Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 012117
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
317 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY WITH MOST AREAS GETTING
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. MANY OF THE STORMS AND SHOWERS ARE HIGH
BASED AND NOT PRODUCING THAT MUCH PRECIPITATION. OVERALL MOSTLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW
AREAS MAY RECEIVE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN. WITH FREEZING LEVELS
BEING HIGHER...LARGE HAIL IS NOT A THREAT AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME
SMALL PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL MAY OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE IS SHOWING AN INVERTED V SHAPE
WHICH INDICATES A LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS IN
PLACE. THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH. A LITTLE LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO OCCUR IN DUST
PRONE AREAS FROM THE STRONGER WINDS.

A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN PUSHING MOISTURE BACK TO THE
EAST LATER TONIGHT...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. THE FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THIS IS THE
RESULT OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST. DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS. A FEW AREAS MAY GET CLOSE TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY FRIDAY...A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND A
DEEPENING LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAKE THE GENERAL FLOW
PATTERN MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE STATE...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A RESULT. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL STORMS MAY ALSO BE
FED INTO THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ON WHERE THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WE BE
LOCATED...RANGING FROM ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO. BEST GUESS AT THIS
TIME WILL BE PRIMARILY EASTERN ARIZONA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEW MEXICO GENERALLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. CAN NOT RULE SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS WELL.
FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL FURTHER REFINE THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z-03/00Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION AND SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY...EVEN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.  FOR EARLY THIS EVENING HOWEVER...LOOK FOR ISOLD MTN
-TSRAGS/WND VRB20G45KTS/LCL VIS 5SM/CIGS 060-080 THROUGH 01Z.  ISOLD
LOWLAND -TSRAGS/WND VRB25G55KTS/LCL VIS TO ZERO SM IN BLDU/CIGS 100-120
THROUGH 03Z. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE LCL STORM OUTFLOWS...WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH 16Z TUESDAY.  WINDS INCREASE AND SHIFT WEST
10-15 KTS AFT 16Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS TO 50 MPH OR MORE AND DRY LIGHTNING ARE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING WILL WORK WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE TO
MAINTAIN DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED MOUNTAIN AND MAINLY LOWLAND STORMS
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  STORMS WILL TRACK FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10 MPH.  THE RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW TO OVERSPREAD
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY FLAT
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE
LOWLANDS REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OF CUMULUS.  WE WILL ALSO SEE BREEZY
SOUTHWEST 20 FT WINDS EACH AFTERNOON.  SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 MPH
WILL BE CONFINED ALONG FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS RIDGE-LINES AND
DOWN EAST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS.

BY MID WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH STARTS OF DIG SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA.
MUTUAL CIRCULATION AROUND BOTH FEATURES WILL STRENGTHEN THE
SOUTHWEST-SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION...PROVIDING A PATH
FOR SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH LATER IN THE WEEK.  MODELS CONTINUE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REMNANTS OT TWO-E MAKING IT INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER BULK OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO STREAM OVER
ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LIKELY AN UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY AS
SOON AS FRIDAY OVER WESTERN ZONES.

LOWLAND MIN RH REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 10% WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...TO LOWER 20S EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
READINGS NEAR 30% ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.  VALUES FALL
5-10 PERCENT TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER 10 PERCENT WEDNESDAY. MIN RH
SHOULD START TO CLIMB BACK UP LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE.  MIXING HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 11000
FEET OVER THE SACS...TO 16000 FEET OVER THE BOOTHEEL. VALUES FALL
ROUGHLY 2000 FT ALL AREAS TUESDAY...THEN POSSIBLY ANOTHER 1000 FT
WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT OF THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT. HAINES
INDICES 4-5 ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...CLIMBING TO 5-6 TUESDAY
AND REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 70  99  69  98  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           64  96  64  95  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              62  97  61  94  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              62  96  62  95  61 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              51  75  52  75  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   61  96  61  94  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             56  86  54  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  60  97  57  95  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               60  96  57  94  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  99  69  97  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               63  99  62  97  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            67 100  67  99  66 /  10   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              64  93  65  91  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  65  99  66  98  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            65  98  64  96  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          66  96  65  95  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           60  96  58  94  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   61  97  59  96  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                65  97  63  94  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               66  97  66  95  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 56  82  57  82  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               53  83  54  83  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                54  82  55  82  55 /  20   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 53  86  52  86  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               58  94  56  93  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               58  97  58  95  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            52  86  50  85  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  56  90  53  88  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   55  93  53  92  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              48  91  45  90  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 58  91  56  89  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  60  96  59  94  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 59  97  56  95  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          58  96  57  94  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              58  92  55  90  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/22 LUNDEEN/TRIPOLI




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