Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 281144
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
544 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY...BUT THEN WE WILL BE
DRY THROUGH THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR MONSOON HAS BEEN PRETTY ACTIVE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS...BUT AFTER TODAY IT IS GOING TO TAKE A BIT OF A BREAK. FOR
TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN HELPING TO FUEL OUR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FINALLY BE
SLIDING TO OUR EAST. IN ITS WAKE DRIER AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE TO HELP FUEL A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT I THINK THEY WILL BE WEAK
AND SHORT LIVED. AFTER TODAY THE DRIER AIR REALLY TAKES HOLD. WE
WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE COMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WE WILL INITIALLY SEE A ZONAL FLOW FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT THEN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

WE HAVE BEEN ENJOYING SOME TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT AS WE DRY OUT AND THEN AS THE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WE WILL SEE OUR HIGHS CREEP
BACK ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE
HIGHS RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR NOW LOWLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN JUST A LITTLE BELOW THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK.
THE ECMWF IS INDICATING THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TOP THE 100
DEGREE MARK...BUT FOR NOW I`M STICKING WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GFS MODEL SOLUTION.

BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY BACK TO THE EAST. CONSIDERING THAT IT IS STILL MONSOON
SEASON THERE WILL BE MOISTURE LURKING ALL AROUND US AND IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OFF WE WILL SLOWLY START TO SEE THE MOISTURE RETURN SO
I HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW
IT IS JUST BEYOND THE TIME FRAME FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z-29/12Z
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. DRIER AIR WAS QUICKLY
MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
REMAINING MOISTURE TO HELP FUEL A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THEY SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. IF CLOUDS DO FORM
THEY SHOULD STAY SCATTERED AT SCT080. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER SEVERAL WEEKS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WE ARE
MOVING INTO A MUCH DRIER PATTERN. TODAY THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO HELP FUEL A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THEN
AFTER TODAY WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH RAIN ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
40`S AND WE WILL SEE MIN RH`S FALL TO THE MID TEENS IN THE
LOWLANDS TO THE MID 20`S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS WEEKEND. WE MAY
SEE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 92  68  95  70  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           87  66  94  67  92 /  20   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              91  64  95  65  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              91  61  94  62  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              66  50  73  51  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   88  64  93  65  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             82  58  88  59  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  92  64  95  65  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               90  64  95  65  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      93  68  94  69  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               93  65  99  66  98 /  20   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            92  71  96  72  96 /  20   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              86  66  90  67  91 /  20   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  92  69  99  70  96 /  20   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            91  68  96  69  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          90  66  95  67  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           89  63  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   90  65  96  66  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                90  66  93  67  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               92  66  95  67  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 76  56  82  57  81 /  30   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               78  55  85  56  83 /  20   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                77  56  82  57  84 /  20   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 79  56  81  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               86  62  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               89  64  91  65  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            82  57  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  88  61  91  62  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   88  59  91  60  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              83  54  88  55  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 83  59  87  60  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  90  65  95  66  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 91  63  95  64  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          90  61  95  62  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              86  61  90  62  89 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE





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