs, and San Andres; which includes East
El Paso, White Sands NM, and White Sands Missile Range areas.
West winds in the 25-35 mph range with some gusts over 50 mph will
be possible. Advisory is in effect from midnight to 9am TUE
morning.

The system appears generally starved for moisture. A narrow band
of moisture will move in from the NW, but Dewpoints and PWs only
briefly rise above 40 degrees and .40" respectively...and then
drop back. There is some dynamics involved with a Pacific front, a
PVA channel, a 140kt jet, and slight cooling aloft to help bring
the environment toward saturation and cause some lift/instability.
Best combo of moisture and dynamics holds over the Gila Region
overnight with spill over into the SW and N central lowlands and
Sacs towards morning. Both the GFS and the NAM indicate pcpn
chances pulling back for the daylight hours TUE. Thus our best
POPS are overnight and through 18Z before limiting to mountains
after 18Z and then scouring all out after 00Z WED. QPF and snow
amounts look quite limited with rainfall/liquid up to .33" and
snow in the 1-4" range above 7000ft. Thus we appear to stay below
any winter headlines. Snow levels will drop to around 5500ft west
and 6000ft east.

The large western U.S. trough holds in place over the region for
Tuesday but the bulk of the moisture and dynamics look to remain
north leaving most of our region dry...but cool and breezy. The
surface low does begin to shift east, and away, into the plains
keeping our winds down in the breezy range. Temperatures will be
noticeably cooler Tuesday behind the Pacific front.

Wednesday the western trough begins to lift away. Our region will
remain cool, but see much drier air and clearer skies over the
area. Winds will also slacken as pressure gradients loosen.
Thursdays follows with a quasi-zonal westerly flow pattern that
keep the region dry and seasonal. Friday a minor upper trough
slides in from the north. It appears to arrive with no moisture to
speak of...so it looks like a dry passage. However it does help
draw a cool front into the region with north winds ushering in a
reinforcing shot of cool air which keeps daytime desert highs in
the 50s.

The weekend ahead looks to stay dry as the Friday system passes
and high pressure regains control over the Southwestern U.S.
Temperatures should be on the rise once we get past Friday. The
only precipitation chances in the forecast are for tonight and
Tuesday.

14-Bird

&&

.Aviation ...Valid 24/00Z-254/00Z.
Pacific front moving through the area will increase surface winds
through period. Winds will be 2420G25KT thru 06Z then 25025G30KT
with strongest gusts on east slope terrain where gusts to 45KTS
are possible. Expect P6SM SCT- BKN100 BKN250 with possible -SHRA
north and west of Las Cruces. Above 7000 ft possible SHSN with
decreasing vsbys due to blowing snow.

28-Pazos

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Pacific storm system accompanied by a cold front will move across
the area later this evening and into tomorrow. As a result wind
speeds will increase areawide this afternoon with windy conditions
prevailing across most area by Tuesday. Although winds will will
reach critical thresholds min RH will remain below these
thresholds alleviating any red flag concerns. This system will
bring precip chances to the higher elevations and zones west of
the Rio Grande. A few inches of snow could be possible in both the
Gila Region mountains and Sacramento mountains. Cooler conditions
will follow for the remainder of the week. This will result in a
continuation of Min RH values generally above 30 percent all
areas. Stronger transport winds on Tuesday will result in
excellent vent rates.

28-Pazos

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 46  56  33  51 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           39  56  30  50 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              38  51  27  47 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo              38  52  27  47 /  20  20   0   0
Cloudcroft              27  34  14  31 /  50  30   0   0
Truth or Consequences   36  48  25  45 /  20  10   0   0
Silver City             29  39  21  37 /  70  30   0   0
Deming                  35  50  25  47 /  20  10   0   0
Lordsburg               34  50  24  46 /  60   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      42  55  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               38  57  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            39  60  31  53 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              38  49  30  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  39  57  31  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            39  54  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          44  53  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           36  51  22  46 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                   37  50  27  46 /  20   0   0   0
Columbus                38  53  28  49 /  20   0   0   0
Orogrande               40  53  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 33  42  22  39 /  30  20   0   0
Mescalero               32  40  21  36 /  40  30   0   0
Timberon                31  41  22  36 /  30  20   0   0
Winston                 29  40  18  38 /  60  20   0   0
Hillsboro               33  44  22  42 /  40  20   0   0
Spaceport               35  49  22  45 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            26  38  10  37 /  70  30   0   0
Hurley                  32  40  22  40 /  60  20   0   0
Cliff                   33  42  17  43 /  70  20   0   0
Mule Creek              33  40  16  42 /  70  20   0   0
Faywood                 32  43  22  42 /  50  20   0   0
Animas                  36  52  26  48 /  50   0   0   0
Hachita                 35  50  25  47 /  20   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          36  52  25  49 /  20   0   0   0
Cloverdale              35  43  26  43 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MST Tuesday for
     NMZ413.

TX...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MST Tuesday for
     TXZ419.

&&

$$

14/28


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