Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 292119
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
319 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE BORDERLAND AND THIS
MEANS MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
SHIFTS WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY KEEPING MOST AREAS EAST OF A
DEMING TO TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES LINE DRY FOR THOSE TWO DAYS.
HOWEVER THE MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
BRINGS A RETURN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO ALL
AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AFTN/EVE OF FAIRLY UNIFORM MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY WITH PW EVENLY AT OR JUST ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS THE
AREA. YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHT`S UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ARE EXITING THE REGION AND WASHING OUT. THEIR INFLUENCE
ON OUR EVENING/OVERNIGHT WEATHER SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THUS WE
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION TO CONTINUE FROM THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT STORMS BEYOND
MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE RARE TO NON-EXISTENT WITHOUT ANY EXPECTED
DYNAMICS OR TRIGGERS.

FOR SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTS WEST TOWARD ARIZONA AND OUR
CURRENT MOISTURE SHIFTS WEST WITH IT AS DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ALOFT. A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS... BUT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THE
AIRMASS SHOULD BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
THUS A LACK OF RAIN/ STORM MENTION FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
FOR THESE DAYS TOO AS WE SEE MORE SUN UNDER THE EAST EDGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THESE SHOULD BE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK
AHEAD.

TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE THAT SHIFTED TO OUR WEST FOR SUN AND MON
BEGINS TO TRANSITION BACK EAST BRINGING THE DEEPER MONSOON
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWFA WITH IT. THIS GETS MOISTURE OVER OUR
ZONES BACK TO A MORE UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION. THUS BACK TO ISOLD/SCT
POPS FOR ALL ZONES...WITH A SLIGHT EDGE FOR HIGHER POPS TO THE
WEST AND CERTAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
BIT COOLER...WITH MORE MSTR/CLOUDS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE REGION WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. SLOW STORM MOTION
COULD MEAN HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ANY STORM. THIS PATTERN REMAINS A CONSTANT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS. THUS WE SIT UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN EVERY DAY TUE THOUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WE
RECYCLE THE MOISTURE EVERYDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING...OROGRAPHICS
AND OUTFLOWS GENERATING DAILY STORMS.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/00Z-31/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS CONDUCIVE FOR BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH INTO THE
LOWLANDS... WITH POTENTIAL FOR TSRA AT ALL TAF SITES.  DMN IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED BEING DOWNSTREAM OF THE GILA...BUT WITH TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES DID NOT INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS.  EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF TCS-LRU LINE AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT FILTERS IN ELSEWHERE.

25-HARDIMAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOCUSED NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN
SCATTERED SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE
RIDGE POSITION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S TO 30S IN
THE LOWLANDS...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

25-HARDIMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 70  94  71  96 /  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           66  94  66  95 /  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              66  93  66  94 /  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              66  94  67  95 /  10   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              46  71  46  73 /  30  20   0  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  91  66  91 /  20  10  10  30
SILVER CITY             61  84  60  86 /  30  40  20  50
DEMING                  65  93  65  93 /  20  10  10  30
LORDSBURG               65  93  64  93 /  30  20  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      70  94  71  96 /  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               65  95  66  98 /  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            68  96  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              66  90  66  93 /  10   0   0   0
FABENS                  67  95  67  98 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            68  94  69  95 /  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  94  68  95 /  10   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           66  94  66  94 /  10   0   0  10
HATCH                   64  94  66  95 /  20   0   0  20
COLUMBUS                65  94  66  94 /  20   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               66  94  68  95 /  10   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 52  77  52  81 /  20  20   0  20
MESCALERO               53  80  52  82 /  20  20   0  20
TIMBERON                54  79  54  81 /  20  10   0  20
WINSTON                 56  80  55  83 /  40  50  30  60
HILLSBORO               63  90  62  91 /  30  40  20  40
SPACEPORT               65  92  66  93 /  10   0   0  20
LAKE ROBERTS            53  82  52  85 /  40  60  20  60
HURLEY                  62  86  60  88 /  30  30  20  40
CLIFF                   56  88  58  89 /  30  30  20  40
MULE CREEK              55  86  55  88 /  40  40  20  40
FAYWOOD                 62  88  62  90 /  30  30  20  40
ANIMAS                  65  92  66  92 /  30  30  20  30
HACHITA                 64  92  64  92 /  30  30  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  88  63  89 /  30  50  20  40
CLOVERDALE              62  84  61  87 /  40  50  20  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/25


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