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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 010843
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
243 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS SETTLED DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP YOUR
LABOR DAY MONDAY HOT AND DRY. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS YOU NEED
NOT WORRY ABOUT ANY RAIN OR STORMS...BUT YOU`LL LIKELY WANT SOME
SHADE TO COMBAT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS LOWLAND
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE FETCH TO MOVE
BACK OVER THE REGION. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LAST NIGHT`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING CAME IN WITH ONLY .74" OF PW.
THAT`S ABOUT 25% BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS
AND THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE DRYING OUT TO THE 35-45 DEGREE RANGE
IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE SOUNDING DOES SHOW A VERY THIN SLIVER OF
MOISTURE AT ABOUT 14KFT BUT IT IS ONLY SEED MOISTURE FOR FLAT FAIR
WEATHER AFTERNOON CUMULUS. ADDITIONALLY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CWFA AND THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED A
STRONG WARM LAYER ALOFT TO INHIBIT ANY UPWARD CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS.
ALL OF THIS MEANS THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND NO CHANCE OF STORMS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A VERY WARM
LABOR DAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWLAND TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR OR AT 100
DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

THE ABOVE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...AND THE
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO DELAY ANY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFTS
MEANING WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FOLLOW SUIT WITH WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH DOES BEGIN
TO DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW SOME E/SE FLOW TO BEGIN TO DRAW TX GULF
MOISTURE IN OVER THE E ZONES. THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION DRY...BUT
THE NAM AND ECMWF DO PRODUCE SOME QPF OVER/E OF THE SACS AND THE
GUADALUPE MTNS. CURRENTLY WE HAVE POPS IN FOR ONLY THE SACS AND
THE HIGHER ELE. OF THE GILA REGION. THE SACS ARE MORE PROBABLE.

THURSDAY THE FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE S AND SE CONTINUES AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO CONTRACT EAST. THIS ALLOWS SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE TO WORK IN...ESPECIALLY OVER SE AZ AND FAR SW NM. THIS
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY. BOTH DAYS THE BETTER RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER AREAS MTNS AND W ZONES. WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND REDUCED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WE
SHOULD TRIM THE TEMPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND
FRI.

SATURDAY ONWARD THE MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE WAINS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
EASTERN PACIFIC FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. A CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AND TRACK NORTH
UP THE BAJA. THIS STORM WOULD BE NAMED "DOLLY". OUR AREA HAD A
HEAVY RAIN-MAKER "DOLLY" IMPACT THE REGION IN 2008 FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE CURRENT SCENARIO COULD SEE THIS YEAR`S E. PAC "DOLLY"
INFUSE A LOT OF MOISTURE INTO OUR FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A
WEST COAST TROUGH IN PLACE DOLLY COULD POSSIBLY TRACK INTO THE
REGION LATE MON/TUE. WE`LL BE WATCHING THIS AS IT WOULD MEAN
POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD EVENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


NONE THE LESS...FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WE COULD SEE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWFA AS THE MODELS HINT AT
THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH PRESSING EAST AND SHIFTING THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME EAST OVER THE CWFA. THUS FOR THESE PERIODS THE POPS
ARE UP A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z - 02/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS. SKC-FEW080/FEW250 WINDS 30010KT. OCNL MDT TURBC
IN THERMALS SFC TO 8KT AGL UNTIL 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
OUR AREA WARM AND DRY AIR UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AFTER
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT MORE TO THE
EAST AND ALLOW SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO RETURN INTO OUR
AREA. THIS IN TURN SHOULD BRING MORE CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS...AND ALSO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                100  75 100  73  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           97  70  96  71  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              99  69  98  69  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              98  68  97  71  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              77  53  77  53  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   97  68  97  68  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             93  64  93  64  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  98  68  99  68  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               97  67  97  66  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO     100  73  99  72  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY              101  72 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK           100  75  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              95  72  93  71  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  98  72  97  73  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA           100  70  99  71  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          97  70  96  70  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           96  69  96  67  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   99  68  98  68  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                97  70  96  69  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               98  70  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 85  60  85  59  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
MESCALERO               86  60  86  57  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
TIMBERON                86  61  86  59  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
WINSTON                 87  59  87  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               93  67  92  66  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               96  68  96  68  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            91  57  90  60  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  95  66  94  66  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   95  52  95  52  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              91  50  92  51  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 93  66  92  66  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  96  67  95  67  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 98  67  97  67  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          96  65  95  66  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              95  68  93  67  94 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD




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