Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 280439 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE ACTIVE WEATHER BOTH TO THE SOUTH AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. A CLOSED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MEANDER INLAND OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HIGH TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTH TEXAS
AND COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE AS WELL. TO THE NORTHWEST...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW...ALLOWING A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HELP IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
WELL REMOVED FROM THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. WITH NORTH TEXAS IN BETWEEN
THE TWO SYSTEMS...NOT MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED.
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING BUT AT
THIS TIME THE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
TOWARD THE END OF THE DFW VALID PERIOD...HEADED INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING
AND POSE MORE OF A THREAT TO THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS. THIS CAN BE
ADDRESSED IN FURTHER UPDATES.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WE WILL JUST SEND OUT A
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED EVENING STORMS. NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN 3 UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER PHENOMENON...AND AS A RESULT ITS BEEN A QUIET DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN PUSHED NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA AS A TUTT SYSTEM SPINS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SO FAR CONVECTION
TODAY HAS BEEN OCCURRING NORTH...WEST...AND SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LACK OF CONVECTION TODAY CAN
BE ATTRIBUTED TO DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST IS NOW BEING
INVESTIGATED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BUT IS UNLIKELY TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEFORE MOVING INLAND TOMORROW. THE
RICH MOISTURE SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM WITH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES
WILL BE DRAWN NORTH STARTING TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINUES MOVING EAST. FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WILL CARRY 20 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION WHERE THE RICHEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY
EVENING...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BUT BROAD TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AND
MOST OF THE CONUS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVER THE WEEKEND BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES. THE NAM EVEN BRINGS PWAT
VALUES UP TO 2.5 INCHES ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF RICH
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35/35W
CORRIDOR AND WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. WITH THE
RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR AT TIMES IN ISOLATED AREAS RESULTING IN LOW-LYING OR STREET
FLOODING. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE RAIN...SOME LOCATIONS
WILL RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL THAN OTHERS. SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE OTHERS SEE LITTLE
TO NONE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE START OF SEPTEMBER. ON
MONDAY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH NORTH TEXAS
BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY APPROACH THE
RED RIVER OR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION THAT MAY
REACH OR CROSS THE RED RIVER.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  97  77  92  76 /  10  10  30  40  40
WACO, TX              74  97  75  93  74 /  10  20  20  30  30
PARIS, TX             71  93  73  91  73 /  10  20  40  40  40
DENTON, TX            74  96  74  91  73 /  10  10  40  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          72  95  74  91  72 /  10  10  40  40  40
DALLAS, TX            79  97  78  92  76 /  10  10  30  40  40
TERRELL, TX           75  95  76  92  74 /  10  20  30  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         76  96  76  93  73 /  10  20  10  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            73  96  74  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  97  72  92  72 /  10  10  40  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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