Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 301801

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
101 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Water vapor loop indicated a short wave over northern ND/MT border
and was moving to the north northeast. Light showers were occurring
over western ND and may clip the northwest zones this afternoon.
Tweaked pops to account for precip in western ND.

UPDATE Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Clouds and fog have moved into the southeast zones and clouds with a
short wave over the ND/MT border will spread clouds over the
west/northwest zones. Updated sky conditions to match current
conditions. Also updated hourly temps in the southeast zones with
clouds and fog.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Models generally in agreement with synoptic pattern. Much of the
region will remain influenced by ridging...although a portion of
the DVL basin may get clipped by forcing (weak showers) from weak
upper waves ejecting from trough about to crash onshore across the
western CONUS. At any rate...not many impacts expected. Cloud
trends will likely be the biggest challenge with an area of low
ceilings expanding westward across northern Minnesota. Most
guidance indicates these clouds will affect areas east of the
valley during the morning hours today...then dissipate or advect
north this afternoon (which makes sense given the sfc to 950mb

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Saturday-Sunday...Ridging remains in place this
weekend...beginning to transition to southwest flow aloft by later
on Sunday. Above normal temperatures expected. Shower chances will
hinge exact timing of any upper waves ejecting from western CONUS
trough...enough of a chance to include low end PoPs for the DVL
basin later Sunday into Sunday night. QPF minimal.

Monday-Thursday...Monday starts out with southwest flow aloft,
which looks to set up a southwest to northeast oriented surface
boundary. Hard to nail down exactly where this boundary would set
up this far out, but at this point it starts out over northwest ND
on Monday and finally pushes east of the FA on Wednesday. Until
this boundary moves east, temps look to remain quite mild. Mon/Tue
look to be above normal, Wed falling back toward normal, and then
cooler on Thu.

Moisture looks fairly robust for early October, with sfc dew points
in the mid to upper 50s both Monday and Tuesday. Guidance puts pcpn
chances all through the long term period. However, the best chances
may occur along and behind the above mentioned boundary. Therefore
the best chances would be over the Devils Lake region Mon/Tue, before
spreading into eastern ND on Wed. The closed 500mb low moves right
overhead on Thu, bringing equal chances for pcpn across the entire


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

IFR cigs over the eastern zones was slowly rising. Visible satellite
loop indicated the IFR clouds over northern MN was was shifting east
and decreasing in areal coverage. To the west VFR cigs most 10
thousand ft and higher. VFR conditions are expected in the west for
today. IFR conditions will again move in from the southeast again
tonight and expect to be across much of the forecast area by 12Z Sat
and rise to the VFR condition by late morning or early afternoon




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