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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192115
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
311 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BORDERLAND
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE HIGH
BEGINS DRIFTING OVER NEW MEXICO AND BY NEXT THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF THE HIGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH STILL AN INCREASE OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS.
VERY SHARP DRYLINE WAS SITUATED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...WITH ABOUT A 40 DEGREE DEWPOINT GRADIENT THIS LINE HAS
SINCE MOVED EASTWARD AND IS NOW MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY
WHERE THE MOISTURE IS STILL DEEPEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER HIGH WILL STAY MOSTLY PARKED IN
PLACE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS ALLOWING WEAKER
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA. SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL DEVELOP IN THIS FLOW...AND IT`S
PLACEMENT WILL BE THE WHOLE KEY TO THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SPREAD POPS TO MOST AREAS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT HAVE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE EAST (SUBJECT TO CHANGE OF COURSE). NOT EXPECTING MANY
IF ANY STORMS TO REACH SEVERE DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA WOULD LIKELY BE THE PLACE IF ANY OCCUR...AS THAT AREA
WILL SEE MUCAPES OF AROUND 500-1500 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
PW`S AROUND ONE INCH...ALONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VEERING SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD
OVER NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY AND COLORADO BY THURSDAY. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS AND THIS PATTERN WITH
THE UPPER RIDGING FROM COLORADO/NEW MEXICO OVER TO THE ATLANTIC
BASIN COULD BE THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOON (HOPEFULLY).
DESPITE THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP IN THIS PATTERN...THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AS MAIN UPPER
TRAJECTORY STILL IS MOSTLY CONTINENTAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z-21/00Z.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER EASTERN
HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES. WINDS GENERALLY SW-W 10-15
KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS. WINDS IN THE GILA REGION
WILL BE STRONGER AT 15-25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 KTS INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL REMAIN VERY
DRY WITH POOR RH RECOVERY ONLY IN THE TEENS OVERNIGHT...THEN BACK
DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ANS LOW TEENS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST AND PICKING UP TO 10
TO 15 MPH OVER MOST LOCATIONS TOMORROW. WINDS OVER NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE GILA WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE THURSDAY PM. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GILA REGION...MAINLY CATRON
COUNTY...THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS FROM THE BOOTHEEL INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GILA. MINIMUM RH TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR 20% EAST. HAINES
INDICES GENERALLY 4 OR 5 THURSDAY...EXCEPT 6 OVER THE GILA REGION.
HAINES INDICES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 76 100  75  99  76 /  10  10  10  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           72  97  71  97  72 /  20  20  30  10  20
LAS CRUCES              71  99  71  99  72 /  10   0  10  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              72  98  68  97  69 /  10  10  20  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              52  78  50  77  51 /  20  30  20  20  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   74  98  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  10  20
SILVER CITY             61  92  60  93  60 /   0   0  10  10  20
DEMING                  68 100  67  98  68 /   0   0  10  10  20
LORDSBURG               66  98  67  98  68 /   0   0  10  10  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      77  99  78  99  79 /  10  10  10  10  20
DELL CITY               67  97  65  97  66 /  20  20  30  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            74 104  75 103  76 /  20  20  30  10  20
LOMA LINDA              64  91  62  92  62 /  10  10  20  10  20
FABENS                  72 102  72 100  73 /  10  10  10  10  20
SANTA TERESA            73  99  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  97  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           66  98  65  98  66 /  10   0  10  10  20
HATCH                   70  95  69  95  70 /  10   0  10  10  20
COLUMBUS                72  99  70  99  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
OROGRANDE               72  99  70  99  71 /  10  10  20  10  20
MAYHILL                 59  85  58  83  59 /  20  30  20  20  30
MESCALERO               56  88  54  88  55 /  20  30  20  20  30
TIMBERON                56  84  54  84  55 /  20  20  30  20  30
WINSTON                 56  89  55  88  56 /   0   0  10  10  20
HILLSBORO               63  92  64  93  64 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPACEPORT               68  97  67  97  68 /   0   0  10  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            57  91  57  90  58 /   0  10  10  10  20
HURLEY                  63  93  62  94  62 /   0   0  10  10  20
CLIFF                   49  97  51  96  55 /   0   0  10  10  20
MULE CREEK              46  95  47  97  47 /   0   0  10  10  20
FAYWOOD                 63  93  62  93  62 /   0   0  10  10  20
ANIMAS                  67  98  67  98  68 /   0   0  10  10  20
HACHITA                 68  99  67  98  68 /   0   0  10  10  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          70 100  69 100  70 /   0   0  10  10  20
CLOVERDALE              66  93  65  95  65 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ110.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ110.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/PARK