Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 241038
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
438 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The monsoon season continues throughout this week, though some
drying out will occur Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect scattered
thunderstorms again today with some heavy rain and local flooding
possible. Thunderstorm coverage will become more isolated Tuesday
and Wednesday with the drying, but then moisture moves in from the
east for increasing thunderstorm coverage Thursday and Friday.
Strengthening high pressure aloft may then step coverage back to
isolated for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Large scale monsoon pattern will continue through the forecast
period, but with some subtle changes. Upper high now over northern
New Mexico and will slowly drift east over the Texas Panhandle
tonight. Abundant moisture will persist, with PWs around 1.2 to
1.4 inches and dewpoints in the 50s to 60. Thunderstorm coverage
in the scattered category again, though GFS continues to show the
western zones favored with higher POPs, especially tonight. A few
of these storms could produce heavy rain and local flooding.

Tuesday and Wednesday...models showing a bit of drying aloft, with
PWs around 1.1 to 1.2 inches and dewpoints in the lower 50s. Some
warming aloft also, with 500mb temps around -3 to -4, which is not
good for thunderstorm development. Coverage more isolated looks
reasonable at this time.

Thursday and Friday...upper high begins drifting back toward the
Four Corner region. Resultant northeast flow aloft will push some
recycled moisture back in to the area, and a easterly push tries
to organize at low levels. No significant change in PW/dewpoint
values but some cooling develops at 500mb. Went ahead with slight
increase in POPs both days.

Saturday and Sunday...some drying again aloft will limit
thunderstorms to mostly isolated.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/12Z-25/12Z..
Mostly VFR conditions are expected with P6SM BKN120 BKN/OVC through
the period. After 17Z...scattered thunderstorms will develop,
mostly over the mountains...and then spread, or develop, over the
lowlands after 20Z. Ocnl IFR with +TSRA CIGS AOB030 VSBY 1-3SM.
Wind gusts near storms 30-40 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A very moist and unstable airmass will persist through this
weekend across the fire zones. Coverage today will be a bit less
than Sunday, but some heavy rain and local flooding still
possible. Thunderstorm coverage will lessen to mostly isolated
Tuesday and Wednesday with slight drying and less instability.
Temperatures will warm back to normal by Tuesday and Wednesday. A
slight increase in moisture will increase the thunderstorm
coverage again on Thursday and Friday.

Min RH values for today will run around 35% to 45% lowlands and
50% to 50% mountains. Min RHs will decrease on Tuesday and
Wednesday into the 30s lowlands and 40s mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 91  71  93  73 /  30  30  20  20
Sierra Blanca           89  68  90  69 /  30  20  20  20
Las Cruces              90  67  92  69 /  30  30  20  20
Alamogordo              90  67  91  70 /  40  40  20  20
Cloudcroft              68  51  69  52 /  60  50  70  20
Truth or Consequences   90  67  91  69 /  50  40  20  30
Silver City             83  61  86  63 /  60  50  40  30
Deming                  90  67  90  69 /  30  40  20  20
Lordsburg               88  66  89  69 /  60  50  30  30
West El Paso Metro      90  70  92  72 /  30  30  20  20
Dell City               92  69  93  72 /  30  20  20  20
Fort Hancock            92  72  93  74 /  30  20  20  20
Loma Linda              85  66  88  69 /  30  20  20  20
Fabens                  91  71  93  73 /  30  20  20  20
Santa Teresa            90  69  92  71 /  30  30  20  20
White Sands HQ          90  68  91  70 /  30  30  20  20
Jornada Range           90  67  91  69 /  40  40  20  20
Hatch                   92  67  93  69 /  30  40  20  20
Columbus                90  68  91  70 /  30  40  20  20
Orogrande               91  70  91  72 /  30  30  20  20
Mayhill                 75  56  80  57 /  60  50  70  20
Mescalero               75  56  80  58 /  60  50  70  20
Timberon                74  56  79  58 /  60  50  50  20
Winston                 80  60  85  61 /  60  50  50  30
Hillsboro               87  64  90  66 /  60  50  40  30
Spaceport               90  66  91  68 /  50  40  20  20
Lake Roberts            79  56  84  58 /  60  50  50  30
Hurley                  84  61  87  64 /  60  50  40  30
Cliff                   84  60  89  61 /  60  50  40  30
Mule Creek              84  61  88  61 /  60  50  40  30
Faywood                 85  62  88  64 /  60  50  40  30
Animas                  88  66  89  69 /  60  50  30  30
Hachita                 88  66  89  67 /  60  50  30  30
Antelope Wells          87  65  88  67 /  60  50  40  30
Cloverdale              82  62  86  65 /  60  50  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17 Hefner



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