Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251955
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
255 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

The main challenge is convective chances the next few days with a
return to seasonably warm temperatures. A modest recovery in the
airmass in the wake of the morning MCS may be sufficient to allow
a few showers/storms to develop toward 00Z across southern Kansas.
Otherwise, somewhat drier/more stable air will continue to advect
across the I-70 corridor tonight into Tuesday. Diurnal heating
will result in MLCAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG for locations
along/southeast of the turnpike on Tuesday afternoon, so will keep
a modest PoP in these areas. Low level moisture return from
Tuesday night into the mid-week periods in combination with a
periodically disturbed northwest flow regime aloft across the
northern Plains/Midwest may support somewhat better chances for
convection across central and eastern Kansas.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A transition from a periodically wet northwest flow regime aloft
and seasonably warm temperatures to a hot and dry pattern looks to
develop by late in the weekend into early next week as the upper
ridge builds in earnest again across the central Plains.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A weak convectively-enhanced vort max over south-central Kansas at
midday, is expected to drift very slowly east-southeastward
through this evening. Pockets of diurnal heating/instability under
and just east/southeast of this feature may allow widely separated
storms during mid-late afternoon in south-central/southeast KS
before diminishing early this evening. Will include a brief period
of VCTS at the HUT, ICT, and CNU terminals and VCSH at SLN early
this afternoon. A surface high will continue to build over Iowa
through tonight, with light east-northeasterly winds tonight.
Patchy IFR ceilings/visibilities may develop early Tuesday morning
due to recent rainfall, light winds, and mostly clear skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  91  71  91 /  10  20  10  20
Hutchinson      68  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  20
Newton          69  90  70  90 /  10  10  10  20
ElDorado        70  89  70  89 /  20  20  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   72  90  72  90 /  30  20  20  20
Russell         67  92  68  92 /  10  10  20  20
Great Bend      67  92  68  92 /  10  10  20  20
Salina          69  93  70  93 /  10  10  20  30
McPherson       68  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  30
Coffeyville     72  91  73  91 /  20  30  20  30
Chanute         71  90  72  90 /  20  20  10  30
Iola            70  90  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    71  90  72  90 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...JMC



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