Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262115
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
215 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT ARRIVED THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTH AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES BY. WARMER AND
BASICALLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS A NEW STORM
SYSTEM GATHERS STRENGTH TO OUR WEST. THIS STORM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW AS WELL AS ANOTHER COOL DOWN STARTING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AFTERNOON WEATHER MAP SHOWS WHAT IS LEFT OF A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH BREEZY EAST FLOW
CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT IN COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOWCASE A LOW STRATUS DECK EXTENDING FROM
HUDSPETH COUNTY NORTH TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME FREEZING FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE A DECENT 100 KT JET
ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE DISTURBANCE THAT SHOULD HELP PRODUCE ENOUGH
BROAD SCALE ASCENT TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE FIRST PERIOD. EXPECTING QPF FROM
THIS WAVE TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ADDITIONAL COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SACRAMENTOS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY AS THE COOL EASTERLY
SURFACE PUSH CONTINUES. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST FORCING AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF HERE. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT LOW END POPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY
BETTER 700 MB VERTICAL VELOCITIES ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL BE IN FOR A QUICK WARM UP
OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE UPPER LOW MAY CUT OFF BRIEFLY OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY OPENING UP AND EJECTING
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME
MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN STRONGER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN RATHER BREEZY AFTERNOONS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EVEN STRONGER MONDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM HEADS
THIS DIRECTION AND DRAGS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DOWN AS WELL AS BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL START OFF QUITE HIGH AT AROUND 8000 FEET BUT QUICKLY DROP TO
BETWEEN 5000 AND 5500 FEET MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IT IS AT THIS
POINT WHERE MODEL SPREAD BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH A GENERAL COMPROMISE AND LEFT LOW END POPS THAT FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS IT APPEARS THAT
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/0000Z-28/0000Z...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS THRU PD FEW-SCT040-060 SCT-BKN120-150...EXCEPT
MVFR TO IFR OVER ERN SAC MTS AND SOUTH INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE
CIGS COULD BE UNDER BKN010. SCT 1-3SM -SHSN POSSIBLE OVER SACRAMENTO
MTS BTWN 00Z-12Z. E TO SE WINDS OF 10-20G30KTS WILL DECREASE TO AOB
12KTS BY 06Z...EXCEPT ON WRN MTN SLOPES. WINDS W OF DIVIDE WILL
SHIFT TO SW 15-20G25KTS AFT 18Z WITH ERN AREAS BACK INTO THE
10-20G30KTS RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN SIERRA COUNTY
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHICH
WILL BRING SOME WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE GILA REGION. THE FIRST OF TWO TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON MOST DAYS INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 32  57  39  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           24  51  28  64  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              30  57  35  66  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              31  49  36  62  42 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              19  36  27  44  32 /  40  10  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   31  54  37  58  43 /  20   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             24  53  35  58  39 /   0   0  10  20  20
DEMING                  31  61  36  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               29  61  37  65  39 /   0   0   0   0  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      32  58  42  69  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               24  40  28  62  37 /  10  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            30  58  35  69  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              27  46  34  61  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  29  57  37  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            29  58  36  70  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          33  51  36  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           22  55  29  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   32  58  35  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                36  63  42  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               31  50  35  65  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 18  38  26  53  36 /  50  20  10   0   0
MESCALERO               20  43  28  52  33 /  40  10  10   0   0
TIMBERON                21  41  27  53  36 /  30  10   0   0   0
WINSTON                 26  48  35  50  39 /  20   0  10  20  20
HILLSBORO               28  52  37  60  43 /  10   0   0  20  10
SPACEPORT               27  55  32  63  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            24  51  34  55  37 /   0   0  10  30  30
HURLEY                  25  54  34  60  39 /   0   0   0  20  20
CLIFF                   25  59  35  64  39 /   0   0  10  30  30
MULE CREEK              20  57  29  58  33 /   0   0  10  30  40
FAYWOOD                 27  52  37  60  41 /   0   0   0  20  20
ANIMAS                  32  65  43  68  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 29  64  42  68  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          33  67  45  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              36  62  44  66  41 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/GRZYWACZ




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.