Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 220739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ON TAP FOR KANSAS TODAY WITH UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S...WITH HEAT INDICES LOOKING TO STAY JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS HOWEVER IF DEWPOINTS DONT MIX OUT LIKE EXPECTED THEN HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD REACH 105 DEGREES. MEANWHILE THE MOST LIKELY
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPSLOPE REGIME OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS ALONG THE FRONT. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD PUSH ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST...THUS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE STORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL MIGRATE FURTHER NORTH FOR SATURDAY WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATER IN THE DAY WITH
RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IT WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED...BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT-TIME HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT COULD ARRIVE BY MID-WEEK AS LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WOULD PUSH SOME COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
SURFACE TROF THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CATEGORY OR
LOWER...THOUGH DUE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT MENTION TO VCTS AT KRSL AND KSLN AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER ON FRIDAY ARE MUCH MORE
REMOTE FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST DURING FRIDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  75 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     101  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON         100  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        99  74 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  75 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL        101  71  98  72 /  10  20  10  20
GREAT BEND     101  72  99  72 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA         101  73  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON      100  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     98  74  99  74 /  10   0  10   0
CHANUTE         97  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
IOLA            97  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    98  74  99  73 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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