Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 012000
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

LOOP OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA ENDING AT
1935Z SHOWS A MESO-LOW IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THAT IS RETROGRADING
TO THE WEST SLOWLY. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EXTENDS INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AND MANIFESTS ITSELF WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS. TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...ANOTHER ADVANCING SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THEN INTO ILLINOIS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE REGION BELOW NORMAL IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH MONDAY...THERE REALLY IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW. SOME OF THESE MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW
STORMS TO EASTERN KANSAS. THE PREDICTABILITY WITH THESE IS QUITE
LOW. BEST CHANCE IS SUNDAY.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN
SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS
NEAR 70S.

THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
REALLY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFIC TIMING AND LOCATION TO
STORMS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG AT THIS
TIME...BUT NO STRONG SIGNAL THAT WOULD INDICATE A WIDESPREAD
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKING AT THE SHEAR BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

AT 17Z...A WEAK NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KS
& SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE KICT JURISDICTION THIS AFTERNOON...THEREBY
KEEPING WINDS <10KTS FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. IT`LL BE EXCELLENT
FLYING WEATHER THRU SAT AFTERNOON & LIKELY BEYOND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  87  66  89 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  87  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          65  87  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        66  86  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  88  65  89 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         61  90  64  91 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  88  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          63  89  66  93 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       63  87  65  90 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  87  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         65  85  64  88 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            64  85  63  87 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    65  86  64  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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