Area Forecast Discussion
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312
FXUS64 KEPZ 250843
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
243 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
West and southwest flow across the Borderland today and tonight
will keep the region dry and skies mostly clear. Temperatures will
be very near seasonal. Most areas will again be sunny and dry
Tuesday, but to the east a cool front will push in and begin to
bring moisture, clouds, and chances for rain and storms back to
areas east of the Rio Grande. Wednesday through the upcoming
weekend, persistent gusty east winds behind stronger frontal
passages will keep the region cooler and more moist. Increased
chances for rain and thunderstorms begin Tuesday night and more so
on Wednesday for the entire region. These elevated rain chances
will continue into the weekend. Some of these storms could become
severe with large hail, damaging winds, and flooding rains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Deep and stationary upper trough remains parked to our west.
Surface trough has shifted east just enough to keep low level
winds SSW-SW. With SW flow aloft having brought a dry slot over
the region, and low level flow shoving moisture east, today will
be dry with mostly clear skies. Temps will be near average. Winds
will be moderate with some afternoon breezes near 15 mph.

Big changes begin Tuesday, and the models have been consistent
with these big weather changes. The upper pattern keeps the upper
trough/low to our west...so no change aloft, but the surface shows
several strong backdoor frontal boundaries to push in from the
east. The first arrives Tuesday. It is the weakest of several over
the next few days. It will pull up stationary near the Rio Grande
Valley Tuesday afternoon. Areas to the east will see an increase
in low level moisture. Aloft a SW flow will not yet tap mid-level
moisture. So most of the CWFA will remain dry and seasonal, but
east zones will see chances for rain/storms and cooler temps.

Tue night into Wednesday...and then again THU and FRI...we see
several more stronger pushes from the east. East winds in the
30-40 mph range will be likely...especially over west sloped and
through passes. Dewpoints PWs will rise sharply (from 20s-30s
today to 50s-60s WED). PWs will more than double from <.50" to
>1.0". Instability will be moderate to strong with MUCAPEs
1000J/KG or more in many locations. There will be surface forcing
in the form of convergence. There will be upper-level jet and PVA
dynamics. And finally there is healthy speed and directional
shear. All this should help to increase shower and storm activity
and enhance storm strength. In addition, with an extended period
of rain potential, and deep and healthy moisture, flash flooding
is also a concern. Cool temperatures, below normal, may help to
moderate the potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall.

The upper system to our west, helping to keep the moisture,
dynamics, and instability remains in play through the weekend. It
finally exits the region Monday/Tuesday of next week. It isn`t
until then we finally bring a dry westerly flow pattern back over
the region to end rain/storm chances and erase POPs from the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 25/12Z-26/12Z...
Dry air over the area today and tonight will result in VFR
conditions for all terminals. Skies SKC. Winds 240-270 7-16kts.
VSBY unlimited.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Westerly winds aloft have pushed moisture (mainly east of the Rio
Grande) farther east and thus will continue dry conditions to all
areas today. Drier air will persist through most of Tuesday
mainly west of the rio Grande. A backdoor front will push in
Tuesday from the east. Areas east of the Rio Grande will see
cooler temperatures and the return of rain/storm chances Tuesday
afternoon. For the rest of the week,temperatures will trend down
and will be at or below normal. Reinforcing pushed from the east
will bring gusty east winds, cooler temperatures, and more
widespread precipitation with some possibly heavy with a flooding
risk starting Wednesday into the rest of the week for all areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 86  62  82  60 /   0   0  10  40
Sierra Blanca           84  60  75  55 /   0   0  20  50
Las Cruces              83  56  78  55 /   0   0  10  40
Alamogordo              84  56  77  53 /   0   0  30  40
Cloudcroft              64  40  56  37 /   0  30  50  50
Truth or Consequences   83  54  78  55 /   0   0  10  40
Silver City             78  47  76  49 /   0   0   0  30
Deming                  83  52  79  55 /   0   0   0  40
Lordsburg               80  51  80  56 /   0   0   0  30
West El Paso Metro      84  63  80  60 /   0   0  10  40
Dell City               85  59  77  56 /   0  20  30  50
Fort Hancock            87  61  82  59 /   0   0  20  40
Loma Linda              84  60  74  52 /   0   0  20  40
Fabens                  86  61  82  59 /   0   0  10  40
Santa Teresa            84  60  79  57 /   0   0  10  40
White Sands HQ          84  59  77  57 /   0   0  10  40
Jornada Range           84  54  78  55 /   0   0  10  40
Hatch                   84  55  80  57 /   0   0   0  40
Columbus                84  55  80  57 /   0   0   0  40
Orogrande               85  59  76  56 /   0   0  10  40
Mayhill                 72  47  63  41 /   0  40  60  60
Mescalero               74  46  66  42 /   0  20  40  50
Timberon                73  46  64  41 /   0  10  40  50
Winston                 80  44  74  42 /   0   0  10  40
Hillsboro               83  52  77  50 /   0   0   0  40
Spaceport               82  52  77  53 /   0   0  10  40
Lake Roberts            79  43  75  42 /   0   0  10  40
Hurley                  80  49  77  50 /   0   0   0  30
Cliff                   80  40  79  43 /   0   0   0  30
Mule Creek              79  42  77  42 /   0   0   0  30
Faywood                 82  51  76  50 /   0   0   0  40
Animas                  81  50  81  56 /   0   0   0  30
Hachita                 82  51  80  55 /   0   0   0  30
Antelope Wells          84  51  82  55 /   0   0   0  30
Cloverdale              81  52  79  53 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14-Bird



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