Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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954
FXUS63 KICT 270851
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
251 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Areas of dense fog will be possible over eastern Kansas early this
morning where residual low level moisture/light easterly winds was
causing the fog to expand west.

Richer low level moisture across Texas/Oklahoma will begin to spread
northward into central/eastern Kansas for today into Tuesday. Enough
moisture advection/lift could generate some rain showers and
possible thunderstorms over southeast Kansas this afternoon. A lull
in the precipitation is expected for tonight into Tuesday morning
before next upper level wave affects the region later in the day on
Tuesday. A stalled out frontal boundary will keep cooler
temperatures in place across central Kansas on Tuesday, and much
warmer temperatures will build across southern Kansas. Lift in the
mid-levels ahead of the approaching upper-level wave looks to
generate some light rain over central Kansas Tuesday afternoon. The
precipitation could change over to snow Tuesday night across central
Kansas as the colder air pours into the area, however the lift from
the upper level wave begins to quickly shift east later Tuesday
night. This could leave a smaller window of possible snowfall for
central Kansas, with little to no accumulation expected at this
juncture.

Meanwhile a very moisture rich/unstable airmass for late February
will be in place across eastern Oklahoma, Southeast KS, and Missouri
which will set the stage for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/night.
There is a chance for a few strong or even severe storms to
initiate over far southeast KS Tuesday afternoon before shifting
east of the area. Cooler air will overspread the area on Wednesday
as surface high pressure builds across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

The weather pattern favors a warming trend for this period heading
into the weekend along with dry conditions. The winds will also be
on the increase for Friday into the weekend as surface pressure
gradient increases from lee troughing over the high plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

A light southeast surface wind flow will develop across the area
tonight, increasing from the south during Monday. Isentropic lift
toward dawn will deepen through the low levels during Monday
morning resulting in development and northward expansion of
stratus cigs and patchy fog. Confidence remains high on mainly
MVFR category. Widely scattered showers are possible in the late
afternoon and evening across southeast Kansas.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Increasing winds and warm temperatures will create very high
grassland fire danger on Tuesday afternoon across south central
and southeast Kansas. Very high grassland fire danger levels will
affect much of the region during the afternoon hours again on
Wednesday, Friday, and into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    59  48  70  35 /  10  10  10  30
Hutchinson      60  45  65  32 /  10   0  10  40
Newton          59  48  67  33 /  10  10  10  30
ElDorado        58  50  71  35 /  10  10  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   62  50  73  36 /  20  10   0  30
Russell         64  37  55  28 /  10   0  20  40
Great Bend      64  40  58  29 /  10   0  20  50
Salina          61  45  61  31 /  10   0  20  50
McPherson       60  45  63  31 /  10   0  10  40
Coffeyville     64  55  78  40 /  30  10  30  30
Chanute         62  54  75  37 /  30  10  20  40
Iola            62  54  75  37 /  30  20  20  40
Parsons-KPPF    63  55  76  39 /  30  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ070>072-
095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ



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