Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 220527 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1127 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CHALLENGES INCLUDE HOW LONG LOW MVFR CIGS PERSIST ON MONDAY
MORNING...TIMING OF WIND SHIFT AND CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE...THEN
TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATER IN
THE DAY.

THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE METROPLEX CONTINUE UNDER A CANOPY
OF MVFR STRATUS MOSTLY BELOW 2 KFT AND A BROKEN CIRRUS CANOPY
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE STRATUS CANOPY THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY...BEFORE VEERING LOW
LEVEL FLOW HELPS CLEAR OUT THE LOW LEVELS WITH BROKEN CIRRUS AND
VFR CONDITIONS.

SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING...THEN
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AROUND 15 KTS BY MIDDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE
BRIEF CROSSWIND ISSUES ON NORTH-SOUTH RUNWAYS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE BY 21Z WITH NW WINDS 15-20 KTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
DECOUPLE BELOW 10 KTS AFTER NIGHTFALL MONDAY EVENING.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH AND A LEE ROCKIES SURFACE TROUGH BOTH INTENSIFY WHILE
MOVING EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE CLEARING SKIES OVER WESTERN
COUNTIES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN OVERRUN BY MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN SPILLING OUT OF THE ROCKIES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
GRID UPDATES PLANNED.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AS TWO VIGOROUS LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHS AFFECT THE REGION. APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HARD TO COME BY.

IN THE NEAR-TERM...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD FIELD OVER MOST OF OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS HAS PARTIALLY ERODED ALONG ITS WESTERN
FLANKS TODAY. THIS GRADUAL WEST TO EAST CLEARING TREND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...PERHAPS APPROACHING I-35
BEFORE CALLING IT A NIGHT. WHERE CLEARING DOES OCCUR AROUND
SUNSET...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...BUT THINK
SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO LIMIT AREAL EXTENT AND
INTENSITY. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AND DRY
ADVECTION ON MONDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MIX OUT MOST OF THE
REST OF THE STRATO-CU FIELD...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE MUCH OF
THE DAY (ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35) TO ACCOMPLISH THIS TASK. HIGHER
THICKNESSES AND SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE (THRU INCREASED CIRRUS AND
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS) SHOULD ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST...AND THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK...WILL BE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ALSO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. ALL MODELS...AND NOTABLY
THE EUROPEAN AND TTU WRF...EVOLVE ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND
MOISTURE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. MUCH OF
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE CONFINED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF
I-35...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SCATTERED POPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
IN NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST OF THE RAIN THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD EXIT
THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER STEADY WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR ON THE HEELS OF THE TUESDAY
SYSTEM...WITH CHRISTMAS STILL LOOKING LIKE A WARM...BREEZY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. ANOTHER LONG-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD SET UP SHOP BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER...BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT AND A NEW ROUND OF
NORMAL TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS.

BRADSHAW

66/25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  66  45  51  35 /  10   5  30  30   5
WACO, TX              48  69  46  52  34 /   5   5  20  30   5
PARIS, TX             46  61  45  50  34 /  10  10  30  40  10
DENTON, TX            46  65  42  49  34 /  10   5  30  30   5
MCKINNEY, TX          46  65  43  49  34 /  10   5  30  30   5
DALLAS, TX            48  66  46  51  36 /  10   5  30  30   5
TERRELL, TX           48  65  46  51  35 /  10  10  30  30   5
CORSICANA, TX         49  67  47  52  35 /  10   5  20  30   5
TEMPLE, TX            47  70  46  52  34 /  10   5  10  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  67  41  51  33 /   5   5  30  30   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30





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