Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231927
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
227 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Tonight-Tuesday:
Anticipate winds will decouple shortly after sunset, however with
surface pressure gradient increases during the night and expect
winds to increase between 0600 and 1200 UTC. This could lead to
some early lows. Temperatures in southeast KS may be a bit cooler
as light winds will persist longer. Good mixing expected on
Tuesday, leading to another breezy day. Winds could flirt with
advisory criteria again mainly in central KS, but confidence in
solidly making criteria is low and will let mid shift make the
headline call if needed. With winds diminishing Tuesday night,
frost will be possible in Southeast KS.

Wednesday-Thursday night:
Winds diminish and become more westerly on Wednesday. Prime
downslope flow in concert with increasing 850MB temperatures set
stage for big temperature recovery on Wednesday. The next cold
front, with more substantial cold air advection, will arrive by
daybreak Thursday in central KS and exit southeast KS by mid
afternoon. Winds will probably be at advisory criteria behind the
front. Lows Thursday morning will likely be relatively mild given
return flow, but little recovery during the day due to the
moderate-strong cold air advection. Winds diminish after sunset,
and temperatures may need to be lowered Thursday night. Freezing
temperatures appear probable for most of central KS Thursday
night. It is possible if wind diminish early enough that nearly
all of the area could drop at or below freezing except near the OK
border in Southeast KS. Lack of moisture will keep frontal
passage dry.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

For any areas that do not freeze Friday morning, Saturday morning
will be the end of the growing season with forecast lows in the
mid to upper 20s. Medium range models are in fairly good
agreement early in the period with early trough/western ridge long
wave pattern. Differences show up late in this period with next
shortwave coming down western ridge. The ECMWF is more amplified.
Both show front across the forecast area on Monday, but the ECMWF
hangs the front up, while the more progressive GFS pushes the
front out of the area Monday night. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Steep low level lapse rates in the cold advection regime will
support strong/gusty north-northwest winds until sunset. Shallow
decoupling will allow some abatement in speeds tonight, though
stronger winds atop the inversion will result in low level wind
shear late in the night. This will break down rather quickly
Tuesday morning allowing stronger winds to reach the surface again
a few hours after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to
prevail with just a FEW-SCT higher level clouds.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Gusty winds in wake of the cold front tomorrow will result in very
high GFDI values across most of the area. Very high values are
also forecast across central and south central KS on Thursday
afternoon. This is occurring in the wake of a cold front as well.
-Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    45  61  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      42  63  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          43  57  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        42  58  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   41  61  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         42  60  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      42  62  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          42  61  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       42  61  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     43  61  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         41  60  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            41  59  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    41  60  36  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>052.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...PJH


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