Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLBF 140524 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NWRN ONTARIO WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT OVER NRN MANITOBA WHILE A MID LEVEL JET
STREAK EXTENDED FROM NRN SASKATCHEWAN...SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
EAST INTO WISCONSIN. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER WESTERN UTAH
WITH SHORTWAVES NOTED OVER SRN IDAHO...AND OVER NERN COLORADO. WV
IMAGERY AS OF 2 PM CDT...AS A COUPLE OF AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST WAS OVER NERN NEBRASKA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK...AND A SECOND OVER SERN
WYOMING INVOF OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WESTERN
WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MONTANA...INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO SRN MINNESOTA. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WERE GUSTY OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. ATTM...THE
COLDEST AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT...WAS JUST BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 76 AT
IMPERIAL TO 88 AT NORTH PLATTE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...AN
UPDATED FORECAST IS APPROPRIATE. OTHERWISE...I USED A BLEND OF THE
CURRENT FORECAS...THE RAP13 AND THE HRRR FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
THE FRONT COMING DOWN LATE TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER AT LEAST A
FEW STORMS AS IT ENCOUNTERS DECENT MOISTURE AND AT LEAST
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECASTING CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DECENT FROPA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS EVENING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
FORECAST AREA AS CONVECTION WILL RIDE SE FROM SERN WYOMING.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IN THE
VICINITY OF A JET STREAK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
CANADA. LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z MONDAY. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS. ATTM...THE BEST CHANCES HOWEVER
WILL BE IN THE EASTERN CWA...WHERE STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL RESIDE. THIS FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
WILL BE FORCED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DRY CONDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE
NORTHEAST...TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. NAM HAS A
BETTER HANDLE ON ACTUAL WEATHER THIS MORNING. GFS SEEMS TO BE OVER
DONE WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TERM AS COOL
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS DRAWS COLDER AIR SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK. CONTRAST
BETWEEN THIS COLD LOW AND WARM UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS OKLAHOMA MONDAY
NIGHT AND PILE UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES IN WYOMING
AND COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST AS COOL DRY AIR FILTERS INTO NORTHERN PLAINS. NAM IS HINTING
AT STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING IN UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
THE PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. STILL
USING ENSEMBLES WITH ZERO STANDARD DEVIATION LOWS JUST ABOVE
RECORDS. RECORD LOWS FOR NORTH PLATTE IN THE MONTH OF JULY...ONE
50 AND ALL OF THE REST IN THE 40S AND FOR VALENTINE 2 RECORD LOWS
IN THE 30S THE REST IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 55
NEAR IMPERIAL TO 48 AT VALENTINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...MIXING AND DEWPOINT. AS UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BOUNDARY TO THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST AND PLACE SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
HAVE GONE WITH SHOWERS AND ISO T. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S WITH MORE CLOUD COVER BETTER MIXED
LAYER IN RETURN FLOW AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WITH AREAS OF SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. PRECIPITATION
ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING AS STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND IN THE 80S SATURDAY. INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE LATEST RADAR COMPOSITE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER...THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXPECTED EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SO OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT ANY ONE SITE.
STILL...AS THINGS EVOLVE IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO INCLUDE TS OR
VCTS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR LBF AND/OR VTN IF A PROJECTED
PATH IS TOWARD EITHER TERMINAL.

ALSO...ONE SHORT TERM MODEL IS SIGNALING FG/BR AT LBF 10-13Z. OTHER
SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS DO NOT INDICATE FG/BR SO...FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST FOR LBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.